Travis Bazzana enjoying for the Cleveland minor league affiliate, the Lake County Captains; CC by License 2.0
One other draft cycle has come and gone, and lots of the picks from this previous summer season’s draft class have begun their skilled profession. Previous to the draft, our workforce labored on a listing of the highest 15 hitters that may be accessible, which may be discovered right here. Immediately, we’ll be checking in on a few of the collegiate bats that we highlighted in that article which have been competing within the minor leagues. Sadly, we don’t have an excessive amount of to go off of by way of batted ball information for almost all of those guys, however they’ve performed sufficient video games to make a few of these tendencies statistically important.
Travis Bazzana, Guardians, A+
The primary general decide has had a reasonably profitable transition into professional ball, although he has struggled a bit. In A+, he’s at the moment hitting .238 with a .765 OPS. He’s posting a .340 wOBA, which is a tick above common for the extent. He’s nonetheless posting the identical spectacular contact numbers that he posted all through his time at Oregon State, however he’s being a bit extra passive on the plate, solely swinging the bat 38.4% of the time on pitches basically and beneath 60% on pitches throughout the strike zone. The Guardians are greater than possible making a aware choice to work with Bazzana and faucet into his plus pitch recognition and swing choices. With the success that the large league membership is having, they’re in no rush to fast-track him to the majors, and now is a good time to take a step again and work on the method throughout his first season of professional ball. Anticipate the swing choices to change into extra aggressive originally of subsequent yr, which ought to enable his uncooked energy to face out a bit extra. The bat to ball expertise have remained constant through the change to professional ball, highlighted by his 81.4 zCon% and absurd 71.4% oCon%. There’s clearly nonetheless some growth and aggressiveness that should ramp up for him, however Bazzana has confirmed himself succesful and deserving of the primary general decide.
Charlie Condon, Rockies, A+
Charlie Condon had a monstrous yr on the College of Georgia in 2024, however his efficiency thus far in professional ball has left a lot to be desired. On the 100 at-bat mark in A+, Condon is hitting .180 with one dwelling run and a measly .518 OPS. A lot of this has to do with some severe swing and miss points that elevate some fairly vivid yellow (for now) flags about his means to constantly deal with superior pitching. He’s whiffing at over a 3rd of the pitches that he sees, his oCon% is 25.9, and he’s posting a 34:4 Okay/BB ratio. His zCon% can be a bit alarming at 73.5%. To place this into comparability, that quantity was 89.6% throughout his collegiate season. A few of these underlying points could possibly be attributed to fatigue. He had a protracted collegiate season and never a lot of a break previous to starting his skilled profession. However, within the video that I’ve seen, he appears pretty uncomfortable within the field and has been unable to constantly get the ball within the air, a difficulty that confirmed up minorly at UGA that I raised some slight considerations about within the article talked about above. Hopefully for Condon and the Rockies, the struggles will enhance after his first skilled offseason of growth and a little bit of relaxation. The uncooked energy continues to be, clearly, extremely engaging, however sadly, not very efficient if he isn’t going to place the ball in play within the air.
JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals, A
Thankfully, we do have Statcast information on Wetherholt for his time in A ball thus far. By 105 at bats, Wetherholt is slashing .295/.405/.400 with 2 dwelling runs and a .361 wOBA. Actually all the underlying metrics on him look good as effectively. He’s not chasing a ton, he’s exhibiting off the spectacular bat-to-ball skills constantly, and he’s proven above-average uncooked energy, evident by the 105.3 ninetieth% EV and 109.2 max EV. He’s strolling at a better charge than he’s putting out, and he’s being selective along with his swing choices. This locations him in benefit counts and permits him to make use of each his pure, superior hit instrument and his above-average energy to punish opposing pitchers. Pitchers have struggled to seek out a great way to assault him on the plate, as he has posted actually stable numbers towards all kinds of pitches. In opposition to breaking balls, he’s posting an absurd .674 xwOBACON (basically measures how a lot injury he’s anticipated to provide when he does make contact), although his whiff charges on these pitches is hovering proper round 30%. He produces comparable numbers towards fastballs, and doesn’t swing and miss at them a ton, posting a 17.1% whiff charge. Offspeed pitches, equivalent to changeups, could be the method to assault him as he doesn’t produce as a lot injury, however even towards these he’s solely swinging and lacking 13.3% of the time. Wetherholt is a nightmare matchup for pitchers in A-ball at the moment, and he’s exhibiting why he was touted as the perfect prospect within the class earlier than his hamstring damage.
