Bryan De La Cruz Suffers From a Lack of Contact(s)

Proposition No. 1: Figuring out the neatest entrance workplace in baseball can be a troublesome process even when it weren’t such a loaded query to start out. How do you weight scouting versus growth? How do you issue the affect of possession, for good or in poor health? Or accidents, or luck, or different parts of pressure majeure?

So I’ll state my premise this fashion: The Braves appear to be a competently run group. They’ve made the playoffs seven years operating — six of these by profitable the NL East — and are arrange properly to proceed contending sooner or later. They’ve had inner developmental successes, savvy commerce wins, and the occasional opportunistic buy-low transfer for a veteran free agent. Are they the best-run workforce within the league? I don’t know, however I’d hear out an argument to that impact.

Certainly they wouldn’t exit of their method to purchase a participant coming off a traditionally dangerous season.

Proposition No. 2: Baseball groups are fairly good at figuring out dangerous gamers as of late. The theoretical substitute degree is as theoretical because it’s ever been; anybody who spends lengthy durations of time submerged under that line tends to get bounced from the lineup earlier than he can do an excessive amount of injury. Previously decade, you’ll discover a full season of -1.0 WAR or worse roughly as soon as in each 100 particular person participant campaigns. That’s 14 instances in 1,375 certified place participant seasons since 2015, and simply 4 instances in 658 particular person participant seasons of 600 or extra plate appearances.

Normally, a participant that dangerous earns enjoying time via previous efficiency. Or, extra precisely, although path dependence based mostly on an enormous contract earned via previous efficiency. Albert Pujols, Victor Martinez, Chris Davis, and Pablo Sandoval have all damaged via this statistical thermocline. For a participant in his prime to get 600 plate appearances whereas stinking out the joint to this extent… properly, it’s uncommon.

However Bryan De La Cruz simply did it. He hit .233/.271/.384 in 622 plate appearances for the Marlins and Pirates final season. That 77 wRC+, together with below-average nook outfield protection, was ok to saddle him with a millstone WAR determine of minus-1.2.

Proposition No. 3: The Atlanta Braves simply signed Bryan De La Cruz.

Why would they do such a factor? It is not sensible!

I’ll caveat this proper off the highest: I do know that De La Cruz is on a non-guaranteed break up contract, which implies that he’d receives a commission a distinct quantity based mostly on whether or not he’s within the main leagues or the minors. (Presumably, De La Cruz’s donation to the Atlanta Braves Basis can be adjusted accordingly.) And since he has two choice years left, De La Cruz might certainly get demoted.

However he at present has the within observe on not less than a platoon position out of spring coaching, as a result of — imagine it or not — “traditionally dangerous” just isn’t essentially a downgrade on what the Braves have within the outfield in the intervening time.

It feels ridiculous to say that, given the splashy names on the high of Atlanta’s outfield depth chart. Michael Harris II is a must-start, however after that it will get just a little darkish. Ronald Acuña Jr. is without doubt one of the finest gamers within the league when wholesome, however he in all probability gained’t be again from his torn ACL by Opening Day, so there will probably be not less than a short lived emptiness in proper area. And left fielder Jarred Kelenic didn’t react as properly to his change of surroundings because the Braves would’ve hoped. I might cite Kelenic’s unimpressive 86 wRC+ over a full season, however as a substitute I believe it’d be extra illustrative to indicate you what number of of Kelenic’s plate appearances got here in opposition to left-handed pitchers on a month-by-month foundation. For comparability, I’ve added the league-wide splits each for left-handed hitters and for all hitters. Should you had been graphing Atlanta’s confidence in Kelenic’s capability to play on a regular basis, you could possibly give you worse proxies.

Having traded away Jorge Soler, lower unfastened Ramón Laureano and Adam Duvall, and having hidden Marcell Ozuna’s glove from him, the Braves are surprisingly skinny within the outfield. Other than the gamers I’ve already talked about, there are three present members of the Braves’ 40-man roster with main league outfield expertise: Austin Riley (has higher issues to do), Luke Williams (profession 59 wRC+), and Eli White (additionally a profession 59 wRC+).

