Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 12/2/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a ton of baseball-y stuff to speak about right now, although I’m hoping that adjustments in per week’s time or so when winter conferences warmth up

Ben Clemens: however let’s simply get proper into it and possibly get some seize bag subjects in too

Doug: Do you assume the Snell signing might make Sasaki much less prone to go to Dodgers given they’ve sufficient rotation depth/expertise to simply ship him down if he struggles?

Ben Clemens: Eh… on the margin, sure. However ‘oh the Dodgers positively have sufficient beginning pitching’ has by no means been a great guess

Ben Clemens: I count on them to go six man rotation, I count on them to take care of a ton of accidents as a result of they at all times do, there might be innings for him even when he struggles

Bob Loblaw, Esq.: Ideas on the Boyd signing? Are the Cubs trying to flip him?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume that signing somebody hoping to flip them makes a ton of sense, significantly for a staff just like the Cubs with playoff aspirations. I do assume that they’re attempting to get out in entrance of the market in a lot teh similar approach the Mets did with Montas

Ben Clemens: They want innings, they usually in all probability didn’t wish to be looking for them in January or February

Ben Clemens: That mentioned, the worth tag shouldn’t be nothing for a man who was obtainable without spending a dime final yr. I believe I might have appeared elsewhere, personally, although I’m not wildly assured in that view

jaygray007: It looks like pitching is at the least reasonably dearer than we thought it was going to be.   Do you anticipate this which means that any kind of mlb-ready cost-controlled pitching might deliver again extra in trades than possibly we’re used to?

Ben Clemens: One factor that is still to be seen is whether or not it’s pitching or all free brokers

Ben Clemens: The primary few offers have been coming in above my estimates and the gang as properly

Ben Clemens: It’s attention-grabbing, I spent a very long time attempting to trim my estimates right down to even decrease than they ended up. I’ve some forcing features within the background that attempt to restrict the general quantity of spending per win, in order that I don’t get too caught up in comps and market analysis and find yourself with a projection that’s approach off of what you’d count on from prior years

Ben Clemens: and that operate stored telling me to chop estimates based mostly on what we noticed prior to now few years. I ended up principally ignoring it and coming in fairly far above what it will counsel. Guess I ought to have ignored it much more

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume it’ll have an effect on the commerce market all that a lot as a result of pitchers had been already very invaluable in commerce, I believe that’ll simply proceed

Idiotic Failson: I’m certain you’ve seen the ‘Yanks are topping out at $550mm for Soto and he already has a number of $600mm affords in hand’ report by now. Do you purchase it, and can the Yankees remorse (lol) letting Soto go to the Pink Sox (for instance) for $600mm?

Ben Clemens: I don’t purchase it

Ben Clemens: Like I’m certain somebody mentioned that to a reporter, or one thing related

Ben Clemens: however I doubt it’s set in stone and even the present scenario on the bottom

Ben Clemens: like possibly they provided 10/550? however this looks like a deal they aren’t going to lose for cash’s sake

Andre Thee Big: Chaim Bloom’s 2021-23 drafts had been superb high-ceiling expertise grabs adopted by robust improvement. He gained’t be there when the Pink Sox ascend, however do you assume the success they’ll doubtless have will quickly get him one other job on the prime of an org? Gracias.

Ben Clemens: I do! Possibly, I dunno, the Cardinals? 🙂

Joe: 2025 Cardinals – one final wholehearted strive for Mozeliak, or a yr for Bloom to begin enacting a retool?   Gamers sensible considering principally if Arenado and Sonny Grey stick with the Membership.

Ben Clemens: I’m leaning extra in the direction of the retool. You don’t herald Chaim Bloom to stay with the identical previous plan of buying and selling for main league producers and whatnot

Ben Clemens: I’m unsure what which means for Arenado, it certain looks like he desires out however it looks like a tough commerce. Grey, however: I believe he’ll be gone in the event that they’re retooling as a result of he’s on a brief deal at an inexpensive value

Ben Clemens: that’s the sort of commerce bundle that each staff is on the lookout for

Thanks for the chat!: Do all (most) gamers have brokers? Even the fellows making minimal, Quad A, and so on.?

