RosterResource Chat – 12/20/24

Jason Martinez: Welcome to a different RosterResource Reside Chat! It’s been one other enjoyable offseason. Rather a lot has occurred and nonetheless a protracted methods to go.

Be at liberty to browse round RosterResource in case you want some inspiration for a very good query or two. Right here’s the up to date projection for the Houston Astros with their new 1B … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros

Thanks for the chat!: How a lot is a greenback/conflict roughly? How overwater (surplus) is Decide’s contract? Are there any research on the best surplus profession gamers (Jram? Braves gamers?)

Jon Becker: We’ve a Worth metric that at the moment values every win at $8M, although a part of our group dialogue on the Winter Conferences was about $/WAR most likely isn’t linear. I consider when spitting out contract numbers ZiPS makes use of one thing like $5.5M for the primary win per yr after which $9M for every win thereafter. Irrespective of the way you slice it, Decide has been value a ton greater than he’s earned: https://www.fangraphs.com/gamers/aaron-judge/15640/stats?place=OF#…

Hunter: Walker signing appears to just about rule out a Bregman return to Houston, the place do you see him ending up? Yankees, Cubs, Tigers?

Jason Martinez: Lots of nice suits however I’d suppose the Yankees and Blue Jays should be the most probably groups. Unsure the Cubs wish to add extra $ and block Matt Shaw. If it’s not Shaw to start the season at 3B, I’d suppose they get a veteran stopgap who might step right into a bench position as soon as Shaw is prepared. Tigers are an important match. However, until they’re maintaining their curiosity very near the vest, it positive doesn’t look like they’re gonna spend large on a free agent. Pink Sox is also an important match, however I feel that might be down the highway if he’s nonetheless accessible in a month.

Mr Pasta: Hypothetically, if Toronto has by far the best provide for Burnes however he’s hoping for SF to extend their provide however they don’t budge, do you suppose he’s extra more likely to take the Jays’ cash or settle for regardless of the Giants are providing?

Jon Becker: Any reply I might give right here can be a complete guess; each participant’s going to have his personal priorities and $ distinction required to take the best provide even when it’s not his most well-liked touchdown spot.

wheelhouse: Ben Rice: projections actual or not a serious leaguer

Jason Martinez: I feel he is usually a stable large league common. Possibly as quickly as 2025 in the event that they let him play daily and hit on the backside of their lineup. However the query is whether or not the Yankees wish to go into the season with that a lot uncertainty. Lots of good veteran 1B choices proper now (Santana, Goldschmidt, Alonso).

Ryanfromtapps: Thanks for taking the time as we speak and for being so typically accessible to speak roster building! The Mariners claimed Raposo (C) from the Blue Jays yesterday and I’m curious to get your ideas on M’s catchers. Garver solely caught in 25 video games final yr – they’ll’t count on Cal to shoulder a lot of the load once more… can they??

Jon Becker: I haven’t seen any indication that they’re taking a look at including a 3rd catcher (or a second one and bumping Garver again to extra of an emergency position), however yeah I don’t suppose Raleigh can realistically catch 80% of the time. Garver was Kirby’s private catcher down the stretch so I’m guessing he sticks with that, and possibly one other easier-to-catch arm (Woo?) half the time, to make it 70/30.

Brownpants: Likeliest 1B path for AZ now that Walker’s gone? Re-sign Joc and have him play there generally?

Jason Martinez: Looks like Pavin Smith is the man. Small pattern however he was pretty much as good as he’s ever been in 2024 (.896 OPS, 9 HR in 158 PAs). In addition they want to determine a method to get Jordan Lawlar his at-bats as soon as he’s prepared. If a part of that equation is that he performs some 3B, Eugenio Suarez might presumably transfer throughout the diamond and play some 1B.

Thanks for the chat!: Assuming one other elite season, who finally goes after Vlad subsequent offseason? Doesn’t staying in Toronto take advantage of sense from a match and contract standpoint?

Jon Becker: I agree with you that Toronto makes essentially the most sense, at the very least proper now. If he has the perfect season of his profession in 2025, although, I feel much more groups are prepared to miss that he’s a primary baseman and provides him $400M+.

