For the final six offseasons, I’ve spent (too) a lot of my time compiling my Offseason Matrices Google doc, a undertaking that Davy Andrews so kindly described as “a piece of absolute insanity.”
The doc has developed massively since its first iteration within the 2018-19 offseason, with extra tabs, higher formatting and color-coding, linking to sources, and plenty of extra enhancements to make it extra person pleasant and complete. Now, on this weekly article, I’ll be working down the most recent updates, speaking by how the most recent signings and trades have had downstream results on the group that truly acquired the participant, in addition to others who didn’t. The purpose right here isn’t to rehash each transfer that occurs; that’s what the preliminary FanGraphs protection was for! Reasonably, my goal is so as to add some further context and feedback and summarize how the panorama of the offseason has modified with the strikes. In any case, that’s what all of the color-coding on the Matrix is for.
Largest Rumors of the Week
• Juan Soto seems to be getting nearer to a choice, with at most 5 groups nonetheless within the (identified) working: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Purple Sox, and Blue Jays. Thriller groups are at all times doable, I suppose, however now that the bidding has reportedly hit $600 million, I extremely doubt it. Soto has begun to remove groups, although we’re unsure which groups are out and what number of stay. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN, we’re anticipated to know Soto’s vacation spot by the start of the Winter Conferences on Monday on the newest.
• The Yankees seem like making ready for all times after Soto, although they definitely hope it received’t come to that. They reportedly have met with free agent beginning pitchers Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, and will push arduous to signal infielder Willy Adames if Soto leaves. On the commerce facet of issues, they’ve confirmed curiosity in Cubs outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger to exchange Soto as a lefty bat in the course of the lineup. Bellinger may additionally fill their opening at first base and may be an possibility even when Soto returns. Talking of first base choices, earlier within the offseason, the Yankees checked in on Pete Alonso and had been one of many groups to specific curiosity in Christian Walker.
• Dealer Jerry is at it once more, with Adam Jude of the Seattle Occasions reporting that the Mariners have had preliminary discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and the Cubs about Nico Hoerner. Groups could have conversations with dozens of free brokers and about dozens of commerce targets, so don’t draw any conclusions about these particular gamers simply but. Nevertheless, these two nuggets sign that Jerry Dipoto is seeking to improve at third base and second base, maybe aggressively. Additionally, large ups to Dave Dombrowski for reportedly asking for Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in change for Bohm.
• Korean second baseman Hye-seong Kim has formally been posted for MLB golf equipment, and he now has till 5 p.m. EST on January 3 to succeed in a deal. He’s was already linked to the Mariners pre-posting, and different groups ought to absolutely observe now that he’s formally accessible. Eric Longenhagen has him graded as a 40 FV participant who could not have a ton of upside however ought to signify a comparatively low-cost possibility. Ha-Seong Kim (no relation, although they did play collectively in Korea) signed for 4 years and $28 million when he got here stateside earlier than the 2021 season, and Hye-seong ought to find yourself round there.
A’s Signal Luis Severino for Three Years, $67 Million
Impact on the A’s
Nicely people, we’ve obtained our first true “he signed WHERE???” of the offseason. The A’s are exhibiting they’re no less than somewhat-committed to fielding a extra aggressive group in 2025. Plus, $67 million for Severino can be a powerful indication that it’d take one thing of a premium to lure gamers to a minor-league ballpark for any size of time, particularly a participant like Severino. This’ll virtually definitely be the most important deal the A’s signal this offseason, however for the primary time in just a few years, you don’t should squint too arduous to see the makings of an honest group.
Impact on Different Groups
I’m unsure what number of different suitors Severino had, nor do I understand how a lot of them had the A’s on their radar as probably vying for him alongside them. Regardless of the case could also be, such groups are going to show their consideration to comparable pitchers, maybe others with qualifying gives connected, similar to Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea, or an unencumbered pitcher like Nathan Eovaldi.
Impact on Comparable Gamers
These comparable guys I simply talked about are most likely doing cartwheels after studying Severino signed for $23 million a yr. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN had the very best contract prediction (on the Whole Spending Projection tab) for Severino of those I used to be in a position to combination, and he was low by $8.5 million. That doesn’t essentially imply that Pivetta, Manaea, and Eovaldi will signal for a lot of thousands and thousands greater than anticipated, however one fewer pitcher on the board — signed by an surprising group, no much less — ought to improve demand for these three.
Mets Signal Frankie Montas for Two Years, $34 Million
Impact on the Mets
This doesn’t shut off the Mets from including to their rotation; they’ve nonetheless obtained no less than two rotation spots to fill, with Kodai Senga becoming a member of Montas and sure David Peterson as locks for the beginning 5. This transfer also needs to solidify José Buttó as a reliever, even when he’s stretched out throughout spring coaching.
Impact on Different Groups
May this get rivals calling about Paul Blackburn? We all know the Mets want as many starters as they will get, however Blackburn has fallen additional down the depth chart with the Montas addition, and his occurring the IL for leaking spinal fluid meant the Mets couldn’t consider him a lot after buying him from the A’s on the commerce deadline.
