The Twins have listened to commerce gives on right-hander Pablo López, studies Jeff Passan of ESPN. That doesn’t essentially imply the Twins are more likely to transfer him, but it surely suggests it’s not less than potential.
As not too long ago as the center of November, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey downplayed the concept of the Twins subtracting a notable participant from their roster through a blockbuster commerce. He recognized López, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton as “key” items of the roster that have been unlikely to maneuver. “Everyone seems to be at all times going to ask while you’re a crew within the payroll bracket that we’re,” Falvey mentioned. “I really feel actually assured these guys are going to be a part of the power for us to do what we wish on the sphere. They’re going to gasoline us hopefully to among the success we need to have. … I really feel actually good about these gamers.”
Regardless of that public framing, it’s comprehensible why the entrance workplace may not less than think about different potentialities. It’s been reported that the Twins are possible going to have a payroll round $130MM subsequent 12 months, the identical as that they had in 2024. RosterResource at present initiatives them for $142MM in 2025, suggesting they might want to seek out some cuts.
Guys like Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez have been floated as potential commerce candidates who may assist the membership get all the way down to their most popular stage, although neither is more likely to have huge commerce worth. Paddack goes to make $7.5MM subsequent 12 months, the ultimate 12 months on his deal, however he hasn’t been at his sharpest shortly. He had a robust 3.33 earned run common in his 2019 rookie season, however his ERA was nearer to five.00 within the subsequent two seasons. He then missed most of 2022 and 2023 on account of Tommy John surgical procedure. He was again on the mound in 2024 however completed the 12 months with a 4.99 ERA.
Vázquez additionally has only one 12 months left on his deal, with a $10MM wage. He’s a robust defender behind the plate however has hit simply .222/.265/.322 over the previous two seasons. That manufacturing interprets to a wRC+ of 63, indicating he was 37% worse than league common.
Buying and selling one or each of these gamers may assist the Twins with their finances crunch however possible wouldn’t convey again huge returns. López, however, ought to have plenty of attraction. He’s set to make $21.5MM in every of the following three years, leaving $64.5MM remaining on his contract.
That’s a really good worth for a pitcher who’s going into his age-29 season and has been one of many higher hurlers in baseball over the previous 5 years. From 2020 to the current, he has thrown 719 1/3 innings with a 3.70 ERA, 26.3% strikeout charge, 6.3% stroll charge and 45.6% floor ball charge. FanGraphs has credited him with 14.7 wins above alternative in that point, which places him thirteenth out of all pitchers within the majors for that stretch.
The worth of beginning pitching has been particularly robust up to now this winter. Nathan Eovaldi simply bought three years and $75MM. His numbers have been pretty much like López lately however he’s far older, going into his age-35 season. Pitchers like Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino have had notably worse outcomes than López/Eovaldi however each bought three-year offers, Kikuchi getting a $63MM assure and Severino $67MM.
It appears truthful to conclude that the robust market may result in the Twins getting some fascinating gives that would not less than make them rethink their stance on López. In fact, the identical issues that make him interesting to different golf equipment additionally make him very priceless in Minnesota. The membership can actually maintain onto him and commerce guys like Paddack and/or Vázquez, however maybe they may obtain a suggestion for López that enables them to each get their payroll all the way down to the specified stage whereas additionally including a notable return that helps the franchise within the brief and long run.
As of now, the rotation group consists of López, Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson. Buying and selling López or Paddack would weaken the group however would additionally open a spot for younger pitchers like Zebby Matthews or David Festa, each of whom debuted in 2024. The Twins even have some non-roster choices like Huascar Ynoa and Darren McCaughan within the combine.
Subtracting López is definitely not what the entrance workplace desires and there’s no indication that they’re purchasing him round. However the scorching beginning pitching market appears to be making numerous golf equipment ponder trades of beginning pitchers a bit more durable than they anticipated to. Names like Luis Castillo, Dylan Stop, Jesús Luzardo and Framber Valdez have considerably surprisingly been in rumors of late. A crew being prepared to hear doesn’t imply a commerce goes to occur, as proven with Valdez and the Astros, as he’s now apparently off the desk. Nevertheless, it’s an fascinating twist on the offseason, with free brokers like Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty and Sean Manaea nonetheless obtainable.
