The Finest and Worst Baserunning Performs of the Postseason

It’s not arduous to recollect who had the most important hits of the postseason, neither is it arduous to recollect which famous person sluggers got here up quick. However what in regards to the parts of offense that don’t happen on the plate? This previous October had no scarcity of riveting performs on the basepaths, so I believed it will be enjoyable to look again at a number of the most skillful baserunning, a number of the least skillful baserunning, and both approach, a number of the most consequential baserunning performs of the 2024 playoffs.

To calculate baserunning worth, the brilliant minds at Baseball Savant have developed a system that estimates runs above or beneath common for 10 completely different classes of “advance alternatives” on balls in play. There’s definitely room for disagreement with the best way the automated system evaluates performs, however these numbers are a fantastic jumping-off level. That’s very true with regards to dangerous performs, for which there’s a transparent delineation between probably the most dangerous baserunning choices and extra forgivable errors.

Six runners bumped into an out that price their workforce 0.80 runs or extra this postseason. No different baserunning play scored worse than -0.20 runner runs. Right here’s a chart and a video compilation of these six disastrous choices. I’ve additionally included Savant’s seventh-most detrimental baserunning play of the postseason for comparability:

The choices by Bohm and Malloy to attempt for second, in addition to third base coach Luis Rojas’ option to wave Torres house, have been all various levels of justifiable. That’s to not say any of them have been sensible performs, nevertheless it’s vital to keep in mind that getting thrown out doesn’t essentially imply a baserunner made a mistake. A participant who by no means will get thrown out on the bases isn’t taking sufficient dangers.

Stanton’s out at house is on the prime of the listing for a cause. It was robust to observe him lumbering down the third final analysis within the second, and it’s even tougher to observe in hindsight once I know the result. It makes me really feel like I’m watching a horror film, however as a substitute of eager to scream at Stanton to remain out of the basement, I need to inform him to carry up it doesn’t matter what Rojas was signaling. I might say the identical of Perez, who’s each bit as gradual as Stanton. Juan Soto made a terrific throw, however all the identical, third base coach Vance Wilson had no enterprise sending Perez on that play. As for the inelegant slide into house, that’s all on Perez.

That being stated, I hesitate to name both of these performs the worst instance of baserunning within the postseason. For one factor, it’s clear from the clips that their coaches have been extra guilty. What’s extra, it will be fairly boring of me to choose one of many greatest, slowest gamers within the recreation because the wrongdoer behind the worst baserunning flub of October. In order that brings me to Winker in Sport 1 of the NLCS.

Right here’s that play yet one more time:

By my depend, Winker made three baserunning blunders in a really quick time. His first mistake was taking too far of a flip round second base. His second mistake was realizing his first mistake and briefly turning again towards second earlier than altering his thoughts as soon as once more and persevering with towards third. His third mistake was giving up far too simply. He didn’t bolt for third and attempt to slide below Max Muncy’s tag, nor did he power the Dodgers to run him down, which could have given Jose Iglesias an opportunity to succeed in second base. Fairly than placing up a battle, he mainly simply admitted defeat.

The Dodgers went on to win that recreation 9-0. Winker’s poor baserunning was hardly the one factor that did the Mets in. Nonetheless, if he’d held up at second base, it will have been the one time in your entire recreation the Mets had a runner in scoring place with no outs. As an alternative, Winker killed what little momentum the Mets nearly mustered. So, of the 513 ball-in-play baserunning occasions that Baseball Savant scored in the course of the playoffs, this will get my vote because the very worst of the lot.

I additionally went again and watched each caught stealing and pickoff play of the postseason to seek out the worst little bit of baserunning that didn’t come on a ball in play. Not one of the straight-up caught stealing performs stand out to me as notably egregious, though I made a compilation video so you may decide for yourselves. The compilation additionally contains Matt Vierling getting caught at second — a play that technically wasn’t thought-about as a stolen base try, presumably as a result of it will have been formally scored a wild pitch if he have been protected:

As for the pickoffs, all 4 look embarrassing for the baserunners. Pickoffs nearly at all times do. Right here they’re, and I apologize prematurely that the clip of Trevino’s pickoff on MLB Movie Room is incomplete. But it surely’s not like you may’t extrapolate what’s going to occur. I additionally included Anthony Rizzo’s TOOTBLAN is Sport 2 of the ALCS. Just like the Vierling play, it technically wasn’t scored as a pickoff as a result of it began with a ball within the filth, nevertheless it’s shut sufficient for our functions:

The clip of Francisco Lindor is a nasty search for the sometimes wonderful baserunner. The digicam exhibits that Lindor misinterpret pitcher Brent Honeywell and began to take off for second base far too quickly. Honeywell made him pay. Rizzo’s rundown was embarrassing, too, though after seeing the best way Winker responded in a considerably comparable state of affairs, I’ll give Rizzo credit score for making a bit extra of an effort.

The very worst of all these caught stealing and pickoff performs got here simply earlier than Rizzo’s slip-up. Two batters earlier, Jazz Chisholm Jr. additionally bumped into an out at second, and this one was a correct pickoff. It was the one occasion out of all of the caught stealing and pickoff performs I confirmed you by which the runner was already safely in scoring place with no outs. There was little cause for Chisholm to take such an aggressive lead towards third base. (Apparently the Yankees have been planning to try a double steal, however Chisholm took off too early). In response to Baseball Reference WPA, Chisholm’s pickoff was probably the most dangerous caught stealing or pickoff play of the postseason (-0.076 WPA). It was additionally, by far, the worst caught stealing or pickoff play by championship Win Chance Added, lowering the Yankees’ probabilities of profitable the World Collection by 1.21%. And but, I can’t blame Chisholm too a lot for his aggressive leads as a result of, as you’re about to see, he was additionally answerable for a number of the best possible baserunning performs we noticed this previous October.

