DALLAS — Through the center of the Winter Conferences, the Cleveland Guardians flipped Spencer Horwitz, the principal side of their return from the Toronto Blue Jays within the Andrés Giménez commerce, to the Pittsburgh Pirates in alternate for 3 pitchers: Luis L. Ortiz, Michael Kennedy, and Josh Hartle. The deal expands the Guardians’ return for Giménez — whose projected influence on Toronto you’ll be able to examine right here — to 4 items when you embrace Nick Mitchell, a 2024 fourth rounder out of Indiana who was drafted by the Blue Jays and shipped to Cleveland within the preliminary deal.
The most important fish within the quartet is Ortiz, a hard-throwing 25-year-old Dominican righty who has pitched at the very least a part of every of the final three seasons within the majors in a number of completely different roles. Throughout 238 1/3 huge league innings, Ortiz has a profession 3.93 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 17.9% Okay%, and 9.8% BB%, however these stats don’t sufficiently illuminate Ortiz’s expertise and potential, nor do they contextualize his deployment with Pittsburgh. A former prime 100 prospect, Ortiz was shuttled between the Pirates rotation and bullpen a number of instances throughout the previous couple of seasons. He started 2024 as an extended reliever and was shifted again right into a beginning position halfway via the season. After he had struggled with walks since reaching the higher ranges of the minors, Ortiz had by far his best huge league season as a strike-thrower, and he walked simply 7.8% of batters after his transfer again into the rotation. He labored 135 innings mixed between his two roles, which is true according to his season-long workload from every of the previous three seasons and enough to undertaking him straight into Cleveland’s 2025 rotation.
Ortiz was a prime 100 prospect as a result of, regardless of his strike-throwing points within the minors, he has premium arm power and an enormous slider. I used to be of the opinion that, even when Ortiz by no means developed right into a starter-quality strike-thrower, his stuff could be sufficiently big for him to play a high-leverage bullpen position. However Ortiz hasn’t missed huge league bats at that stage, even when he’s been capable of air it out as a reliever and max out his fastball within the 99-100 mph vary. Cleveland has among the many greatest pitcher growth observe data within the recreation and now will attempt to optimize Ortiz’s prodigious stuff. The curvaceous Ortiz (he’s 6-foot-2, 240 kilos or so) has a strong decrease physique and is an impressively unfastened and whippy athlete for a man his measurement. His low three-quarters supply produces pitches with largely lateral motion. He works with a four-seamer, sinker, cutter, slider, and as soon as in a blue moon will present you a changeup. The Pirates tinkered with the speed of Ortiz’s sinker/four-seam utilization in 2023, and the cutter was a brand new addition in 2024. That surfeit of fastballs ought to proceed to assist Ortiz work as effectively as doable for somebody who generally struggles with mechanical consistency, particularly the sinker, which generated a 58% groundball fee in 2024.
The meal ticket pitch right here, although, is Ortiz’s slider. It flashes ridiculous horizontal motion for a pitch within the 83-87 mph vary and was the one pitch in Ortiz’s repertoire to generate an above-average swinging strike fee (14%) in 2024. Regardless of missing vertical depth, Ortiz’s slider performed equally effectively towards lefties and righties in 2024, at the very least so far as chase and miss are involved. That slider and an elevated four-seam fastball are the methods Ortiz most frequently makes an attempt to complete hitters off in two-strike counts. If Cleveland can both add one thing (like a splitter?) or increase a facet of Ortiz’s repertoire (maybe through one thing as benign as his placement on the rubber) to present him a second dynamic, bat-missing pitch, then he’ll extra cleanly profile as a starter. For some time now I’ve been betting on Ortiz’s unusual mixture of measurement, athleticism, and arm velocity to hold him to such a task, and I’m nonetheless inclined to take action now that he’s with an org that has proven a capability to make pitchers higher. However Ortiz, so far, has not carried out to the extent I’d hoped he would when he was a prospect.
