The Rangers spent lavishly in free company following the opening of their new stadium, inking Corey Seager (10 years, $325MM), Marcus Semien (seven years, $175MM), Jacob deGrom (5 years, $185MM) to mega contracts. Additionally they took on notable wage in trades (Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery) and doled out extra modest however nonetheless notable ensures for Jon Grey (4 years, $56MM), Nathan Eovaldi (two years, $34MM) and Andrew Heaney (two years, $28MM), amongst others. Usually talking, they have been rewarded. Texas received the 2023 World Collection — the primary in franchise historical past.
The sheer magnitude of these expenditures added up, nevertheless, ensuing within the Rangers paying the luxurious tax each in 2023 and 2024. Texas has spent aggressively at occasions up to now, however to not this extent. As they face the potential of a 3rd straight season as a luxurious tax payor, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning Information writes that one among proprietor Ray Davis’ high priorities this winter — even perhaps his No. 1 precedence — is to duck beneath the $241MM luxurious threshold with the intention to reset the crew’s penalty degree.
For these unfamiliar or just in want of a refresher, the luxurious tax is calculated primarily based on the mixed common annual salaries of the gamers on a crew’s roster (plus participant advantages and a compulsory cost into the league’s pre-arbitration bonus pool). The tax threshold climbs each season — at predetermined ranges stipulated within the collective bargaining settlement — and carries escalating penalties for groups that cross the tax barrier in consecutive seasons.
First-time offenders pay a 20% tax on the primary $20MM by which they exceed the edge. They’re then taxed at a 32% fee for the following $20MM. In the event that they cross into the third tier of penalty, that leads to a 62.5% tax on the following $20MM and sees the crew’s high choose within the following 12 months’s draft dropped by 10 spots. Exceeding the tax threshold by greater than $60MM leads to being taxed at 80% or any {dollars} spent thereafter.
That’s only for first-time offenders, nevertheless. Every of these penalty ranges will increase by no less than 10% for a crew that crosses the tax line in a second season. For a membership crossing the tax threshold in a 3rd straight 12 months, the penalties grow to be extra burdensome: 50% for the primary $20MM, 62% for the following $20MM, 95% for the following $20MM (plus the identical draft choose penalty) and 110% for any {dollars} thereafter. That’s the set of potential penalties the Rangers can be dealing with in the event that they cross the tax line once more in 2025.
So far, the Rangers’ penalties they’ve paid have been mild, comparatively talking. They paid simply $1.8MM for his or her first 12 months of penalty in 2023. This 12 months’s whole has not but been decided, however RosterResource estimates they have been a bit greater than $13MM north of 2024’s first-tier threshold of $237MM. At a 30% tax hit as a second-time payor, they’d be roughly $4MM in penalties primarily based on that quantity.
In concept, the 50% tax isn’t all that daunting, as long as the membership solely modestly exceeds the edge as soon as once more. However the Rangers have fairly a bit of labor to do that winter, with as many as 10 gamers reaching free company — pending possibility selections on Nathan Eovaldi ($20MM participant possibility), David Robertson ($7MM mutual possibility) and Andrew Chafin ($6.5MM membership possibility). Eovaldi is all however sure to say no his possibility, as he can command one thing near (even perhaps above) that very same wage on a multi-year deal. Robertson will flip down his finish of that mutual possibility after a powerful season. Chafin’s is a borderline name, but when Texas desires to be aware about its spending ranges, that can most likely be purchased out for $500K.
At current, RosterResource initiatives almost $189MM of luxurious commitments already in place for the 2025 season — $52MM shy of subsequent 12 months’s $241MM threshold. That ostensibly leaves a good bit of wiggle room — no less than till contemplating the truth that the Rangers are shedding three starters (Eovaldi, Scherzer, Heaney), their three high relievers (Robertson, Kirby Yates, Jose Leclerc) and a number of other position gamers. They’ll not solely have to remake a good portion of the pitching employees but additionally search for methods to enhance an offense that was among the many recreation’s greatest in ’23 earlier than rising stagnant in ’24.
Younger has already known as re-signing Eovaldi and/or Heaney “a precedence” this offseason. Eovaldi, specifically, would eat up a good portion of the funds accessible to the membership this offseason. In a separate mailbag column, Grant suggests that if one other crew have been excited about taking up the remaining 12 months and $13MM of Jon Grey’s contract, the Rangers would pursue such a chance and will conceivably reallocate a few of these funds to a reunion with Eovaldi.
Grey has carried out moderately properly since signing in Texas however has been injured every season and watched his strikeout fee drop in consecutive years. The 32-year-old righty (33 subsequent month) made solely 19 begins this season and pitched to a serviceable 4.47 ERA with a 19.6% strikeout fee, 6.4% stroll fee and 40.1% ground-ball fee. In three seasons with Texas, the hard-throwing former No. 3 general choose carries a 4.16 ERA in 387 1/3 innings. His contract is hardly an albatross, however there additionally isn’t a lot (if any) surplus worth on the deal.
Speculatively talking, the Rangers might look to unlock cash in different methods in the event that they really feel crunched. Righty Dane Dunning’s projected $4.4MM wage (through MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) makes him a possible non-tender or commerce candidate after a tough season. Leody Taveras ($4.3MM projection) additionally had a tricky 12 months and may very well be moved with youthful outfielders Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter each within the majors now (and hopefully more healthy in 2025). Nathaniel Lowe’s $10.7MM projection isn’t unreasonable, however Texas might hypothetically transfer him and switch first base over to a prospect like Justin Foscue or Dustin Harris (or a less expensive first base possibility in free company, reminiscent of Carlos Santana). It’d be arduous to promote low on Adolis Garcia coming off a down season, and Grant suggests such a situation isn’t seemingly.
Any of these trades would solely open additional holes, although the Rangers have the kind of MLB-ready younger gamers (Langford, Carter, Foscue, Harris) to attempt to deal with them internally. Additionally they have some younger arms on which they may lean within the rotation — Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter — however Leiter struggled in 2024 and Rocker can be on an innings restrict in 2025 as he continues working again from Tommy John surgical procedure. The necessity within the bullpen is arguably extra acute, and the in-house choices aren’t precisely plentiful.
It’ll be a difficult offseason for president of baseball operations Chris Younger. The Rangers ought to have some cash to spend, however the variety of holes are as daunting as they’re shocking for a crew that’s simply 12 months faraway from hoisting a World Collection trophy.