It’s considerably tougher to establish the most effective baserunning performs than the worst. Merely put, it’s a lot simpler to seek out performs by which a runner bumped into an out than to separate the most effective development choices from extra commonplace ones. A runner goes from first to 3rd on a single nearly each recreation; when is that good baserunning versus routine execution? All this to say, there aren’t any optimistic baserunning performs price upwards of 0.80 runner runs on Baseball Savant. The highest three performs of the postseason every added 0.25 runs of worth. The subsequent six got here in at +0.24 runs. That stated, these information nonetheless provide jumping-off level for this train.

I went digging for the highest 10 baserunning performs on balls in play this postseason and got here again with 11 as a result of a tie on the backside of the listing. Listed below are these 11 performs in chart kind:

I wasn’t blown away by any of the three performs with a +0.25 run worth. All three have been the results of at the very least one defensive miscue and none concerned a aggressive throw. Understanding easy methods to make the most of poor protection is definitely a ability, as is transferring quick sufficient to take an additional base with out the protection even bothering to make a throw. Very similar to how the most effective defenders make robust performs look routine, the most effective baserunners could make low-percentage developments look straightforward. Nonetheless, check out these three clips, and I’m certain you’ll forgive me for skipping previous them as I attempt to discover the most effective baserunning performs of the playoffs.

I used to be far more impressed with just a few of the performs that had a +0.24 and +0.23 run worth. However let’s begin with the 5 that didn’t flip my head. Lindor made a pleasant slide to safe a double in Sport 2 of the Wild Card Collection, however he was solely protected as a result of Turang couldn’t maintain onto the ball to use the tag. In the meantime, Stott bolted his solution to an RBI triple in Sport 2 of the NLDS, however everybody was protected with no aggressive throw.

Shifting on to the NLCS, Ohtani scored from first on a Mookie Betts double in Sport 1, however he did so with no throw. Certainly, the Mets fairly clearly knew he was going to attain nicely earlier than the ball landed within the cutoff man’s glove. Then, in Sport 4 of the NLCS, Marte doubled as a result of Betts badly misinterpret a groundball to proper subject. Lastly, Volpe earned 0.23 runs of baserunning credit score for a double within the World Collection, however he would have been out if Lux hadn’t misplaced the baseball. Right here’s a compilation of these 5 performs in your viewing pleasure:

Now, let’s get to the three performs I actually preferred. Again within the NLDS, Lux made a fantastic learn on an Enrique Hernández single to shallow heart and sprinted from first to 3rd, beating Jackson Merrill’s throw. Meadows additionally made a terrific learn on a pop fly within the ALDS, turning what might have been a routine out right into a double. Right here’s what these two performs seemed like:

Nonetheless, of those 11 baserunning performs, one clearly stood above the remainder. Right here is Chisholm scoring from second on an Alex Verdugo single in all its glory:

This was terrific tv from begin to finish. The thoughts video games happening between Chisholm and Michael Lorenzen have been nearly palpable. The footwork dance battle between Chisholm and Bobby Witt Jr. was pleasant. Chisholm’s determination to not slide might have been disastrous, however as a substitute it labored out completely (though the house plate umpire would possibly disagree). And the higher context of the sport solely makes the play extra thrilling. Chisholm was solely at second base due to a controversial protected name on a stolen base earlier within the inning. The umpire on the sphere referred to as him protected. The umpires in New York discovered the replay proof inconclusive, regardless that it appeared fairly clear to the typical viewer that Chisholm was out. Whereas a much less brave baserunner may need exercised extra warning after surviving by the pores and skin of his tooth, Chisholm remained aggressive. It paid off.

In response to Baseball Reference WPA, Verdugo’s single was the tenth most precious ball in play (i.e. non-homer) of the postseason. Just a few of these 9 different performs concerned good baserunning, however there have been none, I’d argue, by which good baserunning was fairly as important to the shift in win chance. Have a look for your self. (Aspect word: Whereas placing this compilation collectively, I discovered that MLB movie room gained’t allow you to make a video with the phrase “balls” within the title. Looks like a design flaw.)

So, Chisholm will get my vote for the most effective ball-in-play baserunning play of the postseason. And that’s not all. He additionally supplied the 2 most consequential stolen bases of the postseason, in keeping with Baseball Reference WPA and cWPA. Not solely that, however these two stolen bases got here three pitches aside within the prime of the tenth inning of Sport 1 of the World Collection. One other three pitches later, he scored what would have been the profitable run if not for Freddie Freeman’s walk-off grand slam. Even with no compilation video of the opposite 60 stolen bases this October, I really feel assured giving Chisholm the crown for the most effective stolen base sequence of the playoffs. Right here’s a have a look at the entire sequence of occasions:

Not one of the performs I wrote about as we speak will probably be remembered for practically so long as Freeman’s massive hits, Gerrit Cole’s valiant efforts, or the poor protection that finally sunk the Yankees in Sport 5. However I like writing about baserunning exactly as a result of it will get far much less consideration than most different points of the sport. I’m glad I had the possibility to look again on all this motion on the basepaths earlier than all of us flip our consideration to the offseason forward.