Effectively, the Mets actually did it. On Tuesday, they lastly went out and landed the electrical Dominican outfielder with the massive instruments and the ebullient character, the one they’d been dreaming of for thus very lengthy. Effectively, they landed considered one of the electrical Dominican outfielders they’d been dreaming of, anyway.
In a one-for-one swap, the Mets obtained middle fielder Jose Siri from the Rays in trade for right-handed pitching prospect Eric Orze. Siri is an exciting participant with 4 jaw-dropping instruments: energy, protection, pace, and throwing. The entire absence of a success software leaves him type of like a ship with the world’s best bilge pump and a gaping gap within the hull. He’s ceaselessly battling to mash sufficient moonshots and make sufficient inconceivable catches to remain afloat regardless of operating a strikeout price that falls someplace between catastrophic and cataclysmic. In a transfer that may shock nobody who’s even passingly conversant in the Rays, the group turned Siri right into a pitching prospect the second he may conceivably start to value them precise cash. The Mets now management Siri for his three arbitration years, and MLB Commerce Rumors initiatives him for a $2.3 million wage in 2025 (plus a luxurious tax penalty). Provided that the commerce went down Tuesday, the Rays have in all probability already turned Orze right into a bona fide ace.
The transfer may point out one thing of a sample for the Mets, who signed the glove-first Harrison Bader to a one-year contract earlier than the 2024 season. Right here’s how comparable the 2 gamers are: On the time of his signing, Bader was 29 years previous and had posted a profession wRC+ of 90 whereas averaging 20 OAA per 150 video games. Proper now, Siri is 29 years previous and has posted a profession wRC+ of 89 whereas averaging 19.1 OAA per 150 video games.
That transfer didn’t precisely pan out. Bader managed to keep away from the injured listing for the primary time since 2020 and his 85 wRC+ wasn’t far under his profession mark, but it surely wasn’t precisely the bounce-back season the Mets had hoped for. He began almost each recreation in opposition to right-handed pitching, however in opposition to lefties, he went from ceding the occasional begin to Tyrone Taylor at the start of the season to sitting most of the time by the top of it. This wasn’t ideally suited contemplating Bader has a profession 109 wRC+ vs. lefties and an 84 wRC+ vs. righties. By the point the playoffs rolled round, he was the odd man out. He bought into almost all the group’s postseason video games, however began simply twice and made simply six plate appearances.
In all, the Mets bought simply 1.6 WAR in middle discipline in 2024. That ranked twenty second in all of baseball, and it was the bottom rating of any place on the sphere for the group. The one different spots on the diamond the place the Mets had been even within the backside half of the league had been beginning pitcher, catcher, and proper discipline. With Bader and Jesse Winker coming into free company and Taylor present process surgical procedure to restore a hernia and take away a unfastened physique from his throwing elbow, Siri is unlikely to be the final outfielder the Mets purchase this offseason.
The Athletic’s Will Sammon cited sources who reported that this wasn’t the primary time the Mets had sought to get their arms Siri, and it’s not onerous to see why. Siri is as tempting a undertaking as any participant within the recreation. He’s an extremely gifted defensive middle fielder with mild tower energy and completely no semblance of plate self-discipline or contact means. The group that would get him to chase just a bit bit much less, to whiff just a bit bit much less, would have a monster on its arms. Nonetheless, Siri is coming into his age-29 season, and it’s onerous to think about that even the group that wished him badly sufficient to danger the humiliation of buying and selling a pitching prospect to the Rays actually expects to lastly unlock him. Not like lower-back ache, plate self-discipline isn’t one thing you simply occur to select up when you hit your 30s. In 2024, Siri ran a 37.9% strikeout price. Amongst gamers with 400 plate appearances in a season, that’s the third-highest mark in main league historical past. His 35.8% profession strikeout price ranks 14th on our profession leaderboard, and 5 of the 13 gamers forward of him had been pitchers.
Identical to Bader in Flushing, Siri began dropping taking part in time because the 2024 season went on. Jonny DeLuca, who in 2024 featured – and cease me in the event you’ve heard this earlier than – wonderful pace and protection to go along with some bother getting on base, absorbed that taking part in time and can presumably be beginning in middle for the Rays subsequent season. This time, the Mets bought their strong, if flawed, middle fielder on the commerce market as a result of there actually aren’t any available in free company. Understandably, they’re not eager to journey the Bader prepare once more. Michael A. Taylor and Manuel Margot, the one different true middle fielders on the free agent market, are each on the mistaken aspect of 30 and coming off their very own extraordinarily down 2024 seasons. Siri’s manufacturing might look quite a bit like Bader’s, however he’s bought a greater monitor document relating to well being, and since he value a prospect fairly than a free agent contract, he’ll include a smaller luxurious cap hit.
In Orze, the Rays landed a 27-year-old multi-inning reliever with a killer splitter and a modest monitor document of minor league success. The Mets chosen him within the fifth spherical of the 2020 draft out of the College of New Orleans. If you happen to’re conversant in him already, you’re both conscious that he has survived two varieties of most cancers otherwise you’ve heard about his unlucky main league debut. On July 8, Orze entered within the sixth inning in opposition to the Pirates and allowed a stroll and two singles with out recording an out. All three runners would rating and he’d be tagged with the loss to go together with his infinite ERA. Orze would make only one extra look with the Mets.
Regardless of an unspectacular 29.7% chase price within the minors in 2024, Orze has had wonderful strikeout charges all through his minor league profession. Nonetheless, these strikeouts have come hand-in-hand with dangerously excessive stroll charges. In 2022, Eric Longenhagen ranked Orze seventh in Mets system, writing that he was a “near-ready multi-inning reliever… an excellent precious piece for a contending group, and an enormous draft and dev feather within the cap of the org.” Sadly, Orze stalled out, posting a 5.13 ERA at Triple-A Syracuse in 2022 and a 5.31 ERA there in 2023. After the ranked portion of the group’s 2024 prospect listing, Eric wrote merely that Orze “has a plus-plus changeup and struggles to throw strikes.” He wasn’t mistaken. Amongst minor leaguers with not less than 75 plate appearances tracked by Statcast in 2024, Orze’s 44% zone price put him within the simply thirteenth percentile.
To be truthful, Orze’s peripherals outpaced his ERA, particularly in 2022. In 2024, he had a 2.92 ERA with a 3.65 xFIP. He seems like a basic pronator, capable of make the ball run to his arm aspect at will. Each scouts and stuff fashions are in love together with his splitter, and his slider needs to be serviceable. His four-seamer is the issue. The pitch averages a hair beneath 94 mph, and as you possibly can see from Max Bay’s Dynamic Lifeless Zone app, its motion profile is unlikely to idiot too many hitters.
See how the pink oval of the pitch’s precise form matches up virtually completely with the sunshine blue ovals that point out the form {that a} batter would count on? That’s no good. If the Rays are going to show Orze into their subsequent star, they’ll want to assist him together with his command, they usually’ll want to assist him unlock a greater fastball. Nonetheless, we’ve been doing this lengthy sufficient to know that when the Rays publish one thing like this on Bluesky, everybody needs to be afraid.