Jac Caglianone, Royals, A+
Caglianone has been pretty spectacular at the beginning of his skilled profession. By 115 at-bats, he’s slashing .241/.302/.388 with 2 dwelling runs and a .298 wOBA. The manufacturing and common energy numbers could appear a bit down, however that is pure as one enters skilled baseball. The facility continues to be very a lot there, and can start to indicate up as he turns into acclimated to skilled pitching. He’s exhibiting comparable aggressiveness to what he confirmed at Florida this previous yr, however the whiff charges don’t look that dangerous as they’re sitting at 26.4% at the moment. He’s making contact within the zone constantly, proven by the 82.8% zCon charge, however the chase is at the moment sitting at 45.6%, which is definitely elevated from the 38% clip that he posted throughout his season at Florida. That is, considerably, mitigated by his means to cowl exterior of the zone along with his giant body and lengthy bat path. He’s making contact on pitches out of the zone 61.3% of the time, which is a stable quantity however nonetheless not sufficient to utterly overcome the chase points. I might like to see him swing much less as he winds up the season. This could enable him to, hopefully, develop a greater really feel for the strike zone and assist tame his method a bit.
Nick Kurtz, Athletics, AA
Kurtz has solely performed in 12 skilled baseball video games, however after per week of A ball video games the place he hit .400 with 4 dwelling runs, he’s been promoted to AA. Going into the draft, I felt as if Kurtz’s mature method, above-average bat-to-ball expertise, and plus energy would translate rapidly to professional ball, and he has had about as seamless of a transition as one can have. There isn’t sufficient information to essentially establish any significant tendencies but, however his sub 20% whiff charge thus far is definitely promising. He hasn’t slugged a lot in his 5 video games on the AA degree, however once more, it’s far too early to be involved about that reality.
James Tibbs III, Giants, A+
By 108 at-bats, Tibbs is slashing .241/.293/.343 with 2 dwelling runs and 5 doubles. Whereas it’s nonetheless early, Tibbs has run into some actual points on the plate. He at the moment has a 36:8 Okay/BB ratio, is posting a whiff charge just below 33%, and has a measly 71.2 zCon%. On the intense facet, he’s not increasing the zone a lot, however the incapability to stroll coupled with the swing and miss points has me pretty involved for the time being. He’s additionally not impacting the baseball and producing injury actually in any respect as highlighted by his .208 wOBA, which is much under common. This creates a nasty three-headed beast of underlying yellow/crimson flags thus far in professional ball which are troubling, nonetheless, I’m not all the way in which out on him, as we’ve seen him be a constant performer in any respect ranges. The adjustment to professional ball is a large adjustment, and a full offseason ought to enable him and the Giants to essentially work on a few of these points and hopefully get again to the consistency that he confirmed in his collegiate profession.
Smith has been, maybe, the perfect and most constant performer from this draft class thus far. By 96 at-bats, he’s slashing .323/.412/.635 with 7 dwelling runs. The swings have seemed extraordinarily snug, assured, and explosive. He’s producing at a excessive degree, proven by his .392 wOBA, which is comfortably above-average. Sadly, there’s no batted ball information accessible on him but, however the underlying metrics look extremely promising as effectively. He’s solely swinging and lacking simply over 20% of the time and is posting a 87.1 zCon%, each good indicators and above-average. Nevertheless, he does nonetheless have a little bit of a difficulty with increasing the zone, swinging exterior of the zone at a 33.6% charge. This hasn’t appeared to sluggish him down but, however it has restricted his stroll numbers and can solely proceed to be uncovered increasingly more as he progresses up in professional ball.
Christian Moore, Angels, AA
As is typical of the Los Angeles Angels, Moore was the primary participant taken within the 2024 draft to achieve AA, although it wasn’t with out advantage. In 2 video games in A ball, Moore collected 6 hits, together with 2 doubles and a house run. His success has continued in AA for essentially the most half, the place he’s slashing .302/.355/.512 with 5 dwelling runs in 86 at-bats. There’s a non-zero likelihood that he will get some at-bats with the large league membership this season, however that’s only a product of the group and their philosophies. Underneath the hood, I do have some considerations about Moore and his swing and miss points. He’s at the moment posting a 37.6 whiff% in AA to go together with a 30% strikeout charge and a 64.4 zCon%. He’s additionally increasing the zone usually, posting a 39.4 chase%. Despite the fact that he’s producing, these metrics do concern me significantly. The pitching is barely going to proceed to enhance as he strikes up the ranks, and these points will must be resolved or a minimum of mitigated earlier than he’s able to contribute at a high-level within the massive leagues.
