Be aware: I made a decision to focus on the names of two Ukrainian gymnasts featured on this article. On the backside of this text is an announcement on Ukraine explaining why I did this.
This text is my greatest try to find out who was probably the most dominant gymnast ever in junior competitors within the historical past of ladies’s creative gymnastics (WAG). Not like different tasks the place I’ve introduced information previously, on this event I need to emphasize that the methodology will not be the very best and the ultimate outcomes shouldn’t be taken too severely. Slightly, this information is supposed to offer solely a enjoyable perception on which gymnasts achieved probably the most success as juniors and isn’t to be taken as a real reflection of how all juniors evaluate to one another.
The rankings are as follows:
11 Factors: Svetlana Boginskaya
9 Factors: Viktoria Komova
8 Factors: Tamara Lazakovich
7 Factors: Ecaterina Szabo
6 Factors: Alexandra Marinescu, Daniela Silivas, Elena Levochkina, Giorgia Villa, Svetlana Ivanova
5 Factors: Armine Barutyan, Elena Gurova, Galina Ionas, Karin Janz
4 Factors: Aliya Mustafina, Amelie Morgan, Cristina Bontas, Elena Brazhnikova, Elena Eremina, Kana Yamawaki, Laurie Hernandez, Lavinia Agache, Natalia Karamushka, Rusudan Sikharulidze
The total listing rating the outcomes of 190 complete juniors may be discovered right here.
To clarify the methodology:
I solely used the outcomes from 5 worldwide competitions. I felt it was unfair to make use of home outcomes on the Nationwide Championships degree as a result of completely different WAG packages have various levels of problem on the home degree.
The 5 competitions in query are Druzhba, Worldwide Junior Championships, Junior European Championships, Youth Olympic Video games, and Junior World Championships. The historic significance of those 5 occasions and why I maintain them in excessive regard was a subject I’ve lined in a earlier article.
Utilizing these 5 competitions as a benchmark creates a large bias in favor of European and Japanese gymnasts. That is the explanation for my disclaimer within the introduction of the article that these outcomes aren’t to be taken too severely. There have been few choices to provide a statistical system that didn’t characteristic a bias in favor of 1 explicit area, period, or program.
Be aware: Japan was the everlasting host of the Worldwide Junior Championships which is why Japanese gymnasts carry out exceptionally properly at this competitors and thus the information is skewed of their favor.
One other main impediment is that some iconic gymnasts deliberately select to not take part in excessive profile junior competitions or few junior excessive profile competitions existed in her period. Essentially the most notable instance of that is Nadia Comaneci who competed in a number of dozen competitions as a junior throughout a four-year interval and received almost all of them. However Nadia solely often competed in a significant junior competitors. After simply trouncing the highest juniors as a 12 year-old, Nadia spent the majority of her junior profession competing in opposition to senior-aged gymnasts in competitions that supplied stronger aggressive fields and higher ready her for the 1976 Olympics.
One other challenge with the outcomes was together with the Junior European Championships whereas excluding all different continental championships. This was finished as a result of the Junior European Championships are properly documented with a whole set of outcomes going again to the Seventies, in addition to having outcomes the place one nation didn’t overwhelmingly dominate the ultimate standings as China and america are inclined to do with their respective continental championships.
The information itself counts solely medals received within the All-Round at these 5 competitions, it then makes use of my “factors” system the place I award 3-points for a gold medal, 2-points for silver, and one level for bronze. Within the case of a tie each gymnasts get the complete level complete.
In a second set of knowledge, I did one thing that I’ve by no means finished earlier than. Whereas a gymnast in senior competitors can theoretically compete in an infinite variety of Olympics and World Championships (insert Oksana Chusovitina joke right here), that’s not the case in a junior competitors. Most juniors have such quick careers, they typically seem in just one main junior competitors on the worldwide degree earlier than age limits render them ineligible.
In my information solely 16.8% of All-Round medalists in junior competitors received All-Round medals in two completely different competitions. Whereas on the senior degree that determine is considerably greater at 38.1% of All-Round medalists undertaking the identical feat.
