After being traded for the second time in as a few years again in Could when he was acquired by the Padres in a deal that despatched a four-player bundle again to Miami, Luis Arraez advised reporters (together with MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) that he’s wanting ahead to the soundness of figuring out the place he’s going to play subsequent yr. Not solely that, Arraez even expressed curiosity in a longer-term deal to maintain him in San Diego past the top of the 2025 season, when he’s scheduled to achieve free company for the primary time.
“It means a whole lot of good issues,” Arraez stated, as relayed by Cassavell. “In the event that they wish to signal me, I wish to keep right here. That is enterprise. I perceive the enterprise. However I hope I keep right here for a very long time.”
Arraez is in for a wholesome payday this winter, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz initiatives a $14.6MM wage for the infielder in his remaining journey by way of arbitration. It’s a hefty value to pay for Arraez distinctive however considerably restricted ability set. Arraez has by no means supplied a lot defensive worth even when he primarily performed second base with the Twins and Marlins. That modified upon Arraez’s arrival in San Diego, because the Padres used him on the keystone in simply 9 video games whereas in any other case splitting his time between first base (the place he profiles as a under common defender) and DH.
In the meantime, Arraez’s elite contact is held again by lackluster plate self-discipline and an absence of energy. Whereas Arraez simply received his third consecutive batting title with a wonderful .314 common, he was simply 9% higher than the league common hitter by wRC+ because of a paltry 3.6% stroll price and a minuscule .078 ISO that leaves him with the third-lowest energy manufacturing amongst all certified hitters this yr. An harm may assist clarify Arraez’s downturn in manufacturing after back-to-back 130 wRC+ seasons in 2022 and ’23, nevertheless: the infielder advised reporters (together with Cassavell) that he’s been enjoying by way of a thumb harm this yr and is ready to bear an MRI to additional discover the scenario now that the Padres’ season has come to an in depth.
If Arraez could be open to a long-term deal at a decrease common annual worth than the $14.6MM determine he’s at the moment projected to earn by way of arbitration this winter, it’s not exhausting to think about the Padres having incentive to place a deal collectively. In spite of everything, RosterResource initiatives the membership for a luxurious tax payroll simply over $243MM in 2025, round $2MM above the bottom tax threshold of $241MM. In the meantime, the membership’s precise payroll is projected for simply over $207MM, a rise of almost $50MM over 2024’s $169MM determine. Whereas specifics of the membership’s payroll plans for 2025 will not be but clear, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres are “dedicated” to a payroll nearer to their 2024 determine than 2023, once they ran an estimated payroll of $257 per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
With wants within the beginning rotation and outfield that should be addressed this winter, San Diego brass might wind up needing to get inventive in an effort to afford the additions obligatory this winter. Extending Arraez could possibly be one such inventive path to a decrease payroll, and it’s one the Padres have used below A.J. Preller up to now. Lefty Wandy Peralta and right-hander Yu Darvish are two of probably the most notable current examples of gamers who had been signed or prolonged on contracts designed to mitigate their luxurious tax impression, and it’s even potential an Arraez extension could possibly be considerably back-loaded in an effort to liberate extra {dollars} for the 2024 staff.
After all, such an association would require the Padres to have Arraez of their plans past the 2025 season. It’s not but clear if Arraez’s need to stay in San Diego past the lifetime of his membership management is reciprocated by membership brass, although The Athletic’s Dennis Lin did spotlight Arraez lately as an “apparent” extension candidate for the membership and emphasize San Diego’s respect for the 27-year-old’s distinctive ability set. There would certainly be different obstacles to workaround in an effort to make a long-term deal into actuality even when the curiosity is mutual, in fact, not least of which might be Arraez’s standing as one of many league’s most troublesome to worth gamers.
