RosterResource Chat – 11/29/24

Jason Martinez: Welcome to our 2nd RosterResource Reside Chat! Thanks for becoming a member of us. Not lots has occurred since final week apart from the Snell/Kikuchi signings and largely unsurprising non-tenders. Nonetheless a number of enjoyable matters to debate. Right here we go …

Matt: Bellinger opting in has put a little bit of a wrinkle into Jed’s offseason plans. If you happen to have been Hoyer, how would you method bettering the offense , whereas making an attempt to present some room for a few of their top-100,guys to emerge?

Jon Becker: This definitely wasn’t preferrred for Hoyer, who will surely moderately have the Bellinger cash to spend elsewhere, to not point out the plate appearances. Enhancing the offense can be powerful exterior of simply hoping for inner enhancements — the apparent lane for that will have been to commerce Hoerner, however his surgical procedure complicates issues — or buying and selling Bellinger himself (additionally troublesome!). A catcher with offensive upside (Sánchez, Higashioka, and so forth.) to pair with Amaya is the one place they will add a starter with out buying and selling another person.

NT: Have heard nothing concerning the Twins. The place do you suppose they should improve and the way do you suppose they do it? Any likelihood of a Correa commerce in your estimation?

Jason Martinez: I don’t suppose Correa can be traded. Would take a number of creativity and both the Twins consuming a number of $ or taking over one other huge contract in return. And that’s powerful to do. Would like to see it. I feel there are a couple of others groups in the identical boat.

They’ve to determine a method to construct a workforce that’s aggressive whereas not relying on Correa/Buxton/Lewis. And something these guys can contribute is a bonus. Brooks Lee and a few of the different children stepping up can be big. Similar with pitching. A lot of children who can take the subsequent step.

Jon Becker: It’s positively going to be a quiet offseason for them, a lot in order that it wouldn’t in any respect shock me to see them rank thirtieth in FA spending. Inside enhancements + including on the margins (RH OF, a lefty reliever) will in all probability be about it for them.

TD: How do you suppose the Padres will method the low season, contemplating that they’re at present up in opposition to the posh tax?

Jon Becker: They don’t have a Juan Soto-level contract to maneuver to concurrently decrease payroll and infuse expertise; Arraez wouldn’t convey again all that a lot, Cronenworth and Bogaerts are near un-trade-able, and so forth. I feel they principally should decide to being a luxurious tax payor since we have already got them projected at $3M over (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/padres) and so they desperately want a catcher and left fielder, at minimal.

Visitor: Has there been any dialogue about assuming much less optimistic PAs within the Depth Chart projections? If that’s the case, what’s the reasoning for this assumption?

Jason Martinez: I really like discussing this matter however that is in all probability not one of the best place to present one of the best reply. Higher for extra particular gamers. However I’ll say that they are often much less optimistic for beginning pitching prospects. That’s as a result of we solely venture 100% despite the fact that it ought to be extra like 125% simply because we all know for positive there can be accidents. We simply can’t assume who will get harm. For place gamers, I feel they are often too optimistic as a result of my definition of “injury-prone” could be completely different than others.

So I’d take a look at it the pitchers extra like a depth chart order. Who’s subsequent in line if one of many prime 5 is out for the season? For place gamers, when ought to Royce Lewis be thought-about “injury-prone” and penciled in for 75-80% as an alternative of 85-90%? He was 25 years previous final season and had a couple of freak accidents so I didn’t suppose he was “injury-prone” but. I used to be in all probability flawed.

BuccoFan: Do you agree that the Pirates could be higher off spending $30M on one or two distinction makers, as an alternative on 6 or 7 guys that inevitably will end round substitute degree?

Jon Becker: Undoubtedly, sure. The pitching appears to be like fairly good however they badly want an precise menace in the midst of the lineup, not one other Grandal + Taylor + Tellez “let’s hope for enhancements” offseason. Bringing McCutchen again really feel like a given and together with that I’d look into FA like Walker, Santander, and O’Neill, if I used to be Ben Cherington.

MilledgeReport: The Cardinals chosen Tink Therefore’s contract from AA this week. Do you guys anticipate he makes his MLB debut this yr, or is he somebody who wants extra time increase innings within the minors?

