Jack Flaherty pitching for the Detroit Tigers, CC’ed by Liscense 2.0
In 2024, a number of former All-Star pitchers have had rebound years, however maybe probably the most sudden comeback has been from Jack Flaherty. After his debut in 2017, Flaherty rapidly turned a strong starter for the Cardinals. His breakout yr got here in 2019, the place he posted an unimaginable 0.91 ERA within the second half of the season, completed 4th within the NL Cy Younger voting, and led the Cardinals to an NLCS look. Nonetheless, the next years had been plagued with struggles and accidents. In 2021, Flaherty missed important time because of an indirect pressure and a shoulder pressure, with the latter lingering into 2022. In 2023, he was traded to the Baltimore Orioles, however his efficiency was inconsistent. Regardless of this, it was his healthiest season since 2020, as he pitched 144.1 innings, almost matching his complete innings pitched from 2020-2022 (162.1). In 2024, Flaherty signed a one-year contract with the Detroit Tigers, revitalizing his profession. Let’s discover how he managed to show issues round.
Flaherty’s Stats (Via 6/21): 95.0 IP, 16 GS, 3.09 pCRA, 32.4% Ok%, 4.3% BB%, 7.8% Barrel%, 44.1% GB%, 34.2% CSW%, 15.7% SwStr%, 33.4% Whiff%.
This season, Flaherty has posted career-best ends in a number of statistics. Excluding the 2020 season, he’s posted a career-high strikeout fee (94th percentile), stroll fee (ninety fifth percentile), chase fee (78th percentile), and whiff fee (94th percentile). His enchancment in stroll fee is especially notable, as he had been above 10% the final two seasons, along with his earlier profession finest coming in 2019 at 7.1%.
Breaking Down the Pitches
Flaherty’s greatest enchancment has been in his command, significantly of his fastball and slider. From a motion perspective, the induced vertical break has elevated from 13.4 inches in 2023 to fifteen.3 inches in 2024 (which is extra common than good, however an enchancment nonetheless). I feel that is both associated to his slight improve in launch top (5.4 ft in 2023 to five.5 ft in 2024) or his enchancment in spin effectivity (the share of spin fee that impacts motion) from 72% in 2023 to 80% in 2024. Final season, I feel Flaherty struggled with uncompetitive misses on the pitch, evidenced by a couple of stats. First, he threw the pitch within the strike zone solely 54.0% of the time, barely under the league common of 55.8%. Nonetheless, in 2024, Flaherty elevated this pitch’s zone fee to 60.8%. Secondly, he’s decreased the share of pitches thrown within the “waste” zone (there isn’t a concrete definition for this, however simply consider a pitch so uncompetitive that batters is not going to transfer the bat off their shoulder) from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024, higher than the league common of 5.2%. Lastly, the stroll fee on the pitch has improved from 12.8% in 2023 to five.3% this season. Attributable to Flaherty zoning the pitch extra, the swing fee on the pitch has elevated from 41.6% in 2023 to 46.6% in 2024, and batters are whiffing at a better fee than they did final season (20.8% Whiff% in 2023 vs 25.8% Whiff% in 2024).
Flaherty’s slider has a really comparable motion profile to final season, however as seen by these warmth maps, he’s finding the pitch barely decrease than he did final season. it from a numbers perspective, the share of sliders thrown within the coronary heart of the plate has decreased from 25.0% final season to 16.7% this season. Conversely, the quantity of pitches thrown within the shadow zone (the most effective place to get known as strikes and whiffs) has elevated from 43.1% to 51.1%. Regardless of the distinction being a matter of inches, this adjustment has paid main dividends: The pitch has a 31.3% Utilization%, 3.47 pCRA, 31.0% Ok%, 5.4% BB%, 8.5% Barrel%, 40.2% GB%, 34.1% CSW%, 20.3% SwStr%, 39.1% Whiff%, all of that are above common. Moreover, he’s trusting the pitch extra as a put-away pitch, evidenced by his elevated utilization in two-strike conditions from 24.7% in 2023 to 32.4% in 2024.
2023 Slider Location
2024 Slider Location
Flaherty additionally throws a sweeping curveball with 14.1 inches of glove-side motion, which Baseball Savant says is 21% above common. Final season, it was Flaherty’s finest pitch, posting a 19.4% utilization%, 2.78 pCRA, 33.6% Ok% 7.2% BB%, 5.6% Barrel%, 33.4% CSW%, 18.9% SwStr%, and 40.2% Whiff%. All of those numbers had been excellent, however the pitch has taken one other step ahead this yr: 18.7% utilization fee, 0.54 pCRA, 45.2% Ok%, 0.0% BB%, 0.0% Barrel%, 55.9% GB%, 38.1% CSW%, 21.3% SwStr%, and a 44.5% Whiff%. Whereas I can’t pinpoint a cause for this enchancment from a stuff or location standpoint, I feel the curveball is enjoying off of the fastball higher.
Final season, Flaherty used a cutter 9.1% of the time primarily as a weapon in opposition to right-handed batters. The pitch had above-average glove aspect motion (84% greater than common), however the outcomes weren’t good: 5.63 pCRA, 17.6% Ok%, 7.8% BB%, 11.4% Barrel%, 28.0% CSW%, 11.7% SwStr%, 26.4% Whiff%. If pitchers are taught to throw their finest pitch typically, the inverse of that’s to throw your worst pitch much less. Flaherty has adopted this logic, which has improved his outcomes.
As of this writing, the Tigers are 5 video games out of the AL Central lead and 6 video games again within the wild-card race. Whereas the crew has improved offensively, their finest guess is to concentrate on 2025. Flaherty, a possible rental, might be priceless to groups in want of beginning pitching for a playoff push. At solely 28 years outdated, a powerful second half and playoff run may set him up for a major payday this offseason. As soon as thought of the most effective up-and-coming pitchers, Jack Flaherty is again on observe and can be a formidable opponent in a playoff sport.
Stats through Baseball Savant, Alex Chamberlain Pitch Leaderboard