Appa Yip Yip: Is it tougher to pitch Aaron Choose up as a result of as a way to get the ball excessive sufficient you must throw what is often a waste pitch and that’s simply bizarre to do on objective?

Ben Clemens: Identical to it’s simpler to pitch Altuve up

Ben Clemens: however, it’s rather a lot simpler to assault Choose low for principally the identical motive

Ben Clemens: and he will get too many strikes referred to as on him low within the zone as a result of umpires have the identical subject

Def not Chris Getz: Im taking part in a sport of hen with groups on Garrett Crochet. Am I good for ready for the massive SP and Soto to go off the board earlier than I deal my ace or am I simply limiting my choices if the Dodgers/Pink Sox/Orioles/and so on signal pitchers in free company as a substitute?

Ben Clemens: I’m usually a fan of setting a value and ready to both have it hit or for somebody to get determined earlier than altering techniques

Ben Clemens: there isn’t sufficient pitching to go round, significantly for groups who aren’t dropping 150 million on a free agent, so I believe the market will stay sturdy irrespective of the place the highest guys signal

Bencle Mens: Let me begin by saying I don’t want a wage cap. BUT is there a technique to encourage non-Dodger groups to get inventive with their contract affords as properly? Is it solely the Dodgers’ want to flout the luxurious tax that conjures up them?

Ben Clemens: The Nationals have been doing this for greater than a decade

Ben Clemens: the A’s provided Marcus Semien essentially the most insulting contract of all time however in a goofily structured approach

Ben Clemens: one yr, $10 million, however paid in 10 $1 million installments over 10 years

Ben Clemens: the Dodgers don’t have a monopoly on bizarre, deferred-y offers. however actually, the deferred isn’t serving to them out THAT a lot, it’s the truth that they’re keen to spend to win

Ben Clemens: like they’re nonetheless setting apart $46 million a yr for Ohtani

drhotdog: do you assume the Boyd and Montas signings make the Kikuchi deal look any higher?

Ben Clemens: I believe that each pitching deal has comein above ‘consensus’ and it’s solely plossible that the majority offers do, now that the financial image feels rather less unsettled than a yr in the past

2030s: Will the Dodgers be restricted by all of the deferred cash they’ll be paying subsequent decade? Or will the financial realities of baseball permit them to principally shrug it off?

Ben Clemens: I don’t, due to the best way the escrow works

Ben Clemens: they don’t get to only not take into consideration the cash till the longer term, they’re required to set an NPV’ed quantity apart within the yr it’s earned

Ben Clemens: so that they’re setting apart a bunch of cash proper now. I’m not 100% certain what investments are allowed with that cash, however they must pony it up now, which implies they’re not going to all of a sudden must pay out $100 million out of nowhere in 2030 or no matter

Kevin: it appears extremely prone to me that because of declining media income affords to mid-range free brokers are going to be fewer and smaller than gamers and brokers have come to count on. What’s your view?

Ben Clemens: I assumed that earlier than the offeseason

Ben Clemens: that definitely was the case within the 2024 offseason

Ben Clemens: I suppose we’ll see. however Frankie Montas and Matt Boyd really feel very mid-range to me, they usually each received good offers

David: Shouldn’t the worth start to drop for beginning pitching? They’re throwing fewer innings and turning it over sooner to the bullpen.

Ben Clemens: The worth per WAR hasn’t modified a lot, so I suppose what you’re saying is already occurring

Ben Clemens: however it’s tough, as a result of wage is as a lot about shortage as worth, and good beginning pitching is scarce lately

David: Wouldn’t the Yankees be higher off letting Soto stroll and filling roster holes with different free brokers so Choose can transfer over to a nook?

Ben Clemens: what free brokers

Ben Clemens: like, they’re gonna go signal Alex Bregman and Gleyber Torres?

