When Brandon Lowe was wholesome in 2020 and ’21, he was arguably the most effective second baseman in baseball. The Rays slugger led major second basemen in residence runs, RBI, OPS, wRC+, and FanGraphs WAR over these two seasons. Sadly, he has missed important time with varied accidents in every of the three years since. When he takes the sector, nevertheless, Lowe remains to be a extremely productive participant. He launched 21 homers in 107 video games this previous season whereas producing a 123 wRC+ and a couple of.2 fWAR. His .350 xwOBA ranked within the eighty fifth percentile of main league hitters.
Earlier this month, Tampa Bay picked up a $10.5MM workforce possibility for Lowe’s providers in 2025, fairly than paying him a $1MM buyout and sending him off to free company. The Rays may be notoriously close-fisted, however nonetheless, there was little doubt they’d train the choice. A web $9.5MM is a discount for a participant like Lowe, even when he sits out a 3rd of the season with accidents as soon as once more. That being mentioned, a $10.5MM wage places Lowe in a tie with Jeffrey Springs for the best paycheck on the membership subsequent 12 months. To place it one other means, it’s roughly 12% of the workforce’s estimated payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource). Thus, it’s greater than truthful to marvel if the Rays would fairly unfold that cash throughout a number of roster spots fairly than give all of it to 1 injury-prone participant. In different phrases, it’s truthful to marvel if Lowe will likely be sporting a brand new uniform by Opening Day subsequent March.
Tampa Bay has an extended observe of buying and selling veteran gamers as soon as their salaries begin to improve, even when the workforce remains to be planning to contend. Because the Rays enter the 2024-25 offseason coming off their worst end since 2017, and coming off a season by which they offered massive on the commerce deadline, it appears much more plausible that they’d take into account buying and selling Lowe. Moreover, the Rays have a number of inner choices who might exchange Lowe within the lineup (even when they’ll’t essentially exchange his manufacturing). Certainly one of Junior Caminero or José Caballero might probably slide over to second base, whereas Christopher Morel might slot in for Caminero at third base or Taylor Partitions might exchange Caballero at shortstop. Former prime prospect Curtis Mead is one other infielder to remember.
Then once more, the truth that the Rays didn’t commerce Lowe finally 12 months’s deadline might be a sign that they’d like to carry onto him for 2025. In spite of everything, they may be low cost, however additionally they love a great worth play. If the Rays store Lowe round and are available to the conclusion that he’s severely undervalued across the league, they may want to carry onto him.
Again in August, Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola instructed Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Instances, “I don’t assume the business and even our personal followers perceive the influence [Lowe] makes in our lineup.” If president of baseball operations Erik Neander shares that opinion, he may be hesitant to half along with his All-Star second baseman. Neander just lately expressed confidence in Lowe’s bat and glove, telling Topkin, that Lowe is “most precious” as a second baseman however that the workforce might proceed to offer him a while at first base and DH subsequent season to have his highly effective bat within the lineup as usually as attainable.
It’s additionally value mentioning that Lowe has one other workforce possibility for 2026 (valued at $11.5MM with a $500K buyout), which suggests Tampa Bay might maintain him round for the beginning of subsequent season and nonetheless have the pliability to commerce him at a later date. What’s extra, the Rays have quite a few different commerce candidates on the roster. Lowe isn’t the one participant they’ll flip in the event that they’re going through stress to chop payroll in gentle of the harm to Tropicana Subject or the workforce’s present lack of a broadcast deal.
First baseman Yandy Díaz and nearer Pete Fairbanks are two of the highest 10 gamers on MLBTR’s record of the prime 35 commerce candidates of the offseason. Díaz (no. 5) will likely be making $10MM subsequent 12 months, and he has a $12MM workforce possibility for the next season. His contract additionally features a $1MM commerce project bonus. Fairbanks (no. 7) is ready to gather $3.67MM in 2025, and he has a $7MM membership possibility with a $1MM buyout for 2026. Yet another title to remember is Zack Littell. He doesn’t have the identical star energy as Díaz and even Fairbanks, however he has confirmed himself to be a succesful mid-rotation starter during the last 12 months and a half. He made simply $1.85MM this previous season, however he’s projected to earn near a $3MM increase in his ultimate 12 months of arbitration eligibility.
One other issue to think about is the marketplace for second baseman this offseason, each when it comes to free brokers and commerce candidates. Solely two of MLBTR’s prime 50 free brokers are major second basemen: Gleyber Torres (no. 20) and Hyeseong Kim (no. 26). One might simply think about why groups would like Lowe over both of them, particularly on such a team-friendly contract. Nonetheless, issues might get extra sophisticated if any groups are critically pursuing Alex Bregman (no. 3), Willy Adames (no. 5), or Ha-Seong Kim (no. 43) to play second base. Ha-Seong Kim was a major second baseman as just lately as 2023, whereas each Adames and Bregman have expressed a willingness to modify positions.
As for the commerce market, second basemen who might be on the transfer embrace Luis Arraez (no. 17 on MLBTR’s prime commerce candidates record), Brendan Donovan (no. 20), and Nolan Gorman (no. 21). Nonetheless, none of these gamers appear notably more likely to be dealt, and so they all fill completely different niches than Lowe. Funnily sufficient, all 4 bat left-handed, however Lowe is the one one who gives confirmed, middle-of-the-order energy in opposition to each left- and right-handed pitching.
So, do you assume the Rays will maintain onto Lowe this winter? Or will they’ve a brand new second baseman on Opening Day 2025? Have your say within the ballot under!
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Picture courtesy of USA Immediately Sports activities.
