Ken Griffey Jr. swinging away, CCed by Liscense 2.0
As detailed in my fellow author Perry Nadreau’s article, Baseball Savant’s new bat monitoring knowledge has added an unimaginable software to the repertoires of analysts, writers, and on a regular basis followers of the sport alike with regards to breaking down the perfect and worst hitters within the league. When you don’t fall into a kind of classes, or should you do however haven’t but delved into the world of bat monitoring knowledge, then I extremely counsel you check out Perry’s piece so that you just don’t get misplaced studying this one. These new metrics have enabled us to validate lengthy debated concepts about how hitters generate energy in a swing. As effectively, it shows why some batters are higher than others at making contact with the baseball, because the metrics quantify how briskly a batter can transfer the bat by means of the zone in addition to how lengthy the barrel of the bat is within the zone. On this article, I’m going to check a few these theories and see if the brand new knowledge at my disposal helps or demerits them.
It has lengthy been claimed that left-handed batters have longer and flatter swings than their right-handed counterparts. Most baseball followers, particularly these of older ages, instantly consider the candy swinging Ken Griffey Jr. when requested to consider a left handed hitter. The Swingman certainly had an extended swing, as a result of large quantity of separation he might create by opening up his left elbow, which dually created loads of room for him to drag his palms by means of the zone and get the barrel to the ball. However, one other well-known lefty hitter in Ichiro Suzuki had an extremely quick and direct swing that turned him into one of many best contact hitters the sport has ever seen, tallying 4,367 hits in skilled baseball between Nippon Skilled Baseball in Japan and Main League Baseball in the USA. Evaluating these two world class hitters instantly makes us query whether or not this previous adage about lefty swing size is true. Let’s see if the brand new knowledge from Baseball Savant can settle the argument. Proper off the bat (pun meant), we see that the typical swing size in MLB for lefties is 7.2 ft from the beginning of the swing with the batter holding the bat behind their head to contact out in entrance of the plate. Nonetheless, we additionally see that the typical swing size of proper handed hitters is 7.4 ft, 0.2 ft longer than the typical left handed swing. What about energy hitters vs. contact hitters for each handedness teams? Effectively, we all know that longer swings typically yield greater bat pace as a consequence of an extended period of time for the barrel to hurry up by means of the swing, which means extra energy output by the hitter. We additionally know that shorter, extra direct swings are higher for making contact with the ball as a result of they permit the hitter to get their barrel on airplane with the pitch faster. So for this evaluation, we’ll assume batters with above common swing size would have a extra energy oriented method, and the alternative for these with under common swing size. In doing this, we discover that the lefty energy hitter group nonetheless has a shorter common swing size than the righty energy hitters, measuring in at 7.5 and seven.7 ft respectively. The identical as soon as once more rings true for contact hitters, with the righties main the lefties 7.2 to six.9 ft. Throughout, proper handed batters have longer swings on common than their left handed counterparts, fully debunking this fable. Nonetheless, grouping the 2 essential swing varieties most prevalent in our recreation in the present day has me curious. Are there some gamers who’re able to producing BOTH forms of swings?
The 2 strike method is a traditional instance of a conflict between conventional baseball technique and new age, analytically pushed technique. Up to now, hitters had been taught to choke up on the bat, shorten their swing, and shield the strike zone by fouling off pitches they couldn’t essentially put good wooden on, however ones shut sufficient to be referred to as strikes. This was seen as one of the best ways to stop hanging out, which was the largest drawback for a hitter in an period of small ball and speak to centered offenses. These days nevertheless, {many professional} hitters are inspired to get their A-swing off regardless of the rely. That is believed to create extra worth in the long term given the added likelihood of slugging an additional base hit on the expense of a equally greater likelihood of hanging out. Nonetheless, even in in the present day’s recreation, not each hitter is a Joey Gallo or a Giancarlo Stanton, which begs the query; which hitters gradual and shorten their swings based mostly on the rely, or vice versa? To reply this query, we’ll group potential counts the hitter can face into 3 buckets. Early counts are counts the place neither the hitter nor the pitcher has a transparent benefit but. These counts are 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, and 1-1, and usually see an excellent mixture of aggressive and passive approaches from hitters. Behind counts are counts the place the pitcher is behind within the rely, wherein hitters are usually extra aggressive because the pitcher is extra prone to throw strikes. These embrace 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, and 3-1. Lastly, End counts are counts the place the pitcher can end the hitter off with one pitch. Briefly, any two-strike rely apart from 3-2, which we gained’t use on this evaluation because it has a singular standing as being each a Behind and a End Depend. For context, I am going to begin by stating that the typical bat pace and swing size for all hitters in Early counts are 71.8 MPH and seven.4 ft. For Behind counts, the averages are 72.7 MPH and seven.4 ft. End counts see predictable adjustments of their averages which drop to 70.2 MPH and seven.3 ft. Instantly we see that the two-strike method may be very a lot current in in the present day’s recreation, as hitters drop their bat pace a median of 1.6 MPH going from Early to End counts, and a pair of.5 MPH from Behind to End counts. Surprisingly nevertheless, batters didn’t appear to shorten their swings a lot as they moved into End counts, though there have been some outliers.Jose Caballero of the Tampa Bay Rays had the most important change in bat pace from Early and Behind counts to End counts. Caballero slowed his bat down a whopping 4 MPH going from Early to End counts, and an excellent larger 6.9 MPH going from Behind to End counts, as proven within the graph under.
This should imply Caballero is elite at making contact in 2 strike counts and avoiding hanging out proper? Sadly no, by no means really, as Caballero falls into the underside fifteenth percentile in Whiff%, Ok%, and Contact%.
On this attention-grabbing graphic offered by Baseball Savant, we will actually see the number of swings that Caballero is able to based mostly on the peaks within the variety of swings for every bat pace worth. This graphic is an unimaginable technique to visualize the concept that many hitters don’t have only one swing, however a number of swings, virtually like a software field, for various counts and conditions within the recreation.Relating to adjustments in swing size, a extra acquainted identify tops the leaderboards. Willi Castro has a reasonably common size swing in Early counts, however as he will get deeper into at bats, he “Willi” focuses on placing the ball in play.
As pictured within the graph above, Castro shortens his swing by an enormous 0.4 ft as he goes from Early to End counts, and 0.2 ft as he goes from Early to Behind counts. Castro nonetheless struggles to keep away from Ok-ing up although, as he falls into the underside thirty fourth percentile in Ok%.
Primarily based on the outcomes we’ve seen from each Willi Castro and Jose Caballero, it’s powerful to say that slowing down the swing and shortening the bat path actually makes a lot of a distinction in stopping strike outs. Nonetheless, these are the two most excessive batters with regards to this technique, and a deeper dive could be essential to attract a extra sure conclusion.
Simply as in any good scientific experiment, we’ve ended our evaluation with extra questions than we began with. Why do righties have longer swings than lefties and why was the alternative believed for thus lengthy? Does a two-strike method actually assist in decreasing strike outs? And in that case, what’s the excellent mixture of decreased bat pace and swing size to maximise contact? The excellent news is that with the brand new bat monitoring knowledge accessible to us, all of those questions are answerable, and I can’t wait to dive deeper and study extra in regards to the intricacies of this nice recreation.