Ben Clemens: I believe that will in all probability price extra per yr than Soto will

Ben Clemens: do you really assume that offense could be higher than one with Soto and a prospect? I certain don’t

Ben Clemens: why can’t Choose transfer to a nook even with Soto on the town anyway?

Ben Clemens: I’d be attempting Dominguez out in heart for certain

Joe: Which FanGraphs festive mild colors are you utilizing?

Ben Clemens: I’m liking the basic ones

Ben Clemens: the A’s lights look kinda cool, however I similar to common christmas colours

Tacoby Bellsbury: There have been rumblings concerning the Phillies attempting to get out from beneath the Nick Castellanos contract. Is there a damaged-goods commerce that will line up for the Phillies and another accomplice to maneuver him out of city?

Adam: How do you see the Phillies “shaking up” their roster? I’ve heard Bohm tossed round as a commerce piece, however aside from him who might you see them shifting?

Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical that the Phillies could make a Castellanos commerce work, as a result of most groups are valuing him at roughly 0

Ben Clemens: like, league common hitter with utterly unplayable protection

Ben Clemens: so both they’re going to eat a lot of the cash, at which level why are we doing this commerce within the first place, or they’re going to ship out a prospect with him, and that feels prefer it wouldn’t occur given the best way Philly has operated lately

Ben Clemens: Bohm is sensible to me as a commerce piece in the event that they’re intent on shaking issues up, however they may additionally simply run issues again. It was a fairly good staff in 2024, you already know?

Bencle Mens: Can an Arenado to the Phillies commerce work?

Ben Clemens: I don’ assume the Cardinals could be concerned with Bohm, as a result of the entire level of shifting on from Arenado could be to take a step again for the following few years. Mayyyyybe you may get the Castellanos contract out the door, plus a prospect or two, for Arenado, however that will simply be window dressing (i.e. you may select between the Cardinals protecting $30 million of Arenado’s deal and buying and selling them Castellanos and the $40 million he’s owed)

Ben Clemens: So I’d say it’s not unattainable however will depend on discovering worth for Bohm elsewhere

Hunter: I’ve heard commerce rumors for the Tigers (Arenado, Bohm), however is there any lifelike commerce that the Tigers might make that will make extra sense than simply signing Bregman or Christian Walker so that they don’t must bat Matt Vierling third anymore?

Ben Clemens: yeah I like Walker there fairly a bit

Ben Clemens: Not so into Bregman, to be sincere, I really feel like his swing and Comerica wouldn’t be buddies

Buster: I wish to do my finest by the Giants, however I don’t have the Dodgers cash and that i don’t have their mind belief. Any approach I can dislodge them from first within the subsequent years?

Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical

Ben Clemens: I hope I’m incorrect, SF is extra enjoyable when the Giants are good

Ben Clemens: we haven’t actually seen a lot of the Posey regime but, I’ll withhold judgment for a yr or so till we see what their MO is, however the Giants have been fairly uninspired lately after whiffing on a number of massive free brokers, and it feels powerful to repair that shortly

New UK fan: How do the market dynamics range between pitching (~everybody can use one other pitcher, however there are lots of obtainable) vs particular positions (possibly only some groups want a catching improve however there are only a few choices obtainable)

Ben Clemens: oh, good query. I believe it makes for a first-one-in-wins mentality within the place participant case, the place there are significant differencdes in what somebody will give you based mostly on if you signal and who’s nonetheless wanting. Pitcher salaries are much more static/fungible, as a result of if the Mets don’t signal you the Yankees would possibly, or whatnot

Ben Clemens: that places extra strain on the brokers of the place gamers whose spots aren’t assured however are probably mnore invaluable. Whereas being an agent for a starter might be rather a lot about calling each staff and displaying that your man is wholesome/working laborious

Hungry man: What’s the most effective vacation dish?

Ben Clemens: I really don’t assume that is all that shut

Ben Clemens: I like a variety of vacation dishes, however I crave stuffing

Ben Clemens: we made some this yr and I devoured it in report time

Ben Clemens: it’s fairly enjoyable to make, additionally

Bencle Mens: Over/beneath Brewers’ NL Central division wins within the subsequent 3 years: 2.5?

