Let’s Look at Swing Path Variety within the 2024 Playoffs

It’s essentially the most fantastic time of the 12 months: October baseball. As all the time within the playoffs, I’ve been eager to watch lineup building and offensive personnel, significantly from a bat path perspective. Over the previous few years particularly, the matchup sport has develop into increasingly essential as managers navigate the platoon benefit that comes from switching pitchers out and in of the sport.

In 2023 and 2022, I explored how Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) can function a proxy for analyzing swing variety in a workforce’s lineup. At first it began as a approach of investigating why the Astros had been so constant within the playoffs, then it grew to become a approach for me to grasp which lineups have essentially the most versatility in bat path and handedness. In idea, the extra versatility, the tougher it’s for a pitcher-catcher mixture to sport plan. If a lefty with a flat bat path hits forward of a righty with a steep bat path — as is the case with Juan Soto and Aaron Choose — a pitcher is pressured to execute two completely different approaches. If that variance carries by way of a whole lineup, good luck! Spoiler alert, I’m mainly describing the Dodgers, however extra on that later.

As I’ve stated in numerous blogs of mine, VBA will not be a catch-all metric for describing bat path. Assault Angle (AA) and Vertical Entry Angle (VEA), amongst different metrics, are essential for understanding the total story of every participant’s path. However on this piece, I’m going to stay with simply VBA as a result of that’s what I’ve used for this piece in earlier years. Listed below are just a few key factors which might be essential to rehash earlier than exhibiting the outcomes.

For left-handed hitters, I made their common VBA detrimental to account for the truth that they swing from the opposite facet of the plate. (VBA knowledge is supplied by SwingGraphs.) For switch-hitters, I multiplied their common VBA by -0.72 as a result of the league-wide charge of switch-hitter plate appearances that come in opposition to righty pitchers — when they’re batting lefty — is 72%. Moreover, regardless that I used regular-season VBA knowledge, I included solely hitters who’ve recorded no less than one playoff plate look this 12 months within the pattern. By not together with guys who didn’t bat through the postseason, the dataset is extra consultant of every playoff workforce’s VBA variance based mostly on how its offense is at the moment constructed. With the remaining group of gamers, I took the variance of the VBAs on the given workforce and adjusted it to be a proportion above or under common. The common is about at 100, identical to wRC+. With out additional ado, right here is the replace on VBAVar+ for 2024:

As I alluded to earlier, the Dodgers come out on high this 12 months. Their addition of Shohei Ohtani is an enormous assist. Shocker! He comes earlier than Mookie Betts, who’s then adopted by Freddie Freeman. From a VBA perspective, these three hitters provide instant variance atop the lineup. Ohtani’s VBA sits round 34 levels on common (though we all know he can alter his swing a ton). Betts affords a really comparable VBA at simply round 33.7 levels, however his comes from the opposite facet of the plate, and he’s a lot shorter than Ohtani. After that, Freeman has one of many steepest swings in baseball at simply over 40 levels on common. The completely different angles are one option to illuminate how completely different they’re as hitters. They drive pitchers to execute a number of pitches in numerous areas as a result of every of them has completely different strengths or weaknesses because of the shapes of their swings.

Being with no wholesome Freeman takes a flexible layer out of the lineup. The primary baseman is nursing a sprained ankle and bone bruise, an harm that will usually warrant a restoration time of 4 to 6 weeks. He didn’t play within the Dodgers’ 8-0 win over the Padres in Recreation 4 on Wednesday, however he’s within the lineup for Friday night time’s Recreation 5. Both approach, he’s not at full energy. Throughout his Recreation 4 absence, Max Muncy moved over to his outdated house at first base, whereas Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernández break up the third base duties. Because the Dodgers confirmed of their Recreation 4 rout, they’ve loads of different boppers following the three stars of their lineup. It begins with Teoscar Hernández’s impartial VBA of 33-34 levels. He’s adopted by Muncy’s barely flatter swing (31 levels). Then comes the righty Will Smith along with his steeper angle of about 36 levels. The underside third is highlighted by Gavin Lux and Tommy Edman, who present pitchers one other completely different look with their flatter swings (each lower than 29 levels on common). I do know, I mainly listed the whole lineup, however that’s precisely the purpose: The Dodgers have a ton of gifted hitters with completely different swing profiles, making it very troublesome for pitchers to give you a concrete gameplan to get them out. Final season, the Dodgers had been second on this metric. The additions of Ohtani, Teoscar Hernández, and Edman, in addition to the return of Lux from harm, have helped push the Dodgers to the highest of the record.