Jason Martinez: He’s proficient sufficient to pressure his method into the combo. However I doubt the Cardinals are relying on it. Solely 79.2 IP final season. Perhaps he can attain 130 IP this season. If that’s the case, do they bring about him up early till they should shut him down? Do they bring about him alongside very slowly in case he might help them within the 2nd half? Too many unknowns for the Cardinals to imagine both of these situations. I feel they simply hope he continues to progress and never fear about when to name him up.

Jon Becker: I additionally don’t suppose “wants extra time increase innings” and “makes his MLB debut” should be mutually unique both. Taking a look at how the White Sox dealt with Crochet down the stretch, the Cardinals may name Therefore up when rosters broaden to get him on an every-fifth-day schedule, however restrict him to a few innings apiece.

Visitor: Have the Dodgers fully given up on Lux as a SS?

Jon Becker: It wouldn’t shock me if they provide him a shot there in Spring Coaching, however the throwing actually did look tough earlier than they flipped him and Betts on the very finish of Spring Coaching this previous season. Having the ability to platoon at quick with Rojas and having Betts play 2B, the place he’d higher, would make issues simpler for positive. Or they may simply signal Adames, after all.

White Sox: Any explicit low value free brokers that will be into some enjoying time? Crochet possible fetching two High 100s?

Jason Martinez: 2 High 100 prospects is what it will take to begin a dialog. Pink Sox should be the favourite however I feel there are a couple of different groups who could be keen.

Free Agent market is stuffed with these low-cost veterans … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker

However why would they wish to play for the White Sox? Provided that it’s their greatest likelihood at common enjoying time. I feel there’s room for 2 bats (OF/DH), 2 SP, and some RPs.  Perhaps a David Peralta or Randal Grichuk. Perhaps a Cal Quantrill or Griffin Canning.

Jon Becker: I’ll additionally throw Sócrates Brito in there, solely as a result of Jon Heyman reported this morning he’s getting MLB curiosity, and veterans getting back from the KBO is enjoyable!

Seattle_54percenters: What reasonable choices for Mariners at 3B, 2B, and 1B/DH? Possession prefers earnings to successful sadly:/

Jon Becker: I completely get why folks wish to tie them to gamers like Alonso and Bregman, however Dipoto and possession have simply by no means operated in that stratosphere for FA. I do suppose they’ll nonetheless be some good gamers, although. Gleyber, Profar, Joc, Conforto come to thoughts, and so they’ve bought reported curiosity in a reunion with Justin Turner or Carlos Santana.

Matt (Oceanside): I noticed you could have Mookie listed because the Dodgers beginning SS. Along with his poor metrics there final season after the shock swap from second. He had spent all of the final offseason prepping for a return to 2B- doesn’t that counsel that 2B is his most blatant place and both buying and selling Lux or making an attempt Lux once more at SS after an extended time away from the knee surgical procedures?

Jason Martinez: It’s a kind of tough issues to speak on the RR Opening Day roster projection. Mookie is enjoying infield. We all know that for positive. And I don’t suppose they’re going to present Lux one other likelihood at SS, largely as a result of they’re the Dodgers and so they don’t have to enter the season with that degree of uncertainty at an essential spot. So what that projection tells you is that they don’t have their beginning SS on the roster presently.

The Ultimate Boss: Excessive Faculty Reunion in Boston? Giolito + Fried and Flaherty?

Jon Becker: Undoubtedly believable contemplating they’ve been related to only about each huge FA, and in the event that they don’t get Soto (or even when they do, I suppose) I may see them going huge for one or two vital SP. Must share the within jokes with Houck and Bello, although.

friday scaries: Tim Tawa and Joe Elbis struck me as attention-grabbing 40 man additions for a probable playoff contender, what do you make of them?

Jason Martinez: Tawa has put up good offensive numbers within the higher minors and he can play a number of positions (INF and OF). So I feel he’s only a man who would possible be well-liked within the R5 draft and the Dbacks didn’t wish to lose him. Elbis might be in an analogous place. Not a prime prospect with the big-time arm, however appears to be like like he has good command and groups may in all probability see him as a succesful lengthy reliever in 2025.

Matt: Suppose Cubs extra more likely to go FA signing of vet with out QO hooked up , in an effort to improve SP, or will they give the impression of being to commerce mkt(SEA?)?

Jon Becker: If they will line up with the White Sox for Crochet or the Mariners for a starter, they definitely have the upper-level affect prospects to make a commerce really feel just like the “simpler” lane. In the event that they’re not desirous about starters with QOs hooked up, the one prime of the rotation (or near it) choices are Flaherty, Eovaldi, or an upside play on Bieber, who received’t be prepared for the beginning of the season.