Ben Clemens: simple beneath for me

Ben Clemens: not as a result of I believe they’re in a foul spot, however b/c 2.5 out of three is simply too excessive

Ben Clemens: at 2 I’m torn, I believe I’d in all probability nonetheless take the beneath however I’d really feel unhealthy about it

Kip: Is ATL sort of screwed? They’ve at the least three holes to fill (LF/SP/RP) and possibly extra for those who don’t assume Ozzie will bounce again (second basemen age horribly) or if Arcia doesn’t enhance. They’ve cash to spend however it’s not an enormous quantity in the event that they wish to keep away from penalties (round $30 million). Their farm system isn’t significantly deep and lots of of their finest prospects undertaking to be again finish starters or aid pitchers.

Ben Clemens: the Braves had a very ridiculous variety of accidents final yr, together with the reigning MVP and Cy Younger favourite, to not point out a number of different All Stars. BP’s harm tracker has them down for 13 lacking WAR final yr, vs. a league common of round 5

Ben Clemens: so will they be nearly as good as they had been in 2023? in all probability not

Ben Clemens: however will we undertaking them as the most effective staff within the NLE once more? nearly definitely

Ben Clemens: Arcia is unhealthy for a primary division shortstop, and Albies is likely to be extra good than elite now (I’ve really had him in that vary for years, witness his slide down the commerce worth sequence)

Ben Clemens: however they only have a ton of fine gamers nonetheless. I’d count on extra in ’25 out of Riley and Harris, I actually like Schwellenbach and I believe AJSS has some juice

Idiotic Failson: I agreed with you a large number till you thought that stuffing was higher than pecan pie. What a brutal take.

Ben Clemens: pecan pie is my favourite pie

Ben Clemens: I’m only a savory over candy sort of particular person

drhotdog: angels want both a 3B or a 2B. any probability they will poach HSK from san diego?

Ben Clemens: yeah, this feels very affordable to me

Ben Clemens: I believe that Kim’s market goes to go considered one of two methods

Ben Clemens: one is that he picks a staff the place he’s comfy to signal a pillow contract. Possibly the Giants? One thing west coast in all probability

Ben Clemens: Angels aren’t out of the query right here both

Ben Clemens: or: somebody actually desires him and they also provide him a pleasant five-year deal

Ben Clemens: and he simply says eh, pillow contracts are overrated, let’s simply safe the bag now

Ben Clemens: that second choice, I believe a staff doing that will kind of assure signing him, whereas if he’s signing 2/40 with an decide out after the primary yr, a ton of groups would provide him that

Ben Clemens: so if you wish to assure Kim’s providers, you provide him a long-term deal. In the event you’re comfy taking a threat that he’ll signal somehwere else based mostly on match, enter the pillow contract sweepstakes

John: “Any pie is an efficient pie”

Ben Clemens: oh man, has anybody had the frozen pies from Ace {Hardware}?

Ben Clemens: I didn’t know this was a factor after which I picked one up for this Thanksgiving as a result of I used to be doing an Ace run (snow shovel, some random wrench) and remembered that they’ve a freezer close to the checkout

Ben Clemens: I discovered from my neighbor that it is a frequent factor at Ace areas, and the pie was completely superb

Ben Clemens: like, possibly the most effective apple pie I’ve ever had

Lord Thunder: If Eric isn’t round and anyone asks you what Triple-A catcher, Agustin Ramirez or Drake Baldwin, you like. What do you say?

Ben Clemens: I’d in all probability make a Drake pun first

Ben Clemens: however I want Baldwin, I’m a little bit extra keen to consider his batting line given the peripherals and whereas I don’t have a ton of visibility into minor league catcher protection, they appear comparable there

Henry D.: Some stories right now that the NYM are concerned with Walker Buehler. I like playing on him in a vacuum, however are they actually going to hit on WB and Montas in the identical season the best way they did with Sevi and Manaea? Looks as if an excessive amount of threat.