Dodgers Blue: If the Oneil Cruz in CF state of affairs bombs, what strikes do you suppose they make with him?  Strive in a nook OF spot, transfer again to the filth – and if that’s the case, again to SS?  Or do you are feeling they’re absolutely dedicated to this for a full yr (plus)?

Jason Martinez: I feel they’re 100% in on him being their CF for the subsequent 4 seasons earlier than free company (or till they commerce him). Appeared snug on the market and his athleticism makes the adjustment simpler. Looks like shifting him once more through the season wouldn’t be preferrred. And it’s not like they’ve many different choices on the market.

DET: Do you suppose Bregman or Ha-Seong Kim is a greater slot in Detroit?

Jon Becker: Bregman, I feel. There’s actually threat in giving him a protracted deal contemplating how his stroll fee tanked, however he’s far more of an affect bat than Kim and that’s what the Tigers want proper now greater than something.

Jules: How are you feeling in regards to the Astros offseason?

Jason Martinez: They’ve a lot extra work to do. For now, I feel they’ve finished OK. Paredes/Walker can mix for 60 HR. Shedding Bregman and Tucker will harm. Their projected OF is Meyers-McCormick-Taylor Trammell. So they may want so as to add 2 extra OF and one other SP.

query man: how a lot of your arcane roster data comes from taking part in OOTP

Jon Becker: Shockingly, I’ve by no means actually been in a position to get into OOTP. I spend an excessive amount of time studying and enthusiastic about the true stuff occurring to take care of an entire different faux league together with it!

Bullock’s: It appears to me that groups do much more mix-and-match with their lineups and lot much less straight platooning.  Equally, extra of biking everybody by means of the DH reasonably than having a single one.  So the query: what’s your course of for marking lineups / positions / platoons / and so on, and has it gotten more durable?

Jason Martinez: Yep, it has gotten far more troublesome. Clearly, I transfer issues round fairly often through the season as a result of you may choose up on tendencies. And through the offseason, I’m solely displaying what is likely to be a crew’s Opening Day lineup. I all the time attempt to emphasize how necessary the taking part in time projections are along with the roster projection. Groups actually can have two “bench” gamers with over 400 PAs and 2-4 “lineup regulars” with below 500 PAs. However I’m all the time making an attempt to think about higher methods for all of it to make sense to readers with out having so as to add much more clarification.

Thanks for the chat!: The place does Stroman find yourself?

Jon Becker: The Yankees don’t *should* commerce him, however I’m positive they’d prefer to. He’d be one other means for the A’s to get nearer to the $105M magic quantity to be compliant with income sharing, or possibly the Yankees can work out an iffy-contract swap with somebody. The Reds might want one other starter and would possibly wish to eliminate Candelario, for instance.

Cubbie Rubby: Do you suppose both Cassie or Alcantara grow to be full time gamers this season?

Jason Martinez: Not on the Cubs, barring an damage or commerce (possibly Suzuki however most likely not). They’re set with Happ-PCA-Tucker-Suzuki. A commerce to a different crew might make it extra doubtless. Each have good commerce worth in the meanwhile.

Victoria: How a lot cash do you suppose the Ms can be prepared to eat in a Castillo commerce?

Jon Becker: Relies upon so much on what they’d get in return and the way they’d prefer to facilitate that, IMO. If they’ll get an actual affect bat like Casas again, possibly they’re prepared to pay nearer to half. If it’s extra a need simply to eliminate the cash and purchase offense on the FA market, possibly they solely pay a number of million a yr. $22M a yr actually isn’t unhealthy for Castillo contemplating what FA SP have been getting this offseason, so that they wouldn’t should cowl a lot in any respect to maneuver him.

SJ: If the Twins are shifting Royce Lewis to 2B and should put Brooks Lee someplace, does that imply Julien is useless within the water?

Jason Martinez: I at the moment have Lee at 2B and Lewis at 3B with Julien on the bench (part-time position as 2B/1B/DH) … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins

Not acquainted sufficient with Lee to know whether or not the Twins would like him at 3B over 2B. He’s a SS so I assume he’d be fantastic at both spot. Unsure why Lewis would transfer to 2B in any other case. They don’t seem to have a MLB-ready 3B prospect they usually barely appear to be collaborating within the offseason. It’d simply be to provide them another choices.

