RosterResource Chat – 11/22/24

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the first-ever RosterResource Stay Chat at FanGraphs! A minimum of considered one of us (normally each) can be doing this each Friday presently.

For those who’re acquainted with me or Jon, I feel you recognize that we take pleasure in speaking about something roster-related and can all the time attempt to give a considerate reply to any query. That’s not all the time splendid for a reside chat the place you need to reply as many questions as attainable. However having each of us right here will permit us to nonetheless do this as a lot as attainable as we alternate answering questions.

And right here we go …

Jon Becker: Hi there and welcome everybody! Let’s get going with our first query…

Kate: Braves appeared to favor Grant Holmes to a variety of these different backend rotation choices all through the second half final 12 months.  You all are pondering that adjustments over the offseason?

Jon Becker: So I feel that is much less about Holmes in a vacuum and extra about Holmes in comparison with Anderson and Canning (the primary three rotation spots are locked in). They’re all out of choices, and Holmes is the one of many three with bullpen expertise, and he was nice in that position final 12 months.

Jason Martinez: Holmes earned a spot on the roster and his versatility provides the Braves an opportunity to discover the market in the course of the offseason and in addition give their younger guys a glance within the spring. However looks as if he’s locked in as considered one of their 13 pitchers.

diadem: Is Johan Rojas’ .246 BA sufficient to maintain him taking part in? Platoon? vL or vR?

Jason Martinez: It was reported a couple of minutes in the past that Austin Hays can be non-tendered in order that clears issues up a bit for the second. However I don’t assume the Phillies need to go into 2025 relying on Rojas for greater than 300-350 PA. I feel they’re going all in on Soto and, in the event that they fall brief, would nonetheless pursue one other influence bat and push Rojas to 4th OF or AAA.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: What’s the rule now on assured cash for arbitration-eligible gamers who’re tendered contracts? If the crew tenders a contract, is any cash assured, or can the crew lower the participant with out penalty earlier than arbitration? How about after arbitration — is the contract assured then, and if that’s the case, how a lot?

Jon Becker: Nice nuts and bolts query, proper up my alley! If a participant is tendered a contract at the moment, then the crew has to conform to a contract with him for 2025, both by agreeing by the deadline (January 10) or going to an arbitration listening to. Below the brand new CBA, contracts agreed to with no listening to are totally assured on the level of signing, however contracts determined by way of listening to aren’t totally assured. We noticed this final 12 months with J.D. Davis, who the Giants took to arbitration and have been capable of launch after they signed Matt Chapman, owing him simply 30 days of termination pay as a substitute of the complete contract.

drhotdog: been debating this with different angels followers – when do you assume Christian Moore will get referred to as up?  when do you assume he ought to?

Jason Martinez: Primarily based on how rapidly they promoted Schanuel and Neto, there was hypothesis that Moore would get to the majors in 2024 earlier than he obtained harm. I nonetheless assume they plan on being aggressive, nevertheless it’s extra doubtless that his ETA is nearer to mid-2025 now. In fact, he can change that if he’s crushing the ball in AAA.

Justin: What do you guys make of Profar’s market? Is he a lock to return to SD or do you assume an org provides him a giant contract?

Jon Becker: The contract predictions I’ve seen for him are nearly all within the vary of $45-$48 million for 3 years, and if that’s all it takes I feel there’ll be fairly widespread curiosity. That mentioned, if the Padres are proper there with everybody else (not a certain factor contemplating their payroll) I’d be stunned if he went elsewhere.

Invoice: Marte get 1st likelihood at 3b for reds? Or are they purchasing?

Jason Martinez: I’ve already been requested about my Opening Day projection a number of instances … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/reds … as a result of I’ve Santiago Espinal at 3B and Marte in AAA. That speaks extra to Marte not doing sufficient to be penciled into the Opening Day roster and Espinal being the lone potential “stop-gap” if he doesn’t get non-tendered at the moment. Possibly Jeimer performs 3B however protection is shaky. Primarily based on that, you recognize what I feel. They’re on the lookout for an improve and, even when they nonetheless imagine in Marte, will make him earn the job by placing up huge numbers in AAA.

Keaton Arneson: If I may solely draft one Cleveland minor leaguer SP for this season solely who would it not be? Nikhazy, Messick, Wilkinson, or Peterson?

Jon Becker: Except I’ve obtained important cause to imagine in any other case, I all the time aspect with the high-level man on the 40-man, which might be Nikhazy. Actually doesn’t harm he had a very sturdy season, too.

Jason Martinez: I say it’s important to go along with the man nicknamed “Tugboat”.

Sox Fan: Pink Sox bundle for Crochet and/or different SP commerce targets?