The opposite pitchers coming again to Cleveland are each within the group’s developmental wheelhouse. The Guardians love accessing pitchers who do every little thing however throw arduous within the hope that their pitching dev machine may also help the pitchers add velocity and facilitate a breakout. Tanner Bibee and Shane Bieber are nice examples of this. They received two variations of that in squat, 20-year-old lefty Michael Kennedy, and newly drafted 21-year-old southpaw, Josh Hartle.
Kennedy has superior command of two good off-speed pitches and well-below-average fastball velocity, sitting 88-91 mph. He was a 2022 over-slot fourth rounder who signed for $1 million reasonably than go to LSU, and in 2024 he pitched his technique to Excessive-A. A brief-levered 6-foot-1, Kennedy’s bodily traits mixed together with his low-to-the-ground supply assist his fastball punch above its weight. The road it takes to the plate is flat and hard for hitters to get on prime of. The vertical snap and 11-to-5 motion of Kennedy’s 77-83 mph breaking ball performs properly off of his fastball, and Kennedy instructions each and likes to change his leg kick to mess with hitters’ timing. Kennedy’s really feel for finding his 82-84 mph changeup improved in 2024, and that pitch generated above-average chase and miss. It is a high-floored back-end starter prospect monitoring for a 2027 debut. Most 20-year-old pitchers have a good bit of bodily projection left, Kennedy much less so primarily based on his body however arguably extra primarily based on his athleticism. Cleveland has been capable of coax extra arm power out of men who weren’t clearly projectable, and if they will do the identical with Kennedy (whereas he retains his nice command) then he’ll get away and look extra like a mid-rotation candidate.
Josh Hartle, however, has had thrilling bodily projection for his whole lifetime as a prospect, however he hasn’t but delivered on it. He’s a 6-foot-5 lefty who had a ton of profile in highschool and appeared like he is likely to be the beneficiary of Wake Forest’s pitching dev program and doubtlessly go within the first spherical of the 2024 draft. It regarded like Hartle was making the leap as a sophomore, even with out elevated velocity, however his efficiency backed up throughout his junior 12 months. Due to Wake’s popularity as a pitching manufacturing unit, there’s concern that if there have been higher stuff right here, this system would’ve have unlocked it. All the weather that made Hartle an thrilling highschool prospect are nonetheless right here (broad-shouldered 6-foot-5 body, very repeatable supply, starter-quality repertoire depth and command), however his fastball averaged 90 mph throughout the 2024 school season; he gave up lots of hits and went within the third spherical. He encompasses a five-pitch combine and largely lives within the backside of the zone. His sweeping breaking ball and changeup (each low-to-mid-80s) generated roughly common miss in 2024, whereas his fastball and cutter had been manner, manner beneath common in that regard. That is grounder-getting (60% GB%) fifth-starter stuff.
Although none of those gamers are more likely to match the height Giménez has had, Cleveland stands a reasonably good probability of getting at the very least two soon-to-be integral members of its pitching employees out of this commerce. If we’ve seen Giménez’s peak already and he hits extra like he did in 2024 for the remainder of his contract, it’s doable one or two of those pitchers will likely be about nearly as good or a bit higher than both Giménez or Horwitz. Ortiz will play a task straight away, and over the course of 2025 would possibly turn out to be an increasing number of impactful both as a starter or behind Cleveland’s bullpen. The Guardians have proven no compunction about accelerating the promotional tempo of pitching prospects who’ve an uptick in arm power, and if both Hartle of Kennedy do, they could put themselves on the doorstep of the large leagues by the top of the season.
The Pirates are dealing from the deep a part of their group — their assortment of younger pitchers. In Horwitz, they get a hitter, which they badly want, who graduated as a forty five FV participant final 12 months when it grew to become clear that he might play a satisfactory, situational second base. As a result of make-up of the Pirates roster, he’s more likely to spend a majority of his time at first base. He’s a transparent improve from Pittsburgh’s different choices right here at the moment, even when he lacks the facility typical of an influence first baseman. The Pirates coughed up depth on this commerce extra for Horwitz’s years of management (they’ve him via 2030) than his ceiling. He’s a artistic, long-term resolution of modest influence and makes their huge league workforce just a little bit higher straight away.