Dodgers Blue: I believed the A’s made essentially the most sense for Yoan Moncada on a 1-year bounce again contract.  Now that they signed Urshela – are they out of the image?  Or is it nonetheless attainable they may signal Yoan to play third and transfer Urshela to a again up position?  If not the A’s, do the Marlins now take advantage of sense for Moncada?  And if that’s the case, would you see them utilizing him at 2B – or shifting Norby there and giving Yoan 3B?

Jon Becker: I’d a lot reasonably signal Moncada than Urshela since there’s precise upside there, although they nonetheless might, I suppose, since Urshela can play a bit brief and first too. I just like the Marlins as a match for Moncada, I’m guessing they’d attempt each 2B and 3B out throughout spring coaching and resolve which alignment they like finest.

Kave Dingman: How do you go about filling out a roster slot when the Opening Day resolution is just not on the roster but? For instance – Nationals nearer is at the moment Legislation/Ferrer/Garcia.

Jason Martinez: It’s one among my favourite points of the offseason RosterResource pages … “if we fast-forward to Opening Day with the present roster, that is doubtless what they’d go along with”. Some are far more apparent holes and would possibly as properly have a “TBD” however that’s no enjoyable. Some folks simply neglect that we have now months to go and nonetheless a variety of free agent and commerce prospects.

Ryan: What precisely is happening in Arizona, 89 wins final yr however radio silence thus far this offseason and now they lose one among their higher gamers

Jon Becker: A very good chunk of groups haven’t finished a lot of something this offseason, and I can get by no means being all that in on bringing Walker again when he ended up signing for 3y/$60M and he’s 33. I feel they’ll, at minimal, commerce away a starter, add a reliever or two, and add some bench depth.

John B: On the Giants, I’m curious in regards to the considering in having McCray in left and Ramos DH. It looks as if there are extra apparent suits at DH (Flores, Encarnacion) and most of the people suppose McCray might use extra time at AAA given his strikeout fee. Thanks

Jason Martinez: This can be a nice instance of what I used to be discussing in my earlier query/reply. I see McCray as the apparent “TBD” however I feel it has thrown a number of folks off once they see him there. I’m most likely going to maneuver Wilmer Flores to DH and Ramos to LF — Wilmer had an important offensive season in 2023 — however the Giants have mentioned they wish to preserve the DH spot open and rotate it between a bunch of fellows. In order that they have some flexibility so as to add another bat, no matter place.

Not simple to point out that on the RR web page, however I assume that’s a very good purpose to host these Reside Chats.

Hunter: Is there one other transfer coming for the Phillies after signing Kepler? I’m undecided I perceive the match.

Jon Becker: It didn’t make an entire lot of sense to me both. Kepler’s an excellent proper fielder however hasn’t performed left within the majors, and Castellanos barely has, so somebody’s going to be out of place. And I’m undecided Marsh is way of a middle fielder, both, so general the protection is worse than it was yesterday. Possibly they’re extra assured of their capacity to maneuver Castellanos?

SH, Jr.: Projection techniques nonetheless appear to suppose kindly of Tyler Freeman. Followers see launch angle issues. Do you mission a path to common taking part in time or at the very least non-Twenty sixth-man standing for him?

Jason Martinez: He most likely has to attend in line for one more alternative. Much like Gabriel Arias. Superb prospect. Obtained an opportunity to play so much. By no means hit. Now he’s out of choices and the Guardians should prioritize him a bit. Freeman is an effective prospect. Quick. Versatile. However he didn’t hit sufficient so I feel he will get buried down within the depth chart for now. Particularly as a result of they appear to favor Juan Brito or Angel Martinez at 2B till Bazzana is prepared. He’ll nonetheless get an opportunity to win a bench job.

YorDaddy: Would it not be good for the Astros to maneuver Framber sooner reasonably than later for a much bigger haul?

Jon Becker: If the purpose is simply to get a much bigger haul, then they need to transfer him now to make that occur, yeah. However whereas Kyle Tucker is unimaginable to totally substitute, they may at the very least substitute his homers (after which some) with Paredes + Walker. There’s not an ace-level pitcher they’re going so as to add in the event that they transfer Framber, since they don’t transcend six yr offers (so no Burnes), so shifting Framer would go away a much bigger void, IMO.

Bullock’s: Mariners want at the very least two infielders.  Gleyber Torres appears about their velocity.  Anybody else a greater match for him?