To account for this, I created a second set of knowledge the place I took the “factors” information and added a multiplier system the place I multiplied the variety of factors every WAG has by the variety of completely different competitions she received an All-Round medal at. Successful an All-Round bronze in two completely different competitions is thus superior to successful an All-Round gold medal in only one competitors.
The rationale for this was that Olga Mostepanova received two All-Round medals at Druzhba and the Junior European Championships that are the 2 most troublesome junior competitions to win an All-Round medal at. However she was decrease within the rankings than gymnasts who received solely a single All-Round gold medal on the Worldwide Junior Championships which generally has a weaker aggressive discipline.
For that reason, I felt a multiplier was essential to rectify this disparity and provides a extra correct reflection as to who the very best juniors in WAG historical past actually have been. On the junior degree amount is commonly a greater indicator of future success than high quality. In the event you have been to decide on between a junior gymnast who has two All-Round bronze medals or one with simply single All-Round gold medal, the gymnast with extra medals (of decrease worth) is statistically extra prone to obtain success on the senior degree.
Out of 190 gymnasts within the information, 32 of them received All-Round medals in a number of junior-level competitions and thus gained spots because of the multiplier rule. Of these 32 gymnasts, 72% of them went on to win medals on the senior degree in World Championships and/or Olympic competitors. Of the 28% who didn’t, almost all of them have been Soviet juniors who failed to take action solely as a result of the USSR program had a lot depth they have been prevented from showing in a significant senior-level competitors.
It will possibly’t be emphasised sufficient that it isn’t the kind of medal a junior gymnast wins, however how typically she is ready to be able to win medals that greatest signifies whether or not she is going to turn out to be a future star. Therefore the explanation I utilized the multiplier rule and why I really feel it’s a vital enchancment.
The information with the multiplier rule included may be discovered right here.
Household Relations
There are solely 4 Bulgarian gymnasts within the information out of a complete of 190 gymnasts. However for 2 of these 4, they’re mom/daughter. The gymnasts in query are Maya Blagoeva and Silvia Mitova.
There’s one different “household relation” within the information. Russian gymnasts Natalia Ziganshina and her sister Gulnara Ziganshina each received junior All-Round medals.
Viktoria Komova actually was one of many strongest juniors the game had seen in many years and I hope this text supplies higher understanding as to why she was so extremely touted getting into the 2011 World Championships and 2012 Olympics.
Concluding Ideas
Of the 4 highest rating junior gymnasts on this information, all 4 of them achieved main success in senior competitors. All 4 of them (Komova, Boginskaya, Lazakovich, and Szabo) received an All-Round medal on the Olympics and mix for 16 complete Olympic medals.
I’m strongly contemplating increasing the information to incorporate Junior medals received in Occasion Finals in addition to upgrading Jesolo to turn out to be the sixth “main” junior competitors.
Assertion on Ukraine
This text was created as a direct response because of the outbreak of battle in Ukraine. There are two Soviet-Ukrainian gymnasts who have been excessive rating juniors that hail from cities which have been deeply impacted by the combating. The primary is Svetlana Ivanova who at the moment lives in Germany, however is from Mariupol. The opposite is Natalia Karamushka who’s from Kharkiv and at the moment lives there.
These two cities have borne the worst of the combating. Kharkiv is positioned simply 20 miles from the Russian border. Regardless of struggling heavy combating from virtually the very first day of the battle, remarkably it continues to carry out. I’ve no data concerning Natalia Karamushka’s present whereabouts or standing.
Mariupol is the worst place to be in all of Ukraine proper now. The town has been encircled and minimize off from the remainder of Ukraine. It’s at the moment experiencing a brutal siege that has triggered a humanitarian disaster ensuing within the deaths of lots of of civilians every day. Whereas Svetlana Ivanova is protected in Germany, she has been unable to contact her household in Mariupol for the reason that siege started ten days in the past. Kharkiv is the town the place Ukrainians have been struggling the longest. Muripol is the town the place Ukrainians have been struggling the worst.
On account of these developments, Natalia Karamushka and Svetlana Ivanova have been on my thoughts as of late. Which has since given me the inspiration to speak about their standing as excessive rating juniors and I wished to provide an article that supplied the right context as to simply how profitable these two gymnasts have been, the cities they characterize, and the nation they name residence.