The Yankees even have loads of star energy of their lineup. They’ve struggled offensively to this point by way of their 4 playoff video games and are simply barely above common when it comes to lineup swing variance. Choose is their solely hitter on this pattern who has a median VBA above 33 levels. Nonetheless, as I discussed earlier, the highest of their lineup is all of the extra harmful as a result of their two finest hitters, Choose and Soto, have utterly completely different VBAs. Choose’s is 41 levels, whereas Soto’s is 26, they usually additionally come from completely different sides of the plate.

The Padres and Royals seem third and fourth on this leaderboard, respectively. San Diego’s placement is basically as a consequence of its means to rotate left- and right-handed hitters. On Wednesday, the Padres’ lineup went like this: L, R, L, R, L, R, L, R, L. There’s one spot that stands out particularly: Batting Manny Machado fourth and Jackson Merrill fifth. Machado’s flat swing is geared towards crushing heaters, whereas Merrill’s steeper swing (and flexibility) permits him to hit sliders effectively. If pitchers need to spam sliders to Machado, they’re pressured to regulate rapidly and take a distinct strategy with Merrill. Sure, that’s potential. But when it makes issues even simply barely tougher for pitchers, it’s price it.

Kansas Metropolis is sort of completely different from the opposite groups mentioned to date as a result of its offense is high heavy. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are the 2 key threats. Should you’re not going to overwhelm pitchers offensively with a bunch of star energy, no less than give them various appears, proper? That’s what this lineup does. The Royals have a handful of lefty hitters with completely different VBAs, starting from Kyle Isbel (very flat) to Adam Frazier (very steep). The Tigers, the opposite AL Central workforce to safe a Wild Card berth, are an identical story.

The Tigers have finished simply sufficient offensively through the playoffs to date. They haven’t actually had an enormous breakout sport, however their versatility has allowed A.J. Hinch to make pinch-hitting choices that put his workforce in a greater place to play in opposition to the strengths of Detroit’s opponents. A superb instance of this got here in Recreation 2 of the Wild Card Sequence in opposition to the Houston Astros, when Andy Ibáñez pinch-hit for Zach McKinstry in opposition to left-hander Josh Hader within the eighth inning. From a handedness perspective, the transfer is straight ahead; McKinstry bats left-handed whereas Ibáñez is a righty. However what makes this an particularly shrewd transfer is the truth that, from a bat path perspective, Ibáñez may be a really perfect matchup for the Tigers in opposition to Hader. Hader has a flat strategy angle on his fastball, which he’s attempting to maintain above the bats of hitters, and Ibáñez has a flat swing — on common, his VBA hovered between 26 and 27 levels this season — which helps him to keep away from swinging beneath increased pitches. That’s precisely what occurred. Hader fired a sinker up within the zone, and Ibáñez hammered it for a go-ahead double.

And generally, you will have comparable personnel who’re all taking part in so effectively that having variance doesn’t matter all that a lot! That’s precisely what’s occurring in Queens. Nearly the whole Mets lineup is inside 5 levels of VBA. The one exception is J.D. Martinez, who has a steeper path within the excessive 30s. I don’t suppose the Mets’ place all the way in which down on this leaderboard is a foul factor; good hitters are good hitters no matter their swing paths. Placing collectively a lineup with a excessive VBA variance is only one option to construct a profitable workforce, however it’s removed from the one approach.

That is the third 12 months I’ve finished this train and it’s one in all my private favorites. The extra context that may be added to a workforce’s lineup, the higher you’ll be able to perceive matchups and managerial choices. Within the small pattern of the playoffs, groups must flex no matter aggressive benefit is out there. When you will have the personnel to make life tougher on your opponents, you higher train it.