Hyperlink to knowledge:
Vault
Uneven Bars
Stability Beam
Flooring Train
Over the previous few years I’ve seen gymnastics followers always reward the gymnasts who competed in Flooring Finals on the 2012 Olympics. The 2012 lineup for ground finals was legendary. It featured the Olympic Flooring Champions of 2004 (Catalina Ponor), 2008 (Sandra Izbasa) and 2012 (Aly Raisman). It had the World Champions on Flooring of 2010 (Lauren Mitchell) and 2011 (Ksenia Afanasyeva). If that wasn’t sufficient expertise, the 2012 Flooring Finals additionally featured two further gymnasts who would win Olympic medals on this occasion, Aliya Mustafina (2012) and Vanessa Ferrari (2021).
For years gymnastics followers have fawned over this lineup, going so far as to label it essentially the most proficient, star-studded and full discipline of gymnasts to ever compete in an Equipment Finals on that exact occasion. My objective is to see how the 2012 Flooring Finals compares to different Equipment Finals within the historical past of ladies’s creative gymnastics (WAG). Are there every other comparable Equipment Finals that had an equally proficient discipline? Does the popularity of 2012 Flooring Finals stay as much as its standing as the best Equipment Finals ever when the information is totally analyzed?
This particular article is just the introduction to the sequence and an evidence of the methodology I’ll use to reply this query. Not like different knowledge evaluation initiatives, this specific query is extremely subjective and equally advanced to reply. So, I needed to create a “residence web page” for the sequence the place I clarify the methodology. However first, let’s speak in regards to the issues.
Drawback #1: Outliers
The foremost impediment to this query is how one can get round outliers. One apparent outlier is Simone Biles who has six gold medals in six appearances on ground. An much more excessive instance is Svetlana Khorkina who has seven gold medals and 11 appearances on the uneven bars. However the greatest and most excessive instance of an outlier, from a gymnast whose profession is such an anomaly that she has without end destroyed most vault data is Oksana Chusovitina.
At 17 appearances in Vault Finals and ten profession medals on this occasion, Chusovitina would singlehandedly skew all 17 of these lineups in direction of the highest of the record.
With these outliers in thoughts, any “profession totals” are unusable. This contains whole appearances, whole medals, whole gold medals, and placement within the factors system are out of the query. That leaves just one possibility, to take “finest profession consequence” and use that as a benchmark as a substitute. For instance, a gymnast who received two bronze medals and a silver medal can be counted within the knowledge as a silver medalist.
Drawback #2: Subjectivity
As beforehand talked about, it is a extremely subjective query. Gymnastics followers would possibly want measuring success based mostly on which lineup had essentially the most gold medalists. However what about lineups that had essentially the most repeat medalists? Is a gymnast who received a single gold medal and retired superior in rank to a gymnast who received a silver medal at two totally different Olympics? Is a “top-heavy” 8-person lineup that had three gold medalist and no different medalists superior to a “depth” lineup that had seven silver medalists however just one gold medalist?
As a way to make issues fairer, I can be calculating the numbers twice for every equipment. The primary calculation will use the standard factors system and is designed to reward lineups that have been prime heavy. The second calculation will take the factors system and add a bonus to reward lineups that had extra depth.
Sadly, in the interim I cannot be counting a number of medals per gymnast. Every gymnast will solely be counted based mostly on her single finest consequence. As a consequence, this implies a gymnast akin to Dina Kochetkova who has two appearances in Flooring Finals, a gold medal and a fifth place end can be equal in rank to Simone Biles, a 6x gold medalist on this exact same occasion. That’s the value of making an attempt to provide knowledge on a subject that’s rift with outliers and subjectivity.
Whereas the Kochetkova v. Biles instance could seem unfair, doing it this fashion additionally protects the information from one other main outlier, uneven bars on the 2015 World Championships which infamously featured a 4-way tie for gold. Not solely did 4 gymnasts share a gold medal, however all 4 gymnasts received a number of medals on the uneven bars. Two of them are repeat gold medalists (Viktoria Komova & Fan Yilin). One other is a gold and silver medalist (Madison Kocian). Whereas the final is a gold and bronze medalist (Daria Spiridonova).
One of many main advantages of limiting the information to at least one medal per gymnast is minimizing the influence of ties that may in any other case dominate the information.
Sooner or later I want to develop this sequence in a means that goes past one medal per gymnast, however as a result of that is such an formidable undertaking to undertake, the pure plan of action was to start out easy and slowly work my means as much as a extra advanced means of rating lineups at a later date.
Methodology #1 (Factors-Conventional)
The primary methodology which is to be labeled the “Factors-Conventional” rating and is meant to reward lineups which are essentially the most “prime heavy” will think about solely medals received on the Olympics and World Championships.
Solely medals received on the precise equipment in query will rely in direction of the information, a gymnast profitable in vault finals won’t assist her rating if she additionally qualifies to uneven bar finals. From right here the usual 3-points for gold, 2-points for silver, and 1-point for bronze factors system can be utilized. Within the occasion of a tie each gymnasts will obtain the total level whole. As beforehand talked about, gymnasts are capped at one medal every and no factors are generated for gymnasts who end 4th or decrease within the standings. Qualifying or competing in an equipment finals doesn’t enhance a gymnast’s rating. She should at minimal win a medal.
Methodology #2 (Factors-Bonus)
The second methodology which is to be labeled the “Factors-Bonus” rating is meant to reward lineups that followers would think about to have “depth.” It’s an identical to Methodology #1 with the next steps added.
All lineups can be counted based mostly on the variety of gymnasts current who by no means received a medal on this particular equipment on the World Championships or Olympics. Lineups with two or much less gymnasts will obtain a bonus level of +1 added to their whole from the earlier methodology. Lineups with one gymnast or much less will obtain +2 bonus factors. Lineups the place all gymnasts completed their careers with a medal will obtain +3 bonus factors.
There are a handful examples akin to beam finals on the 2021 World Championships the place lineups had greater than eight rivals. To forestall these examples from being put at an unfair drawback within the Factors-Bonus mannequin, solely their eight strongest rivals from Methodology #1 can be counted when figuring out if they’re eligible for bonus factors.
Notice: In each rankings the bottom potential rating is six factors.
Lastly, I can be releasing the information in REVERSE Olympic order (ground, beam, bars, and vault) as a result of it was 2012 ground that impressed this text and that knowledge needs to be offered first.
Hyperlink to knowledge:
Vault
Uneven Bars
Stability Beam
Flooring Train