Ben Clemens: I’d really argue that it’s a threat mitigation technique

Ben Clemens: certain, generally you may hit on each signing and issues work out nice, however usually talking, signing extra lottery tickets will increase the possibilities of hitting on at the least one

Ben Clemens: there’s obivously some contract quantity the place it switches to being draw back threat since you’re paying him as if he’s going to be elite

Ben Clemens: however that’s more durable to evaluate, and I don’t assume Buehler is gonna get that quantity

Caught on holidays man: Have you ever ever given a present that you simply’re nonetheless happy with?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna point out a present my spouse gave first, as a result of it was simply that superior: for her mother’s seventieth, she received 70 folks to write down messages and put all of them in a e-book collectively

Ben Clemens: that was an amazing one, I assumed

Ben Clemens: not counting that: I received my spouse a set of knives in 2015 that we nonetheless love right now, they usually’ve been extremely helpful the entire time, so I’ll say that

Plan B: If the Yankees lose out on Soto, how a lot would Bellinger assist them?

Ben Clemens: not a lot, imo

Ben Clemens: I’ll say, I’m decrease on Bellinger than consensus

Ben Clemens: he was in my prime 50 provisionally when it appeared like he would possibly decide out and I received a variety of feedback that I had him too low

Ben Clemens: I believe that loads of folks consider he’s a 20% above common bat who can play a wonderful heart discipline, whereas I believe he’s a mean bat and common outfield defender

Cohen: So if he DOESN’T get Soto after he’s spent a number of years speaking up his spending, is that thought of an actual ding? (Clearly not on his total tenure)

Ben Clemens: If it’s due to a scarcity of a severe provide, sure

Ben Clemens: if it’s as a result of he and the Yankees each provide 13/700 and Soto desires to hang around together with his buddy Aaron, properly, I believe it will depend on how laborious the Mets pitched him

Ben Clemens: however nothing about this pursuit, and his pursuit of free brokers usually, has made me assume that Cohen is unserious about getting the most effective gamers

Visitor: RE: Sasaki to the Dodgers
I nonetheless assume they’ve a shot, however it’s unquestionably tougher to promote him on going there when, in an ideal world, he would seem like the odd man out within the playoff rotation. I’d think about he wouldn’t be in over Snell, Glasnow, Yamamoto, or Ohtani. In order that brings me to my level, do you consider the Snell signing means they nonetheless very a lot consider they’ll get him? Or they didn’t belive they had been going to get him within the first place?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, that’s honest. I believe it’s extra the second, that they weren’t certain if they might get him – how might they be? And so they additionally weren’t certain if he’d be an influence arm in 2025. so that they’re simply attempting to win a bunch now, as a result of that appears good

Ben Clemens: take the deal in entrance of you and take care of tomorrow tomorrow, that kidn of factor

Ben Clemens: hoenstly I believe the Dodgers are so well-run that it’s nearly un-fun

Ben Clemens: they make the selections I might make on a strategic entrance loads of the time, and once they do one thing I wouldn’t have accomplished, I continuously discover that I preferred their alternative after the actual fact

Choose and Soto: If Soto finally ends up staying partially as a result of he likes taking part in with that massive man, on prime of Choose simply casually throwing up a second 11fWAR season, how not horrible is that Choose contract?

Ben Clemens: yeah the Choose deal is wanting like fairly a discount up to now, amazingly sufficient

Ben Clemens: he’s already cranked out 16 WAR since signing it, captured an MVP, dragged the staff to an ALE win

Bencle Mens: How unhealthy are the Yankees’ vibes going to be when Soto indicators with the Mets or Pink Sox?

Kave Dingman: Dodgers and escrow – I had not heard about this earlier than. I do know that the Dodgers get hit with an-NPV like hit to their luxurious cap quantity. For Ohtani, is the escrow the identical as that roughly $46 million cap hit?