Jason Martinez: I feel they’ve nearly as good of an opportunity as any crew on the market. Appears like they’re going to go huge in free company and don’t essentially have a transparent path for any of the “Huge 4” (Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Campbell). You most likely want 2 elite prospects to headline a bundle for Crochet and the Pink Sox are one of many few groups to have the ability to do this and never subtract from their MLB roster.

GA Blood: The Reds mentioned they need Steer to spend extra time on the infield subsequent 12 months. Any pontifications on how his positional breakdown would find yourself trying?

Jon Becker: This ties in properly with the Noelvi Marte query we obtained earlier: relying on how the offseason shakes out, it’s attainable they slide Steer again to 3rd and Marte’s obtained to earn taking part in time elsewhere. One other risk is Matt McLain shifting to the outfield, the place he performed some within the AFL, and Steer slotting in at second.

Jon Becker: Proper now, we’ve nearly all of Steer’s PT in left, based mostly extra on positional want: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?place=ALL&teamid=18

Colton: Assume the Pirates begin the season with Bubba on the roster? Now that they’ve misplaced the decide with Skenes not beginning the 12 months there

Jason Martinez: I don’t assume so. Not getting the draft decide will make them assume twice, however they’ve 5-6 good starters now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … and I’d assume they’ll simply comply with the identical plan as Skenes in 2024. So perhaps a month in AAA and see how issues shake out. In fact, Jared Jones compelled his manner onto the Opening Day roster due to how dominant he was in spring. However I feel Falter and Ortiz have earned the possibility to a minimum of begin the season within the rotation.

Kate: Playing cards give Nootbaar one other shot as an on a regular basis man or is he a platoon bat going ahead?

Jon Becker: Nootbaar’s all the time greater than held his personal in opposition to lefties (he was really higher in opposition to them by wRC+ this 12 months), and with 2025 being a rebuild/retool/reload/no matter you need to name it, there’s no cause to platoon him, neither is there a terrific platoon accomplice for him within the org proper now anyway.

alexis anthopolous: SS is an apparent spot for enchancment for the braves, and there’s loads of Adames/Kim hyperlinks, however who’re some viable commerce candidates?

Jason Martinez: I feel the Pink Sox are going huge this offseason in free company however I’m wondering if buying and selling Trevor Story to clear some wage could be a part of that plan. It labored out with that Chris Sale man so perhaps ATL would have an interest.

Jon Becker: Jorge Mateo is an alternative choice if his elbow surgical procedure restoration goes okay, and the Twins may properly store Carlos Correa, although they’d should eat some money.

Sox Fan: The place does Juan Soto land and a contact prediction?

Jon Becker: I’m on the Mets prepare just because they’ll and presumably will supply probably the most cash, and I don’t foresee him a reduction of probably tens of tens of millions to return to the Yankees. I’ve his contract at a really aggressive 15y/$692M, and I feel he clears $600M no drawback.

Jason Martinez: I agree with Jon. I feel Steve Cohen is keen to outbid everybody. Whether or not he clears $600M or $700M will rely upon how aggressive different groups can be.

Matt: What sort of contract do y’all assume Hyeseong Kim will get?

Jason Martinez: My guess is 4-yr, $64M. I feel he will get greater than $15M per season due to how good he was in 2023. Took a step again in 2024, which is why I feel it will likely be lower than 5 years. However there are simply not that many good shortstops on the market and solely 2 free brokers. And that helps his case loads.

Oh sorry!!! I assumed you have been asking about Ha-Seong!. Studying these too rapidly.

Jon Becker: Yeah, I feel that’s about proper for Ha-seong (backloaded with an decide out since he had shoulder surgical procedure, maybe?), although if I want a shortstop badly on opening day I’d relatively be aggressive for Adames, after all. As for Hyeseong Kim (no relation, however they did play collectively!), I feel he does fairly much like Ha-seong’s first MLB contract of 4y/$28M, perhaps rather less since he’s obtained loads much less energy potential.

Adam: Will the Phillies really “shake up the roster” like they mentioned? If that’s the case, who do you see them buying and selling/shifting?

Jon Becker: I’m certain they’d love to maneuver Castellanos and Taijuan Walker, although shifting even considered one of them with out consuming a bunch of cash could be fairly miraculous, I’d say. When it comes to gamers who would really garner an fascinating return, I feel Bohm and Stott could possibly be fascinating, perhaps even Ranger Suárez. The one actual untouchables are most likely Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Wheeler, Sánchez, Nola, Realmuto.

Insert Witty Identify Right here: For those who have been the Rox GM, how would you attempt to form the roster in a 5 12 months time-frame?

Jason Martinez: I all the time half-jokingly say that I might love for them to re-create the Blake Avenue Bombers after which I simply begin naming each dude that has plus-plus energy (Gary Sanchez, Gallo, and so forth.) so as to add to their lineup. Even now, as a Padres fan, it looks as if no lead is secure there and their lineup shouldn’t be terrifying in any respect.

