The Breeders’ Cup World Championships is the last word handicapping puzzle for horseplayers, and it’s particularly interesting to those that adhere to the maxim of “guess just a little to win quite a bit.”
The 14-race slate of Breeders’ Cup races brings collectively nice horses from all areas within the U.S. in addition to from abroad, which implies that 12 months after 12 months, top-class runners with full résumés go off at odds far larger than they’d in some other setting.
Discovering and enjoying longshots within the Breeders’ Cup can turn into much more profitable if you’ll be able to additionally choose – and toss out of your betting slips – a number of horses which are underlays; that’s, ones which are receiving extra help from bettors than they need to and thus carrying decrease odds (try ABR’s primer on playing phrases for more information). Zigging whereas everybody else zags is the essence of astute betting in any atmosphere, and in horse racing it might result in astronomical payouts.
So, which morning-line favorites within the 2024 Breeders’ Cup are susceptible to lose at brief odds? 4 candidates are listed under from the 41st renewal of the World Championships and the third time the occasion is held “the place the turf meets the surf” – sensational Del Mar.
1. Lake Victoria (8-5, John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf): This filly enters the Breeders’ Cup checking each field that seemingly will be checked – she’s from the Coolmore colossus, skilled by Aidan O’Brien with Ryan Moore within the saddle, and most significantly, she’s undefeated by 4 begins in England and Eire, the final two being Group 1 stakes victories. Nevertheless … her final three wins have come in opposition to a complete of 16 opponents and she or he’ll most likely be going through 13 on this race, she’s breaking from the rail, and she or he has not raced round one flip but, a lot much less two as all 4 of her wins have come on straight configurations. She’ll want to interrupt properly and never get crowded by a number of horses drawn close to to her on the skin to be able to not get shuffled too far again earlier than the primary flip. She additionally should deal with the pace of second morning-line selection Thought Course of (5-2), a Del Mar-based filly who I count on will attempt to wire the sector. There are a number of intriguing longshots price contemplating within the Juvenile Fillies Turf, two of which – 20-1 photographs Kilwin and Could Day Prepared – are mentioned in Mike Curry’s Breeders’ Cup betting column. I really suppose Lake Victoria’s stablemate Heaven’s Gate (12-1) stands an opportunity at posting the upset as properly. I anticipate Lake Victoria will run very properly within the Juvenile Fillies Turf, however there are too many variables at play right here to just accept 8-5 odds within the win pool.
2. New Century (5-2, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf): New Century received the bet365.com Summer time Stakes at Woodbine on Sept. 14 in his first North American begin, surging late to outfinish the Charlie Appleby-trained Al Qudra (4-1), who’s additionally entered within the Juvenile Turf. That race was held at a one-turn mile, and each have been spectacular (Al Qudra would possibly really find yourself because the post-time favourite within the BC Juvenile Turf). Nonetheless, as with the Juvenile Fillies Turf, this two-turn mile race ought to have a full subject breaking from the gate, and there are too many different high quality contenders current to again both of these runners at their morning-line odds. Among the many options, Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore ship out Henri Matisse (6-1), who has received two Group 2 stakes and likewise completed a detailed second a Group 1 and run properly in all three begins on turf rated nearly as good. Notably, Appleby’s different entrant, Group 2 stakes winner Aomori Metropolis (10-1), might be ridden by his first-call jockey William Buick, who was on Al Qudra within the Summer time Stakes. Chad Brown-trained Zulu Kingdom, an Irish-bred ridgling who’s 3-for-3 up to now with two wins at 1 1/16 miles, must be flying late underneath Flavien Prat and appears harmful as properly at 8-1 on the morning line.
3. Metropolis of Troy (5-2, Longines Breeders’ Cup Basic): Coolmore’s star 3-year-old is positively the middle of debate coming into Breeders’ Cup 2024, touting a 6-for-7 report highlighted by three consecutive open-length wins in Group 1 stakes a mile and 1 / 4 or longer. In fact, they have been all on turf, as have been all of his races, and on this “floor” query the dividing strains have been drawn. My take? Although he’s a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, accepting 5-2 odds on a colt that’s by no means competed on filth earlier than in opposition to a full subject of completed filth runners is inadvisable to say the least. Subsequent up on the percentages board is Fierceness (3-1), who would possibly find yourself the post-time favourite, and I’ve my doubts about his probabilities at a mile and 1 / 4 regardless of his spectacular win within the DraftKings Travers Stakes, which was aided by a trouble-free journey. That leaves a handful of contenders price contemplating at odds approaching or exceeding double-digits. I want Arthur’s Trip (15-1) didn’t draw an out of doors submit place, however however he received the Whitney Stakes from an analogous submit in overpowering style – and should you like him, you’ve additionally bought to contemplate the horse that defeated him subsequent out within the Jockey Membership Gold Cup Stakes, Highland Falls (20-1). That colt will exit submit no. 2, simply to the within of Metropolis of Troy, and I count on jockey Luis Saez to be aggressive in establishing a dominant place from the break, probably crowding out his European rival. Japan’s Ceaselessly Younger (6-1) and Ushba Tesoro (12-1) additionally deserve consideration in an interesting betting race. I’ll be leaving Metropolis of Troy out of all three spots within the trifecta and utilizing Fierceness solely in third.
4. Battle Like Goddess (5-2, Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf): This one is hard as a result of I, like many others, am a Battle Like Goddess fan and have been since she received her first stakes races again in spring 2021 through the early post-COVID days of returning to in-person attendance on the monitor. She’s confronted all comers since then, profitable two Grade 1 stakes in opposition to males and working one in all her greatest races on this occasion again in fall 2021 at Del Mar when she completed third by a half-length. Nonetheless, Battle Like Goddess has solely received one in all her 4 begins this 12 months at age 7 and, nearly as good as she’s been by the years, she’s not sufficient of a “win machine” (12-for-22 lifetime) to help at these odds. Entrants from Godolphin/Appleby (Cinderella’s Dream at 4-1) and Coolmore/O’Brien (Content material at 6-1) determine to be powerful, and I’ll even be taking an extended have a look at Canadian 2022 Horse of the 12 months Moira. That mare was a rallying third in final 12 months’s Filly & Mare Turf at Santa Anita Park, and in her prep race for Saturday she had means, means an excessive amount of floor to make up because the odds-on favourite in Woodbine’s E. P. Taylor Stakes and needed to accept second behind pacesetter Full Rely Felicia (entered right here at 12-1). I count on Flavien Prat to maintain Moira a lot nearer to the tempo within the Filly & Mare Turf and she will be able to spring the upset at 8-1 morning-line odds.