Ben Clemens: yeah kind of. Right here’s a pleasant little Gemini abstract, shout out to Google

Ben Clemens:

• hen to put aside: Groups should begin allocating the deferred cash by the second July 1 after the season it was owed. For instance, if a participant is deferring $68 million in 2024, the staff should totally fund the current worth of that cash by July 2026. 
• Tips on how to put aside: Groups can allocate the cash in money, shares, or “unencumbered property”. The league and union may agree on an alternate type. 
• Who holds the cash: The cash is held on behalf of the participant and can’t be accessed. 
• Curiosity: The staff can earn curiosity on the cash, which they will spend.

John: With the caveat that no person actually is aware of but, are you able to say  which is extra suspect in pitcher accidents: elevated velocity or emphasis on spin charges?

Ben Clemens: i believe it’s sort of a hybrid of those – it’s the speed on the flexible pitches

Ben Clemens: 91 mph sliders are laborious on the arm on a number of fronts

angels: You assume the angels will go after any extra starters? Primarily based on Perry’s feedback it appears like Anderson or Detmers might be dealt they usually’ll herald one other arm

Ben Clemens: I do – possibly somebody within the Pivetta/Sevy tier?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume Anderson has a lot of a commerce market. not that his contract is underwater, simply that he’s extra of a ‘commerce this man for a prospect on the deadline when a staff has an harm drawback’ choice as a substitute of a ‘swap him for speedy main league assist in January’ choice

Ben Clemens: Detmers might get them one thing useful straight away, so in the event that they wish to transfer him, they’d discover takers

Appa Yip Yip: Or possibly it’s as a result of Soto desires to spend time together with his even higher buddy Vlad did u consider that Ben??

Ben Clemens: dwelling in Toronto does sound fairly n ice

Ben Clemens: I’d positively have an interest. I’d even settle for lower than Soto

Maddie: Is Thairo Estrada simply accomplished? Feels just like the Giants gave up on him early.

Ben Clemens: I’m unsure he’s accomplished, however: I’ve been a vendor for years, I simply don’t fairly see how he can ship above common worth with out one thing vital altering

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume his protection is nearly as good because it was graded in 2023, his offense is definitely at the least a little bit beneath common, I’ve him as a second division common or good utility man

Ben Clemens: possibly the Giants gave up on that a little bit early however I don’t assume he’ll receives a commission greater than his arb award would have been, and he definitely didn’t really feel like a long run answer to me, so I see why they moved on

Eric: Do you purchase the Boras narrative that Chicago winds suppressed Bellinger final yr and he could be a purchase low if he was dealt someplace?

Ben Clemens: one one who in all probability agrees with me: Cody Bellinger, who selected to stay on the Cubs as a substitute of testing free company

Badeball: Is plossible a mixture of doable and believable? If that’s the case, I prefer it

Ben Clemens: it wasn’t imagined to be however now I’m with you

Idiotic Failson: Is there a negotiating universe the place Cohen simply tells Boras ‘we’ll give Soto $600mm or match regardless of the highest provide is’? It looks like that’s an Uncle Steve sort of transfer.

Ben Clemens: I believe that’s pretty doubtless, the truth is

Ben Clemens: that’s how the Ohtani and Choose negotiations apparently went down; the Giants provided these guys the precise offers they acquired elsewhere

Henry Dodger: There’s a story in NYC that claims that Luisangel Acuna was “bored” within the minors and that’s why he didn’t carry out higher. I discover it very troublesome to consider. You?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I don’t purchase it

Ben Clemens: or properly, if that’s the case, we’ve a very totally different drawback

Ben Clemens: Occam’s razor right here, for me, although

Alf: You’re GM Ben Clemens of the Yankees/Pink Sox/Dodgers/Blue Jays/ different staff severe about Soto. At what monetary level do you simply say it’s an excessive amount of cash and let him go someplace else?

Ben Clemens: In all probability relies upon extra on possession, to be sincere, and the way these groups assemble budgets

Ben Clemens: I believe that round 13/700 I’d be telling my proprietor that this deal doesn’t make monetary sense, however I determine if I’m a GM I’m going to be continuously asking the proprietor to spend extra and compete extra continuously, so this would appear like a great time to push that message

Wyatt: Am I loopy to have Wyatt Langford as a prime ten place participant in fantasy subsequent yr?