In all seriousness, I do assume they’re making an attempt to construct a crew round younger pitching and protection. They weren’t horrible on the finish of final 12 months they usually do have a number of younger guys who’re shut (Dollander) and Marquez/Senzatela are again from TJ surgical procedure.

Jon Becker: Yeah, it looks as if they’re lastly focusing on fascinating strikeout-heavy pitchers like Dollander and Brody Brecht as a substitute of falling in love with each man who throws a sinker. An enormous a part of constructing a crew like that’s figuring out who to present huge contracts or extensions to, they usually’ve had some misses there (Bryant, Szenatela, all of the relievers a few years in the past, and so forth.). The Tovar extension certain appears nice to this point, although.

Jack: Do you assume that if the Pink Sox have been supply Seattle a bundle of Duran and one of many huge 4, almost definitely Mayer, that may lastly get Dipoto to chew on buying and selling considered one of his pitchers?

Jon Becker: Yeah, I’ve seen Duran-for-[insert non-Castillo starter here] bandied about as a hypothetical however I don’t assume that might fairly sway Dipoto to even contemplate that a lot in any respect. in the event you’re providing one man who’s a lineup pillar proper now and one other who could possibly be one as quickly as midseason, I’d have a harder time saying no.

Lawless: How rapidly does Jordan Lawlar rise up and may he keep at SS or transfer to 3B?

Jason Martinez: I feel he’s the kind of prospect {that a} crew will make house for as soon as he reveals that he’s prepared. Bringing Suarez again buys them some extra time in case he’s not, however I can see a state of affairs the place he takes over at SS and Perdomo strikes right into a bench position. Or if the Dbacks actually love Perdomo an excessive amount of at SS, perhaps Suarez strikes into extra of a 1B/3B/DH position sooner or later and Lawlar performs 3B on most days.

mariners man: Josh Rojas non-tender — you want?

Jon Becker: We’ve gotten a few questions on Rojas particularly, and he’s an excellent instance about why the non-tender deadline being this early within the offseason makes for some robust selections. He’s a wonderfully enough — if uninspiring — common, however in non-tendering him now you run the danger of hanging out on different choices and never having the ability to do significantly better. Having Austin Shenton round helps, although, so I may see this one going both manner forward of the 8 EST deadline.

diadem: Will Rodriguez and Bart break up duties in 2025? What % of taking part in time for every.

Jason Martinez: In case anybody doesn’t keep in mind, Endy Rodriguez was on monitor to be the Pirates’ beginning catcher in 2024 earlier than injuring his elbow final winter. And he can hit! So it will likely be good to have him again. However with Bart trying like an excellent choice to play a majority of video games at catcher, they’ll ease Rodriguez again. So long as there may be some uncertainty at 1B/DH, they need to have the flexibility to play each much more than some catching tandems. However I can see a 50/50 break up so long as Endy is wholesome with each getting DH at-bats.

Jon Becker: We simply obtained a query in about Henry Davis and it additionally ties again to an earlier query about commerce candidate catchers: Davis undoubtedly is one. Could possibly be a reverse-Joey Bart the place Davis himself finds much more success away from Pittsburgh.

Visitor: What’s your evaluation of the Angels’ strikes this offseason to this point?  They’ve been very energetic, however seemingly with none influence.

Jon Becker: That is mainly the Angels’ M.O. for latest offseasons, going for names over expertise, although a minimum of with Newman, Hendricks, and d’Arnaud they’re not likely taking taking part in time away from somebody extra fascinating. Locking Soler in on day one of many offseason was … fascinating … although.

#1MetsFan: What number of ABs does Ronnie Mauricio get in 2025? O/U 200.5

Jason Martinez: I’ll go along with the “over”, though I don’t assume they’re going to plan their offseason round him being a giant a part of the crew. However essential to recollect, previous to his harm, that he’s such an excellent prospect that there was discuss shifting him to 2B, 3B, or LF simply to get him within the lineup. I feel he must re-establish himself in AAA after which he may drive himself into the image once more.

Jon Becker: I’ll take the over, solely as a result of it’s such a protracted season. Have a troublesome time seeing him crack the Opening Day roster assuming the Mets are as aggressive as we count on, although.

Jon Becker: And with that, we’re all set for this week! Thanks everybody for stopping by and we’ll see you subsequent Friday. Wishing a Blissful Thanksgiving to those that rejoice!

Jason Martinez: We’re going to wrap it up for at the moment since Jon and I’ll have a busy afternoon updating rosters and payrolls as soon as non-tenders are introduced. Usually, I feel 90 minutes is feasible on most Fridays.

Thanks for becoming a member of us and keep in mind which you could all the time ship us questions on BlueSky (rosterresource.fangraphs.com / @jon-becker.com) or Twitter (@JasonRRMartinez / @jonbecker_).