Whereas free agent beginning pitchers have carried out fairly nicely for themselves this winter, free agent relievers aren’t precisely flying off the cabinets. To that time, solely two relievers from MLBTR’s High 50 Free Brokers listing have signed thus far, and each of them joined their new groups to be beginning pitchers: Clay Holmes and Michael Soroka. It was significantly attention-grabbing to see Holmes signal as a starter. For one factor, he hasn’t began a sport since his rookie season in 2018. What’s extra, he has been one of many high relievers within the sport over the previous 4 seasons, pitching to a 3.05 ERA and a couple of.83 SIERA with 74 saves in 264 appearances. He was an All-Star in 2022 and ’24.
Jeff Hoffman is without doubt one of the aforementioned unsigned relievers from MLBTR’s High 50 listing. Like Holmes, he’s coming off an All-Star season out of the ’pen, however he’s reportedly drawing curiosity as a beginning pitcher. Certainly, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported in mid-December that Hoffman had acquired “extra curiosity from groups” as a starter. That helps clarify why Hoffman appears to have set his sights on a deal in the identical vary because the three-year, $38MM contract Holmes landed from the Mets, based on Matt Gelb of The Athletic.
It’s not laborious to grasp why Hoffman would evaluate himself to Holmes. They’re each right-handed relievers with closing expertise, and so they’re lower than three months aside in age. Then once more, whereas Holmes has an extended monitor document of success, most metrics recommend Hoffman has been the higher pitcher since he broke out as a high-leverage reliever partway by way of the 2023 marketing campaign. Particularly, he’s coming off a stronger 2024 season in virtually each single statistical class, together with strikeout charge, stroll charge, innings pitched, ERA, SIERA, and all variations of WAR.
That’s exactly why MLBTR ranked Hoffman forward of Holmes on our High 50 listing, predicting a four-year, $44MM contract for the previous and a three-year, $30MM deal for the latter. Contemplating that Holmes was in a position to beat his predicted contract by $8MM, one may need thought Hoffman could be searching for much more – maybe one thing nearer to the four-year, $56MM deal we initially predicted for fellow free agent reliever Tanner Scott.
Nonetheless, Hoffman and his brokers have now had a few months to gauge curiosity on the open market, and one wonders if he’s found that groups aren’t valuing him considerably greater than they valued Holmes. In any case, it doesn’t appear as if the Mets vastly outbid each different suitor for Holmes’s providers. Mere hours earlier than he signed, Jayson Stark of The Athletic reported that Holmes was nonetheless selecting between quite a few gives and that he had been in negotiations with a number of contending groups. Perhaps a type of suitors may pivot to Hoffman as a substitute, particularly if he’s searching for the same deal.
The Phillies have been a type of contending golf equipment. They’re additionally the one group that has been formally linked to Hoffman this offseason. But, after including reliever Jordan Romano, starter Jesús Luzardo, and swingman Joe Ross, they’re virtually definitely out on Hoffman.
Evidently, Hoffman has different suitors, however it’s not but clear who they’re. Different groups that have been reportedly in on Holmes embody the Orioles, Crimson Sox, and Blue Jays. The Orioles have been concerned about Holmes as a starter, however they’ve since signed Tomoyuki Sugano, seemingly filling that gap. The Blue Jays, in the meantime, have been concerned about Holmes as a reliever, and so they have since signed Yimi García. It’s tougher to say if that may preclude them from pursuing Hoffman. As for the Crimson Sox, it’s unclear in the event that they wished Holmes as a starter or a reliever, however it’s value noting that they’ve added three starters since they have been linked to Holmes (Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Patrick Sandoval), and so they have already got two potential closers behind their bullpen (Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman).