Ben Clemens: Prime ten appears a little bit aggressive

Ben Clemens: however larger than he completed this yr by a great bit, for certain

Lord Thunder: Out of the Jays’ return for Kikuchi — Wagner, Loperfido, and Bloss — who will produce essentially the most worth within the close to future … and past?

Ben Clemens: at this level I suppose Wagner is wanting fairly good. However gimme Bloss, I talked myself into him when he began hopping ranges in Houston final yr

Ben Clemens: the Wagner throw-in was an amazing transfer by Toronto

Matt: Relating to “we’ll match regardless of the highest provide is”, do groups really know what the best affords are? Looks as if they’re all left at midnight to varied levels and solely Soto’s staff is aware of. I suppose Soto’s staff might inform you what their highest provide is, however would you consider them? Or are FA negotiations pretty clear?

Ben Clemens: In truth, I’m unsure

Ben Clemens: My guess is that Boras and most brokers are pretty truthful about this, although

Ben Clemens: It’s a repeated sport, and for those who get caught mendacity as soon as, the prices in future rounds of negotiation are huoge

Ben Clemens: profit-maximizing habits in a one-round negotiation is likely to be to lie, however belief feels essential to Boras’s potential to do his job properly

SPArn: What do you imply that Nick Castellanos isn’t a great defender?! His fielding percentages are unbelievable!

Ben Clemens: I’ve really by no means dedicated an error in skilled baseball

Ben Clemens: for what it’s value

Dan: I recall a dialogue of a aid pitcher who was out of choices and this was placed on waivers to let the staff name up a brisker arm. The participant was claimed by a second staff who pitcher him for a number of weeks earlier than they did the identical factor and a 3rd staff claimed him. It was talked about the participant was accruing service time however does a participant at this stage ever find yourself signing a free agent deal or do they have a tendency to retire/signal a minor league do as soon as they’re now not eligible for this sort of roster shuffling?

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, the fellows on this scenario aren’t reaping free company wealth

Ben Clemens: that mentioned, the service time issues for issues like pensions and arbitration

Ben Clemens: additionally, they’re getting paid a significant league wage whereas they accrue service time, which isn’t any joke

Ben Clemens: the Triple-A minimal this yr was 35,800. MLB minimal was 740k

Wyatt: What sort of cash adjustments fingers of Arenado is traded? Does the Rockies cash observe him?

Ben Clemens: oh hey I simply observed that Arenado had 50 million deferred in his deal

Ben Clemens: look, everyone seems to be the Dodgers now

Ben Clemens: the Rockies cash would observe him, although. the Rockies are paying $4 million of his wage annually, they usually’d simply proceed to try this

Kave Dingman: Dwelling in Toronto from April 1st through October thirty first looks like an excellent plan. And spend the winter someplace a lot hotter.

Ben Clemens: I’m not a winter particular person, and I believe it’s a great guess that Juan Soto isn’t both

Ben Clemens: Miami offseason residence? simple

joe: Ought to MLB change the best way the offseason works? choose up steam sooner? Feels just like the draft lottery ought to have occurred already.

Ben Clemens: I believe it’s arrange moderately properly, however I do assume there ought to be a transaction freeze for many of November in order that issues actually begin cooking across the winter conferences

Oneear: Yainer Diaz or Patrick Bailey?

Ben Clemens: for fantasy? Diaz. For actual life? Bailey

Ben Clemens: I’m only a massive sucker for catcher protection, and Bailey is the most effective there’s there

Henry Dodger: Did the LAD make sufficient cash on promoting and advertising and marketing offers with Japanese firms that they’re basically not paying Ohtani’s ~$45M out of the same old price range?

Michael G: If Soto indicators with the Pink Sox, Yankees signal Walker & Bregman, Jays signal Santander & Manaea. What’s your rating of the AL East groups?

Ben Clemens: I believe I’d go Yankees/Sox/Jays, however with error bars larger than the variations between groups

Drew: Are there sufficient upgrades on the commerce and free agent markets to make the Nationals a contender in 2025?

