The $1.25 million, Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes Saturday at Saratoga drew an exceptionally sturdy subject of eight together with Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Offered by Mohegan Solar winner Fierceness, Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes winner Dornoch and Thorpedo Anna, who’s coming off a win within the Grade 1 Teaching Membership American Oaks and can try and grow to be the primary filly to win the “Mid-Summer season Derby” since 1915.
The Travers depth doesn’t finish there because the Jim Dandy runner-up and third place finishers, Sierra Leone and Batten Down, respectively, are additionally entered in addition to the one-two finishers within the Curlin Stakes final month, Unmatched Knowledge and Company Energy. Honor Marie rounds out the sphere off a rallying fourth-place effort within the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes behind Dornoch when final seen in June.
Evaluation and prime win contenders:
The way in which this race will likely be run within the early phases will virtually definitely resolve which horse might, or might not, be in rivalry to win the race within the ultimate eighth of a mile. 5 of the eight contenders is perhaps discovered on the lead within the opening quarter mile, or monitoring simply off the tempo. These which might be huge going across the first flip or expend an excessive amount of power attempting to get the lead could also be discovered wanting within the ultimate phases. Contemplating two of these, Dornoch and Fierceness, draw the skin two spots within the gate, jockey technique throughout the first portion of the race could also be important in figuring out whether or not both can win on condition that they earned current Equibase Velocity Figures of 107 and 108, respectively. Even when repeated, these figures supply no superior margin towards 4 different horses’ finest current figures: Thorpedo Anna (105), Sierra Leone (106), Unmatched Knowledge (107) and Company Energy (105).
Contemplating Unmatched Knowledge received the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga 5 weeks in the past main from begin to end, I consider jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will attempt to get the lead within the opening strides. Thorpedo Anna was second for the primary mile when successful each the DK Horse Acorn Stakes and Teaching Membership American Oaks at Saratoga and might take up second place simply. That forces Dornoch and Fierceness both to accept being three or 4 paths huge going into the primary flip or to make use of lots of power attempting to get in entrance of Unmatched Knowledge and Thorpedo Anna earlier than that time. Then again, if both Fierceness or Dornoch do get the lead earlier than the primary flip, they could use an excessive amount of power to take action and will likely be prone to being handed within the stretch, with each Thorpedo Anna and Unmatched Knowledge settling behind in second and third or third and fourth. That state of affairs advantages each Unmatched Knowledge and Thorpedo Anna. Unmatched Knowledge received after stalking in second early one race earlier than the Curlin, and Thorpedo Anna has confirmed very profitable coming from way back to fourth after a quarter-mile to win.
Because it seems, each Thorpedo Anna and Unmatched Knowledge have an edge based mostly on their positions within the gate and the probably early tempo eventualities. This could form up as a incredible race, and they’re the 2 horses with a finest probability to win for my part. Thorpedo Anna is on a sample of bettering Equibase Velocity Figures, having gone from 94 successful the Longines Kentucky Oaks, to 99 successful the Acorn Stakes, after which to 105 within the CCA Oaks, and for the reason that latter pair of races had been at Saratoga this filly will get slight desire to win the Travers and etch her title within the historical past books as the primary feminine winner since Girl Rotha 109 years in the past. Unmatched Knowledge can be on an bettering sample, from 92 in his debut in Could, to 100 successful in June, after which to 107 when victorious within the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga.
The ”X” issue is Company Energy, who could also be ignored within the wagering regardless of lacking by one size on the finish within the Curlin behind Unmatched Knowledge. He too is on a sample for enchancment, going from a 94 determine three races again to 103 successful the Sir Barton Stakes Sponsored by Brandon and Diannah Perry to Profit TAA in Could after which to 105 within the Curlin. Since his effort within the Curlin got here off a two month layoff, Company Energy might enhance once more. Moreover, it have to be famous his sire Curlin leads all sires of horses within the 2024 Travers by way of graded stakes winners at 10 furlongs on grime, having eight completely different horses which have received related races (from 31 horses). Coach Shug McGaughey received the 2019 Travers with Code of Honor, who received the Dwyer Stakes one month earlier, with the identical 105 determine Company Energy earned in his most up-to-date race. I’ll strongly maintain this in thoughts when contemplating bets involving this race as a result of the sample is unattainable to disregard.
About the remaining: Dornoch has proven lots of combat in his final two begins – the Belmont Stakes and the Haskell Stakes – the place he led at a number of factors in every of the races however then was second with an eighth of a mile to go. In every occasion, Dornoch discovered one thing additional each bodily and mentally to prevail, and definitely the 106 and 107 figures earned, respectively, match with the perfect within the subject if repeated. There’s nonetheless a query of the place he could also be positioned within the opening furlongs of this 12 months’s Travers. He may very well be third, fourth of fifth going into the primary flip or across the flip, which is unfamiliar to him, or he may very well be vying for the lead and expending lots of power going within the early phases. Each eventualities aren’t conducive to the form of efforts he put forth within the Belmont or Haskell, so it could be tough for him to win his third straight race.
Sierra Leone will probably be final or second to final (behind Honor Marie) within the early phases and make his normal later run. Nonetheless, as proven within the Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve (second), Belmont (third) and Jim Dandy (second) he often has his work minimize out for him, though it have to be famous the 109 determine earned within the Derby is sweet sufficient to win if repeated and if not one of the others improves to that stage. In any other case, there’s little question Sierra Leone can rise up for second or third within the late phases as soon as extra.
Fierceness bought again into successful kind with a really sharp effort within the Jim Dandy with a 108 determine, virtually pretty much as good because the 110 determine earned successful the Curlin Florida Derby this previous spring. Nonetheless, as talked about above, I simply don’t see a tempo state of affairs which favors him repeating both of these efforts on this subject.
Batten Down was no match for Fierceness and Sierra Leone within the Jim Dandy as he completed 5 ¾ lengths in again of the latter. His finest determine is 98 and it will take important enchancment to run in addition to the highest contenders on this subject. Honor Marie received the Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes final November with a 98 determine and earned the identical determine when a well-beaten fourth within the Belmont Stakes behind Dornoch.
Win Contenders in desire/likelihood order:
