Can anybody cease the Mets? That’s not a query I anticipated to be asking this yr, except it was “Can anybody cease the Mets from signing marquee free brokers?” or “Can anybody cease the Mets from imploding in essentially the most Mets-y means conceivable?” However because the Nationwide League Division Sequence begins, the Mets are on a kind of team-of-destiny runs that looks like a self-fulfilling prophecy. There’s no deficit they will’t overcome, no lead they will’t squander after which retake within the subsequent inning. They’re upping the diploma of issue considerably beginning Saturday, although: The Phillies have been among the finest groups in baseball all yr, they usually’re rested and prepared for what guarantees to be an thrilling collection.
A story of the tape – Francisco Lindor is sweet at x, Bryce Harper is sweet at y, Zack Wheeler and Kodai Senga will sq. off in Sport 1, so on and so forth – doesn’t really feel like the best technique to describe this collection. As a substitute, I’m going to concentrate on how every crew tries to win, and the way these plans are almost definitely to go awry.
The Mets have thrived offensively this yr with a easy blueprint: energy on the high of the lineup and Jose Iglesias someway doing every little thing else. Lindor is so good that he’s nearly an offense unto himself: He led the Mets in runs (107), RBI (91), steals (29), on-base proportion (.344), slugging proportion (.500), and just about every little thing else you may think about, apart from residence runs (33). In that class, he completed one off the crew lead behind Pete Alonso. Alonso had a down yr in 2024, however he’s excellent on the ability the Mets most want from him: clobbering homers to drive in Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and generally Iglesias. Mark Vientos capabilities as a second Alonso; he’s there to hit homers or advance runners with situational hitting, however he’s contemporary out of situational hitting.
This plan has labored fairly nicely all yr, and it’s labored significantly nicely within the string of playoff and playoff-like video games they’ve received this week. The highest 5 hitters mixed to drive in all of the runs in Monday’s playoff-clinching win in opposition to the Braves. Iglesias and Vientos keyed Tuesday’s victory over the Brewers. A 3-run Alonso homer was all of the scoring they wanted to ship Milwaukee residence Thursday night time. It’s hardly an unsustainable plan; the Mets have been seventh in wRC+ (109) and likewise runs scored (768) this yr, near-doppelgängers for the Phillies.
What may go unsuitable with New York’s offense? It’s fairly simple to grasp. If Lindor, Alonso, and Vientos aren’t supplying the facility, runs are onerous to return by. Even with Iglesias handing over a career-best season as a slap-hitting spark plug, the Mets play station to station. They’re one of many worst baserunning groups within the majors. Lindor is the most important exception to this rule, although Starling Marte, Tyrone Taylor, and Nimmo are additionally prepared to take an additional base right here and there. For essentially the most half, runs come both from the mixed excellence of the crew’s finest hitters or from stringing collectively a ton of singles to drive residence a number of the plodders.
Shutting down the Mets may sound easy – hold their good hitters off the board – however it’s not simple. Alonso and Vientos crush fastballs. Nimmo and Lindor excel in opposition to chase-seeking secondaries. Iglesias will swing at something and continuously make contact – and this yr, he’s turning most of that contact into flared singles. One-trick pony pitchers who lean on one or the opposite of a nasty slider or enormous fastball will run into hassle in opposition to the Mets.
Fortunately for the Phillies, that doesn’t describe their starters in any respect. Wheeler is a five-trick pony, at minimal: He throws six pitches, and solely his split-change is beneath common. He additionally has nice command and pitches deep into video games. I imply, clearly he does: He’s one of many highest pitchers in baseball, and he has been because the day he went to Philadelphia. Aaron Nola is an in a position second banana; he’ll have his biggest benefit in opposition to Alonso and Vientos because of a hammer curveball.
Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez can have their work lower out for them on this collection – lefty sinkerballers don’t match up nicely in opposition to the Mets’ righty energy bats. Nonetheless, they’re glorious choices as no. 3 and 4 starters. The third and fourth video games of the collection are sandwiched by journey days, and Wheeler and Nola usually give the bullpen a break on their begins. That units the Phillies as much as go bullpen-heavy when their lefties are on the mound and assault the highest of the Mets order with a succession of nice relievers.
The Philadelphia bullpen was among the finest within the majors all yr, a lot in order that it’s nonetheless a high unit regardless of buying and selling away a number of contributing relievers on the deadline. That energy can be blunted considerably in opposition to the Mets, although; New York completely crushed lefty pitching this yr, and the Phillies have three standout southpaw relievers. The perfect spot to deploy a lefty might be in opposition to the Lindor-Vientos/Iglesias-Nimmo portion of the order, however that’s not even excellent.
Nonetheless, the Phillies are deep. Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, and even José Ruiz deliver strikeout stuff from the best aspect. If I have been managing the Phillies, I’d hold rotating matchups to forestall Vientos and Alonso from seeing any of those arms too typically. I’d combine in a number of the good lefties in opposition to them in low-leverage spots, and perhaps even organize for a Taijuan Walker sighting.
Controlling the highest half of the lineup is quite a lot of the problem when going through the Mets, and the Phillies actually have the arms to do it. However baseball being what it’s, that’s no assure of success. Lindor, Nimmo, and Alonso have hit the most important homers of the yr for the Mets, all three this week. They got here off of righty relievers with ERAs of three.67, 1.98, and 1.25, respectively. A method this collection may go: Philadelphia sends its finest pitchers on the Mets, and the Mets come out victorious.
After all, the Phillies get to bat too. In some methods, they’re constructed equally to their rivals; the highest of their order options two energy threats and a multi-talented shortstop, and the remainder of the hitters aren’t almost nearly as good. Of their case, although, the shortstop looks like a reasonably clear third banana as a substitute of your entire offensive identification of the crew. Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the Phillies offense in some ways. They’ve comparable skillsets and have produced comparable worth this yr. You’ll wrestle to make them chase. They’ll swing out of their sneakers attempting to hit homers. They may strike out consequently – however they have a tendency to take action on their very own phrases, taking enormous hacks at pitches that they’ll obliterate in the event that they make contact.
Trea Turner bats between them and does somewhat little bit of every little thing. I’m anticipating him to amp up the baserunning aggression in October; this was by far the worst baserunning yr of his profession, however the playoffs seem to be a very good time to eschew good long-term well being administration and put your foot on the fuel pedal. Even when he isn’t stealing bases and making aggressive developments, although, he’s a fantastic hitter. He’ll get to face a ton of southpaws because of his lineup place between two lefty sluggers, and he’s been 10% higher with the platoon benefit over his prolonged profession.
Like its counterpart in New York, the Philly lineup falls off after its high guys. Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm bat fourth and fifth in some order most days, and at occasions they’ve been nice: Castellanos has a 132 wRC+ within the second half of the season, and Bohm made the All-Star crew because of a scorching first half. However that scorching streak from Castellanos introduced his profession mark with the Phillies as much as a 103 wRC+, and 105 for the 2024 season. In the meantime, Bohm cooled off onerous within the second half (90 wRC+).
I believe the important thing to the Mets offense is how a lot the highest guys can do injury in opposition to excellent opposition. I believe that the important thing to the Phillies lineup, alternatively, is whether or not the underside half could make life simpler for Harper and associates. Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh seem like platoon bats at this level of their careers. Johan Rojas and Edmundo Sosa are the opposite half of these platoons, however they hardly strike concern into opposing pitchers. J.T. Realmuto is the wild card right here; he bought higher because the yr went on, in stark distinction to what you’d anticipate from a 33-year-old catcher. If he’s extra MVP candidate than defensive specialist who can hit somewhat, the lineup will look deeper and scarier for Mets pitchers. If he and Castellanos flip into pumpkins, the crew may be counting on Wheeler and Nola to win quite a lot of 2-1 video games.
Talking of 2-1 duels, the Mets rotation strains up pretty nicely in opposition to the Phillies, although it merely doesn’t have the identical firepower as Philadelphia does in its rotation. Senga will get the beginning in Sport 1, however with solely 19 2/3 innings pitched throughout all ranges this yr due to a number of accidents, he’s in all probability not going to pitch deep into the sport. Tylor Megill would’ve been subsequent in line to attract that begin, so he’ll presumably be readily available as a protracted reliever if crucial. Senga’s look might be extraordinarily brief; the final time he threw a number of aggressive innings got here in the midst of July in a minor league recreation, and even that look lasted solely three innings.
Luis Severino was Senga’s alternative atop the rotation this yr; relying on how Senga seems to be in Sport 1, both he or Severino would presumably draw a Sport 5 task. Because of the way in which the schedule strains up, Severino could be on common relaxation for that one even after he pitches Sport 2, a boon to the Mets after they performed 5 video games in 4 days this week. The Senga/Megill recreation is the hardest one to determine; I believe that it will likely be a de facto bullpen recreation except Senga seems to be dominant and covers not less than a couple of innings, which is principally unknowable at this level.
When the collection shifts again to New York, the Mets will deliver out their lefties: Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana. Manaea was Severino’s equal this yr, and I believe I’d take him over Severino if I had to decide on considered one of them for one recreation solely, however his relaxation schedule received’t permit him to go twice within the collection. Quintana continues to be the identical pitcher – he’s artful and may nonetheless spin a pleasant curveball, however his nice expertise is in bulk innings, not dominance. If he can get the Phillies chasing within the early going, he may put up a begin to rival his six scoreless innings in opposition to the Brewers in Sport 3 of the Wild Card Sequence. If he begins falling behind within the rely, it may be a protracted night time for the Mets, and a brief one for him.
I anticipate the Mets to be extraordinarily cautious about letting Schwarber and Harper see the identical pitcher for a 3rd time. I’d be prepared to provide New York’s two lefty starters an opportunity the third time by way of, however I wouldn’t let Megill strive it if the sport is shut, and I wouldn’t really feel nice about Senga’s (assuming he may even face 18+ batters) or Severino’s possibilities. That places the crew in a difficult spot, as a result of it doesn’t have many efficient lefty relievers. David Peterson is the best choice, however he’s a swingman, not a high-leverage arm. Danny Younger is the one different lefty on the squad, and whereas he’s a traditional sinker/slider LOOGY, I wouldn’t be tripping throughout myself to get him into the sport in opposition to two top-tier sluggers.
In a means, although, that lack of lefties might be liberating. Platoon matchups aren’t as essential as simply utilizing good pitchers, and if the Mets aren’t forcing themselves to play the handedness recreation, they will flip their finest relievers unfastened in opposition to the highest of the lineup and work every little thing else out later. Edwin Díaz is comfy getting into video games earlier than the ninth inning and likewise comfy getting greater than three outs; I’d take him over Peterson and Younger any day. Reed Garrett, José Buttó, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek may all draw lefty-slugger responsibility as nicely. The important thing can be various up the seems to be whereas deploying good relievers in good spots, which is simpler stated than accomplished. Carlos Mendoza has accomplished a very good job of it to this point, although. He’ll get an opportunity to sink or swim on a much bigger stage beginning Saturday.
Due to the construction of this text, it in all probability looks like I believe the collection is a toss-up. I don’t; the lineups may be comparable, however the rotations aren’t. I’d name the groups evenly matched in Video games 3 and 4, however Wheeler is miles higher than anybody on the Mets employees. That’s two video games the place the Phillies can have an enormous benefit within the early innings. Nola is not any slouch both. ZiPS provides the Phillies a large 66% probability of advancing because of their edge in beginning pitching. Playing markets are almost as bullish; they’ve the Phillies round 65% to win the collection. Our easy projection-based mannequin provides them a 64% probability; PECOTA has it 60/40. The Phillies are undoubtedly the higher crew.
A much less intrepid preview author may go away it at that. I’ll exit on a limb, although, and say that I believe these odds are too low on the Mets. They aren’t 50% to win this collection, clearly. The Phillies are better-rested and received the NL East by six video games. However the two groups had the identical BaseRuns file. The Mets didn’t simply get scorching this week; they’ve one of the best file in baseball since June 1. They’ve outscored the Phillies over that stretch and allowed fewer runs. They have been actually abysmal within the early going this yr, and full-season stats and projections do a greater job of predicting playoff success than arbitrary-endpoint streaks, however this isn’t some scrappy underdog squad. The Mets are legit and fairly able to going toe-to-toe with anybody on this juggernaut-light yr.
So my prediction? Mets in 4. I’m going in opposition to what the numbers say, and I don’t suppose I’m 50% more likely to be proper. However I do suppose that the broader baseball public is just too assured in Philly’s possibilities, and I like going in opposition to the grain. So there you will have it. In a matchup the place the groups are extra alike than they’re completely different, small edges may decide the collection. Gimme “OMG” remixes with Pitbull over a will-they-won’t-they relationship with “Dancing On My Personal,” significantly in the event that they aren’t going with the unique Robyn model. And if I choose the Mets after which they get drubbed in three lopsided video games? Properly, what’s extra Mets-y than that? It’s a no-lose proposition.
