Paul Skenes pitching for the Indianapolis Indians in 2024; CC by License 2.0
In the event you’ve saved up with baseball media not too long ago you’ve most certainly seen Paul Skenes’ identify lots. Paul Skenes was the #1 general decide within the 2023 MLB draft out of LSU. He was a giant a part of LSU’s success in 2023, the place they ended up successful the Faculty World Collection. Skenes pitched solely 5 video games in 2023 within the minors and 7 video games in 2024 earlier than being referred to as as much as the present. He made his debut on Might 11, 2024, putting out seven batters and touching 100 MPH along with his fastball 17 instances. Fairly good for a rookie making his debut proper? With the Pirates being second to final of their division, Paul Skenes has been a vivid spot for the Pirates this season with promise that he could be a long-term starter for them within the coming years. With that being mentioned, let’s check out how Skenes has carried out to this point since being referred to as as much as the majors.
Stats (From 5/11-6/25): IP: 46.1, Okay%: 33.7%, BB%: 4.4%, Barrel%: 6.3%, ERA: 2.14, WHIP: 0.99, pCRA: 2.95
Skenes has had success since coming into the league and that’s principally as a consequence of his potential to strike batters out. Skenes ranks within the high 5% of the league in Okay% and that’s because of his high-velocity fastball and his slider. He will get probably the most strikeouts with these pitches, with each having 40%+ Okay%. Skenes’ second most used pitch is his splitter (Baseball Savant says split-finger), producing a 34.2 CSW%. He doesn’t use this pitch a lot in two-strike conditions, however this pitch is his least hit pitch, with opponents solely having a .140 batting common in opposition to it and a .172 wOBA. These stats are each effectively under the league common for opposing batters, making this one among Skenes’ greatest pitches. Skenes does have a considerably excessive common exit velocity of 92 MPH, however as a consequence of his above-average CSW%, he can afford to surrender some more durable contact. With time, Skenes ought to count on to decrease his exit velocity as soon as he continues to pitch and learns extra as he’s only a rookie and has solely 8 video games beneath his belt. Let’s dive into the pitches I discussed above and see how they’re performing for Skenes.
Since coming into the league Paul Skenes has wowed folks along with his fastball, averaging 99.3 MPH with it. Skenes makes use of his fastball probably the most out of his five-pitch arsenal, utilizing it 39.6% of the time. He makes use of it 50.9% in two-strike conditions which is effectively above his split-finger which he makes use of solely 19.3% of the time in two-strike conditions. He’s generated nearly all of his strikeouts with this pitch as effectively, with a 40.5 Okay%. Skenes’ fastball doesn’t get hit all that effectively, with opponents solely averaging a .313 wOBA (slightly below the MLB common). His fastball can also be squared up about 3% lower than the MLB common (38%). Skenes kilos the higher and out of doors elements of the zone with this pitch. His vertical strategy angle (VAA) of -4.9 aids in him reaching the highest of the zone. Skenes is ready to find his fastball within the strike zone 65.2% of the time making this his most effective pitch. His fastball is a big a part of his Okay% being so excessive.
As talked about earlier, Skenes’ least hit pitch is his splitter. He doesn’t use this pitch a lot in two-strike conditions, however nonetheless will get 27.4% Okay% when he does use it. Because of its -6.9 VAA, Skenes is ready to find this pitch down within the zone totally on the inside half of the plate. Skenes is ready to generate lots of swings with this pitch posting a 56.8% swing% and getting a whiff on 34.6% of these swings. Probably the most spectacular factor about his splitter is how he can maintain runners off the basepaths with it. As talked about earlier than, opposing batters are solely posting a .172 wOBA in opposition to this pitch that means that opposing hitters have a really arduous time reaching base in opposition to this pitch. Skenes does enable an honest quantity of arduous contact with this pitch, however due to his whiff fee, he can enable for extra arduous contact since this pitch isn’t hit as typically. Seeing as how Skenes could be very efficient at preserving runners off the basepaths, he doesn’t surrender many runs, posting a decent 2.14 ERA.
There’s at all times room for enchancment it doesn’t matter what the case could also be, and for Paul Skenes the necessity for enchancment occurs to be along with his slider. Skenes targets the surface of the zone closely along with his slider when he throws it. He solely throws it 16.3% of the time, however posts a 40.0 Okay% with it. Though he will get lots Okay’s with this pitch it’s hit much more than any of his different pitches. Batters are getting on base extra typically in opposition to this pitch, with opposing batters having a .394 wOBA in opposition to this pitch, which is effectively above the league common. One other challenge with this pitch is he doesn’t generate lots of whiffs with it. He solely will get a whiff 26.4% of the time, with the league common being 33.1%. This exhibits us that Skene’s slider is being hit fairly a bit. This brings me to my subsequent level, which is when his slider is hit, its typically hit arduous. Skenes’ slider is producing a barrel% of 16.7% in comparison with the league common of seven.1%. In the event you’re unfamiliar with this stat click on right here for an in depth rationalization. Batters aren’t simply hitting this pitch arduous, however they’re typically getting additional base hits off this pitch as effectively. Opposing batters are posting a .450 ISO off Skenes’ slider. ISO is a metric that measures a hitters uncooked energy by solely taking into consideration their additional base hits. If Skenes can get this pitch to generate much less arduous contact and extra whiffs it’s going to solely assist him enhance his already spectacular begin to his profession.
Paul Skenes is already off to a terrific begin in his rookie season with a 4-0 report being a vivid spot for a struggling Pirates workforce. As Skenes continues to develop as a pitcher he’ll solely proceed to enhance. He has an elite fastball and an elite potential to generate strikeouts and is so enjoyable to look at. I count on Skenes to solely proceed to enhance because the season continues and proceed to be one of many hottest names within the league.