Sooner or later, you simply want a man to go stand out in proper area. I haven’t measured De La Cruz’s temperature lately, however I’m assured that he counts as a heat physique. So does Conner Capel, whom Atlanta signed to a minor league deal over the weekend.

Capel is a profession minor league veteran. (Is 59 massive league video games over three seasons at age 27 sufficient to qualify him for Quad-A standing? If that’s the case, I apologize; I don’t wish to be unkind.) However De La Cruz was considered as a promising expertise not that way back, and has been an on a regular basis participant for two-plus years prior to now. He introduced again two prospects on the commerce deadline simply 5 months in the past. The Braves will be apt to screw round with lottery tickets with their fourth and fifth outfield spots — particularly early within the season. God is aware of I fell for the Sam Hilliard okey-doke two years in the past.

Is that each one that is? Someplace between a placeholder and this yr’s Sam Hilliard? Or can he do greater than make up the numbers?

Nicely, De La Cruz hasn’t been an above-average hitter, in keeping with wRC+, since his rookie half-season in 2021. As of proper now, he walks sparingly, strikes out as a lot as Mickey Moniak, and doesn’t hit the ball significantly arduous. Regardless of common dash velocity, he has rock-bottom vary within the outfield, although his arm is without doubt one of the few attributes that doesn’t appear to have atrophied.

De La Cruz does hit lefties higher than righties, and whereas he’s not precisely Wily Mo Peña in “MVP Baseball 2005,” his 99 wRC+ in opposition to left-handed pitching final yr was fairly a bitter than Kelenic’s 41. Put the 2 collectively and also you’ll have one barely below-average hitter in left area.

Again in 2022, De La Cruz — whereas performing unremarkably on the plate basically — did make a whole lot of arduous contact. However over the previous three seasons, he’s gone from the 96th percentile in xBA to thirty sixth, and from the 86th percentile in HardHit% to 58th. His total numbers in opposition to fastballs and offspeed pitches have stayed in the identical common ballpark, however he appears to have simply misplaced the power to sq. up breaking stuff.

There are few prospect profiles as contact-averse as “toolsy Marlins outfielder,” however even in that context, that is fairly surprising. Whereas he’s backed up when it comes to high quality of contact, he’s additionally swinging extra — 49.2% in 2022, 53.4% in 2024 — whereas seeing extra strikes — 45.6% in-zone charge in 2022, 48.7% in 2024. Pitchers aren’t afraid of him, in order that they see no cause to keep away from the zone. Subsequent factor you already know, De La Cruz — who was hardly a Joey Votto tribute act to start with — is within the backside 10 in stroll charge amongst all certified hitters.

That’s survivable for a hitter with 20-homer energy at an up-the-middle place (Trea Turner, Ezequiel Tovar, Jackson Merrill) or for Luis Arraez, who has outlier bat-to-ball abilities. Much less so for a participant like De La Cruz.

So one in all two issues is going on right here. First: De La Cruz has simply misplaced it. His bat’s slowed down, his pitch recognition, such because it was, is in the bathroom, and there’s no getting back from this. The Braves will discover this out rapidly, and De La Cruz will probably be in Gwinnett — or worse, on the White Sox — by Memorial Day. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Or — and listen to me out right here — we might be taught from one other member of the Minus-1.0 WAR Membership. Enrique Hernández hit .237/.289/.357 and dropped all the best way to negative-1.1 WAR in 2023. He was even worse within the first half of 2024. Then he acquired glasses someday across the All-Star break and all the pieces was fastened.

Hernández hit .274/.307/.458, a 112 wRC+, within the second half, and lower his strikeout charge by greater than 15%. By October, he was an everyday starter for the Dodgers, and hit .294 with two dwelling runs in 14 playoff video games, en path to a second ring.

In different phrases, De La Cruz ought to go to the optometrist earlier than all of us write him off for good.