Cody Bellinger has one of many extra important opt-out selections of the offseason. The Cubs heart fielder/first baseman must determine whether or not to bypass the remaining two years and $50MM on the three-year, $80MM contract he signed late final winter. If he foregoes this yr’s opt-out, he’d have one other out clause through the 2025-26 offseason (when there’ll be $20MM left on the deal).
Final weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA Immediately wrote that Bellinger was “totally anticipated” to bypass this winter’s opt-out. That doesn’t appear to be set in stone, nonetheless. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported this night that Bellinger has but to determine whether or not he’ll check the market.
Bellinger is wrapping up a strong if barely disappointing yr. He’s hitting .268/.328/.432 with 18 house runs over 545 plate appearances. He has primarily maintained the career-best pure contact means that he confirmed in 2023. Bellinger has fanned in 15.8% of his journeys this yr, marginally larger than the 15.6% strikeout fee he managed throughout his first season on the North Facet.
The downturn has been in his energy output. Bellinger had eight extra house runs and 13 extra extra-base hits a yr in the past. He has one other week so as to add to this season’s totals however isn’t going to make up that a lot floor. His slugging proportion is down greater than .090 factors from final yr’s glorious .525 mark. The sustainability of final yr’s energy manufacturing was all the time the most important query. Bellinger bought to his spectacular 2023 output regardless of a below-average 31.4% laborious contact fee and 87.9 MPH common exit velocity. This yr’s batted ball metrics are equally middling and the outcomes have certainly regressed.
There’s however nonetheless so much to love within the profile. Bellinger has confirmed to be an above-average contact hitter. He’s one other season faraway from the dismal 2021-22 run that led the Dodgers to non-tender him earlier than his last arbitration yr. It’s secure to say that his 47-homer MVP type isn’t coming again, however Bellinger is a productive hitter. He’s nonetheless able to enjoying heart discipline, though the Cubs have used him more and more in proper discipline and at first base.
Bellinger has graded as a mean defender in somewhat greater than 400 heart discipline innings. He has posted related marks in additional than 350 innings in proper. The Cubs’ finest outfield has defensive wunderkind Pete Crow-Armstrong in heart. One other staff may give Bellinger extra constant reps up the center for no less than a season or two.
The 2-time All-Star stays one of many youthful doable free brokers within the class. Bellinger turned 29 in July. He’s greater than a yr youthful than Harrison Bader, who’d most likely be the highest heart fielder if Bellinger stays in Chicago. He’s practically a yr youthful than Anthony Santander and about the identical age as Tyler O’Neill. Whereas there’s a good quantity of nook outfield expertise — headlined, after all, by Juan Soto — the middle discipline class will not be robust. Bellinger declined a qualifying supply final winter and is not eligible to obtain one, so there’d be no draft choose forfeiture this time round.
That’d work in Bellinger’s favor if he opted out. Between his age and first rate all-around manufacturing, he’d have a good argument for a four- and even five-year deal. If he merely needed to maximise the assure, he shouldn’t have a difficulty beating the $50MM remaining on his present contract. That’d require taking a paycut subsequent season although. Bellinger wouldn’t match subsequent yr’s $27.5MM wage on an annual foundation over 4 or 5 years.
If Bellinger and his camp on the Boras Company count on his energy to rebound, bypassing the opt-out could be the probably choice. He’d have one other probability to retest the market upfront of his age-30 marketing campaign in 12 months. Staying in Chicago could require enjoying proper discipline for a full season in deference to Crow-Armstrong, although, probably elevating questions amongst different groups about his long-term viability in heart discipline.
From the Cubs’ perspective, an opt-out would most likely be the higher final result. That’d allow them to play Seiya Suzuki extra often in proper discipline as a substitute of limiting him to designated hitter — the place he’d must play with Bellinger and Ian Happ flanking Crow-Armstrong. Michael Busch’s robust yr lessens the necessity to have Bellinger round as a fallback at first base. The Cubs have questions at catcher, within the bullpen and behind the rotation.
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