Impact on Comparable Gamers
Montas’ snagging $34 million over two years (with an choose out!) appeared to assist out Matthew Boyd (extra on him later), and that $17 million common annual worth should be excellent news for equally ranked gamers like Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, and Michael Lorenzen. I feel Montas will outdo all of these guys in AAV, but it surely wouldn’t shock me to see most of them beat their median contract prediction, which you could find on the Whole Spending Projection tab.
Cubs Signal Matthew Boyd for Two Years, $14.5 Million
Impact on the Cubs
Likelier than not, the Boyd addition will finish the Cubs’ pursuit of beginning pitching, no less than with regards to including different mid-tier arms. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Boyd ought to all be assured beginning jobs, and I feel the Cubs would solely bump Javier Assad in the event that they had been in a position to land a real influence starter like Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, or Jack Flaherty.
Impact on Different Groups
Like Blackburn with the Mets, Assad may find yourself as a commerce goal for groups in want of beginning pitching depth, although I’m unsure how prepared the Cubs can be to half with him. As I stated, I feel Assad has a leg up on the competitors for the fifth starter spot. Nevertheless, maybe the Cubs can be extra more likely to commerce him if he had been a part of a deal to land a greater starter, such because the aforementioned Crochet. Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski at the moment are on the skin trying in for rotation spots. Regardless of Chicago’s sturdy depth, as a rule, I typically don’t mark groups’ columns on the FA Matrix with maroon cells (denoting crammed positions) for pitchers, since you may by no means have too many.
Impact on Comparable Gamers
Mid-rotation arms are getting paid this winter!
Purple Sox Signal Aroldis Chapman for One Yr, $10.75 Million
Impact on the Purple Sox
The Purple Sox entered the offseason with various work to do of their bullpen. That stated, Boston needs to be fairly snug with its lefties now that Chapman and Justin Wilson are within the fold. Brennan Bernardino and Cam Booser are additionally on the 40-man.
Impact on Different Groups
We don’t know of every other groups who had been excited about Chapman, however with clearly the second-best lefty reliever off the board, there’s now an enormous chasm between large fish Tanner Scott and the remainder of the lefties for groups trying so as to add a southpaw. Apart from Scott, there’s additionally Scott Alexander, Ryan Yarbrough, Danny Coulombe, Drew Smyly, Andrew Chafin, Jalen Beeks, and Hoby Milner, amongst others. Loads of fascinating names there, however solely Chapman has the high-octane gasoline that Scott additionally possesses.
Impact on Comparable Gamers
That $10.75 million is a wholesome contract for Chapman, and it ought to set goal for veteran high-leverage arms outdoors of the large 4 of Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Clay Holmes, and Carlos Estévez. Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates, and David Robertson ought to all be aiming for no less than $10 million.
Rangers Signal Kyle Higashioka for Two Years, $12.5 Million
Impact on the Rangers
The Heim-Higashioka timeshare takes the Rangers out of the catcher marketplace for the remainder of the offseason. (Their column now has maroon cells for all catchers who ought to get MLB offers.) It additionally offers them an apparent commerce chip in Sam Huff, who’s hit properly in restricted MLB alternatives for the previous 4 years, however has by no means been extremely regarded behind the dish.
Impact on Different Groups
Huff’s entry onto the commerce block considerably offsets the lack for different groups to signal Higashioka, although once more, Huff most likely isn’t a catcher and definitely doesn’t have the status Higgy has again there. The catcher market is the one place participant group that’s moved shortly in free company; Higashioka, Jacob Stallings, Austin Hedges, Danny Jansen, and Travis d’Arnaud at the moment are all off the board. Carson Kelly, Yasmani Grandal, Gary Sánchez, Elias Díaz, and James McCann are one of the best choices left.
Impact on Comparable Gamers
Of these greatest choices I simply talked about, Kelly is the one possibility left who strikes me as more likely to signal a multi-year deal. Higashioka primarily matched his median contract prediction of two years and $14 million, signing for simply $500,000 much less. That’s a useful knowledge level for Kelly, whose median prediction is 2 years at $14 million.
Rays Signal Danny Jansen for One Yr, $8.5 Million
Impact on the Rays
Together with the Rangers, the Rays now have their catcher timeshare settled for 2025, with the lefty-hitting Ben Rortvedt and lefty-mashing Jansen forming a pure platoon. For $8.5 million, Jansen may get loads of run in opposition to righties, too, however Rortvedt ought to play greater than a typical backup even when he’s relegated to that position. The Rays already misplaced René Pinto off waivers to the Orioles, so Logan Driscoll will probably be down in Triple-A as the highest depth possibility.
Impact on Different Groups
If you need a catcher, choices are dwindling shortly. If not one of the backstops I discussed within the Higashioka part sound notably attractive, possibly name the Pirates and ask about Jason Delay or Henry Davis, or speak to the Phillies about Rafael Marchán or Garrett Stubbs.
Impact on Comparable Gamers
Jansen’s contract ended up being worse than anticipated; his median contract prediction was two years and $18 million, so he didn’t even match the AAV. This would possibly learn as unhealthy information for Kelly, however I feel Kelly is nearer to Higashioka than he’s to Jansen. Kelly has a powerful defensive status and can be coming off a greater season, whereas Jansen has a regarding harm historical past and had a tough 2023 marketing campaign.