Jason Martinez: The 2B market is so weak. Mariners look like the perfect match however I’m undecided they wish to pay him what he’s value. Similar with a number of different groups who might use a 2B improve. Possibly he’d take a 1-year deal and take a look at once more subsequent offseason. Nonetheless looks as if the Yankees are the perfect match for him.

George: Would you progress CJ Abrams to the outfield in case you’re the Nats and look to maneuver Jacob Younger? or simply say you’re going to not win this yr would possibly as properly see if he can stick at brief?

Jon Becker: I feel that’s one thing to think about down the road, however with out anybody who’s pushing him for SS time proper now, would possibly as properly preserve him there. Second base might additionally make sense.

Commerce Simulator: Hey Jason, wished to circle again on my commerce simulator query from a pair weeks in the past. Did that get any traction throughout your FG meetup?

Jason Martinez: We mentioned some smaller tasks and one very large mission that might just about cowl a variety of issues of this nature. Not precisely a commerce simulator however you’d be capable of filter much more roster and RosterResource-related information and evaluate gamers by contract, WAR, projected WAR, age, and so on. Unsure of the ETA however I’m hoping to have one thing like this by subsequent offseason.

Phil: Who’s the likeliest opening day second baseman for the Pink Sox?

Jon Becker: Regardless that we’ve received Hamilton projected, I’d say it’s most likely Campbell. We simply don’t like to mission high prospects to win a job till we get some extra readability throughout Spring Coaching, particularly if there’s somebody round like Hamilton who performed fairly properly.

Jon Becker: I’ll take a number of in a row right here whereas Jason’s away from his keyboard…

Phil: With Dan’s Tigers ZIPS forecast popping out as we speak, what do you 2 suppose the Tigers ought to do that offseason? Looks like a .500 crew with room to enhance, however, additionally a # of younger guys you might not wish to block. Looks like an SP, 1 IF, 1 OF (Teoscar?) would go a good distance.

Jon Becker: I agree with you that they really feel .500ish. I feel Hinch did a extremely good job of blending and matching and getting essentially the most out of his roster, however that’s not inherently repeatable. SP depth seems fairly good however they may use one other higher-floor man to pair with Skubal, they usually undoubtedly want an enormous bat for the center of the order.

Doc: If you happen to’re the Mets and that you must use a nook INF place for an influence bat, do you:  (a) resign Pete, (b) signal Bregman and shift Vientos, (c) look to the commerce market (e.g., Arenado, Naylor), or (d) one thing extra fascinating?

Jon Becker: I’d most likely go along with (c), assuming I can line up with Cleveland for Naylor on a good package deal. A lot decrease threat than signing an older free agent for a number of years.

Dr. J: Mookie can’t play SS once more, can he? Edman is okay for a fill in–however he’s not full-time…and the SS FA market seems to be fairly slim.  What do you see as practical choices for the Dodgers at SS?

Jason Martinez: Mookie because the SS didn’t go nice final season and, but, they are saying they’re doing it once more. So I’m going to take their phrase for it. And likewise belief that Mookie is aware of it didn’t go properly and he’s the type of participant that may put within the work to enhance. There weren’t very many choices in the event that they weren’t prepared to go all in on Willy Adames so I feel they figured this was the perfect route. At the very least for 2025.

Dodgers Blue: Are you shopping for Clay Holmes, Beginning Pitcher?  Rumors are Mets are nonetheless taking a look at FA Market – they usually have already got Megill/Peterson (each with 1 possibility left) and who regarded fairly good final yr, and Blackburn/Canning (each with no choices left). I get none of those names are game-changers, however particularly IF the Mets signal one other locked in rotation arm to go along with Montas and Senga, which guys are the odd males out on this equation?

Jon Becker: It sounds just like the Mets have a plan for him and it’s not simply “we’re going to stretch you out and see what occurs” so positive, I purchase it. I feel Senga, Peterson, Montas, and Holmes have 4 spots, they usually might go to a six-man. So two spots for Blackburn, Canning, and Megill. Blackburn might be traded and both or each of the latter two might find yourself within the bullpen, although

Jules: Jason, do the Astros commerce Framber Valdez for OF?