Ben Clemens: I imply, certain

Ben Clemens: give them Soto, Bregman, Burnes, possibly Teo and two different starters, bam

Ben Clemens: realistically no, although?

Visitor: do u assume renting just about simply at all times smarter than homeownership rn

Ben Clemens: Context-dependent

Ben Clemens: in massive cities, nearly definitely sure, although

Ben Clemens: rental yield is so low in SF, it will be fairly costly to personal my place as a substitute of renting it

Dan: Is Pecan Pie pronounced pecan or pecan?

Ben Clemens: I’m a ‘peh-con’ man

Ben Clemens: I believe it is a regional deal, although I’m not 100% certain

J: Besides you will be compelled out of your condominium by lease will increase yearly in case your condominium isn’t lease stabilized (supply: dwell in NYC)

Ben Clemens: I imply, certain. however housing in NYC is pretty fungible, you may lease one other place. that mentioned, in my expertise an enormous quantity of NYC housing is lease managed, or at the least a number of of the locations I lived there have been, even in newer buildings

Ben Clemens: rental yields in NY are within the 2-3% vary from what I’ve seen, that’s wild

Visitor: I do know it’s principally simply noise, however has anybody accomplished analysis into participant success in even or odd years? Matt Olson’s yearly wRC+ graph appears to be like just like the Mammoth Mountain emblem.

Ben Clemens: this appears like a job for Dan, however I haven’t seen any impact and doubt it’s actual

J: Housing shouldn’t be fungible when you have a household, man. You possibly can’t transfer your youngsters yearly.

Ben Clemens: properly certain, however rental will increase of say 10% a yr usually are not significantly frequent both, and also you is likely to be paying double to have a mortgage as a substitute of lease for a similar place. Clearly there are a ton of various elements, and a baseball author isn’t going to unravel the issue in his chat, however from a value effectiveness standpoint, I’ve been comfortable renting in excessive price of dwelling cities

Bob Loblaw, Esq.: Josh Allen for Shohei Ohtani who says no?

Ben Clemens: throwing a landing go to your self does really feel like an Ohtani-ish feat

Didace: Lease or purchase is a math drawback. Albeit with a variety of variables which might be both unknown or very unsure.

Henry Dodger: Will Soto’s contract be insured? Is it doable to insure a contract like that?

Ben Clemens: in all probability for harm and never for the rest

Badeball: How a lot would a staff pay a man who might treatment any harm immediately? Is that value $20 million  a yr? Asking for a buddy

Ben Clemens: simply, proper?

Ben Clemens: the Dodgers would pay that for certain

Dan: If the staff is depositing the current worth and they’re allowed to spend the curiosity then as soon as the longer term turns into the current they are going to be brief by the distinction between the unique current worth and the paper worth.

Ben Clemens: I don’t know the specifics of teh CBA, however I’d guess that it must be trued as much as current worth from time to time

Ben Clemens: and you could spend the distinction

Ben Clemens: that’s how I’d do it, at the least

Ben Clemens: alright, this was a enjoyable chat and it ran a little bit longer than I anticipated

Ben Clemens: who knew everybody wnated to listen to my housing sizzling takes?

Ben Clemens: that mentioned, maintain your eyes peeled for one more article on classes I discovered in monetary markets and the way they apply to baseball

Ben Clemens: ETA tomorrow, I believe

Ben Clemens: and have a beautiful week, everybody

Tyguy: On the housing entrance: I purchased in 2021 at ~3% curiosity and would love to maneuver, however really feel golden handcuffed to my present low mortgage fee. Isn’t there some monetary instrument that will permit somebody to tackle my EV+ low curiosity mortgage and let me recoup a few of the prices of what could be a better lease / mortgage fee?

Ben Clemens: ooh bonus final one

Ben Clemens: some scandinavian nation has transferable mortgages

SPArn: Shoutout to Edwin Burton if that’s the case

Ben Clemens: i took his class!

Ben Clemens: cya later, everybody