Jason Martinez: No, I nonetheless don’t suppose the plan was to commerce each. They’ll preserve Framber and wait out the free agent marketplace for an OF. Jesse Winker is sensible. Possibly Alex Verdugo. David Peralta was actually good final season. All can be good suits in LF.

YorDaddy: I do know the Dodgers simply received with just about wire to wire dominance, however with this new “half the groups make the playoffs” period of MLB, do you see team-building dynamics change a bit the place extra “okay” groups attempt to marginally enhance to a 85-90 win crew, sneak into the playoffs, and make some noise ala 2023 Rangers?

Jon Becker: I feel we’re already seeing much more of this, which appears to be good for gamers getting signed sooner/to greater contracts, in addition to gamers desirous to go someplace there’s an inexpensive expectation of them profitable. The Marlins and White Sox are the one two groups with no actual intention of profitable in 2025, and I feel there can be fairly a number of extra if there have been solely 8 or 10 playoff groups.

josh: i is likely to be within the minority, however i actually like what the astros have finished. The primary possibility would have been to increase Tucker and Bregman, however for the reason that proprietor is unwilling to do this, this plan appeared the subsequent best choice. They elevated MLB and prospect depth and now have payroll flexibility subsequent yr and past. From a useful resource allocation/roster constructing perspective, all of it is sensible. Am I loopy?

Jason Martinez: They’ve been to the playoffs in 9 of the final 10 seasons and have two WS rings throughout that span. It’s not that they don’t make unhealthy strikes however they’ve finished what most groups can solely hope to do. Be a playoff contender each season. Unsure I just like the return for Tucker, however I don’t fault them for making the commerce.

Justin: Do both of you could have a digital corridor of fame poll that you just’d prefer to share? Thanks!

Jason Martinez: My reply is boring as a result of I don’t actually have any points with voting in any of the fellows who’re doubtless going to fall brief or will go right down to the tenth season (Wagner, Abreu, Buehrle, Utley, and so on). Let all of them in!

Dodgers Blue: Braves BP on the floor seems like they need assistance. IF throughout ST, a man like Waldrep seems lights out, do you take into account him for a serious large league ‘pen position – or just let him proceed to develop as a starter on the farm?

Jason Martinez: Seems like they’re hoping Daysbel takes a step foward and locks down a high-leverage position. Relying on how issues shake out, I feel Holmes might find yourself as a really worthwhile bullpen arm if he’s not wanted within the rotation. Waldrep and Smith-Shawver have the potential to dominate out of the ‘pen however they’d should power the Braves’ hand. I feel they’re fantastic letting them proceed to develop as starters.

Determined pirates fan: How do you suppose taking part in time is split at catcher for the pirates? Does essentially the most RF taking part in time go to a participant at the moment within the org or somebody but to be signed?

Jason Martinez: Depends upon how Endy seems as he returns from TJ surgical procedure. My present projection … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … assumes that he’ll should be eased again on protection however his bat must be within the lineup. He can hit! Thus, Endy at DH and Jason Delay because the backup catcher. Solely factor we all know at this level is that Joey Bart earned the beginning job and ought to be in line for at the very least 55% of the begins they usually actually like Delay in a backup position.

Daniel: The Padres are eerily quiet, but as all the time, their roster is… eccentric. Any pathways ahead that make sense for them?

Jason Martinez: Aside from the Soto commerce that had a predictable commerce accomplice and return, they did virtually nothing final offseason both. Waited till the final minute to convey again Profar for $1MM after which didn’t commerce for Stop till they have been about to go away for the Dodgers collection in South Korea. I used to be afraid this was going to occur however my guess is that they wish to keep below the luxurious tax threshold they usually’re already proper up in opposition to it. It’s attainable they’ll’t do something until they commerce Stop and/or Arraez. And it’s attainable that they’ll wait till the Sasaki determination earlier than they do something in any respect.

RosterResource Fan: Simply wished to say Thank You! The Roster Useful resource is one among my favourite elements of the subscription. I used it greater than Leaderboards because of the Walkoff.

Jason Martinez: Thanks for studying! It’s all the time good to know that different folks out on the planet love these things as a lot as I do. And it’s the rationale why that is my job now.

Jason Martinez: That’ll do it for as we speak. Benefit from the vacation and we’ll be again subsequent Friday for some post-Xmas/pre-New Yr’s baseball speak.