David Stearns: Prediction on who the Mets signal this offseason? Is also Taylor actually gonna begin over Siri?

Jason Martinez: I do know it in all probability looks as if Siri would begin in CF, however he was actually, actually, actually unhealthy in 2024. And in lots of components of earlier seasons. And Taylor was excellent whereas enjoying repeatedly on the finish of the season. I don’t suppose both will begin, although.

Jon and I each predicted final week that Soto would signal with the Mets, which might possible push Nimmo to CF. And in the event that they fall quick on Soto, I feel they’ll get somebody like Teoscar or Santander. I additionally suppose they’re going to re-sign Pete Alonso. Cohen isn’t messing round this offseason.

Jon Becker: And even when that is the outfielders they’ve bought going into the season, I don’t suppose one’s going to play far more than the opposite. Siri hit fastballs higher than Taylor, Taylor hit all the pieces else higher, Marte will want days off, and so forth. If/after they do add, there are nonetheless going to be loads of PAs to go round, too.

Rywe: What do you suppose the Giants plan to do that offseason contemplating they’ve publicly stated they’re reducing payroll for 2025? I doubt Buster is gonna break the financial institution for a high-tier free agent and the Giants have so many holes to fill (SP, SS, 2B)

Jon Becker: The payroll reducing takes them out of the operating for Soto, with whom they didn’t even meet, nevertheless it received’t forestall them from a lot else. They’ve nonetheless bought about $50M to spend earlier than hitting 2024’s payroll, and there’s lots you are able to do with that (Adames + Fried are in all probability someplace round there in mixed AAV, for instance, not that I anticipate them to try this). They may commerce Yaz to clear up some outfield enjoying time (and money) or commerce Wade and go greater for Alonso or Walker with loads of room to nonetheless say they lower payroll.

Rywe: What position does Tyler Fitzgerald have this yr? He was subpar at SS final season however satisfactory at 2B. Utility man that fills in on off days for Jung-Hoo Lee?

Jason Martinez: Looks like essentially the most logical spot is 2B. Perhaps 1B in the event that they commerce LaMonte Wade Jr. He is also a Zobrist-type utilityman that performs on a regular basis at 4-5 completely different spots. But when they don’t get Adames or Kim, they may have to stay with him at SS.

Doc Estes: Do you could have a couple of favourite post-hype prospects that will make a big affect in 2025?

Jon Becker: Does Jackson Holliday rely as post-hype but? Issues couldn’t have gone a lot worse for him on the plate, and he regarded fairly tough at second base, too, however the toe faucet he labored in over the past week of the season appeared to work out properly. I don’t suppose the O’s are going to amass anybody to dam him, both.

Jonathan: The place will Juan Soto be enjoying in 2025?

Jason Martinez: As I discussed a couple of questions in the past, Jon and I each predicted NYM in final week’s chat. However, realistically, why would he signal with any workforce apart from the Dodgers, Mets, or Yankees? Phillies in all probability belong in that group, as properly. He’s going to signal a 15-year deal and he is aware of that these groups are going to attempt to win yearly. Pink Sox may persuade him that they’ll do the identical. Perhaps the Blue Jays. May the Nats persuade him that they plan to spend $ and be aggressive for the subsequent 15 years? Perhaps. However he’s Juan Soto. He doesn’t should go along with “possibly”. He is aware of the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees are going to spend each offseason to construct round him.

Jon Becker: That’s an enormous a part of why I don’t suppose the Blue Jays have a lot of a shot except they blow all the opposite provides out of the water, which I don’t suppose goes to occur, both. The promoting level is… the final yr of Vlad Jr. and a potentially-closing window with out a lot in the best way of prospects on the best way?

Coach73: May You speculate on the groups that might use Gleyber torres?

Jon Becker: I feel there’ll be fairly widespread curiosity in him as a bounce again choice, despite the fact that he’s restricted to 2B and isn’t notably good at enjoying there, both. I discussed the Mariners earlier however the Pink Sox additionally make a number of sense, and the Blue Jays are reportedly , too. Perhaps somebody just like the Marlins jumps in for a one-year supply if the multi-year contract provides aren’t trying nice.

Blair: What SP will the Mets attempt to purchase through commerce? Is Luis Castillo a sensible choice?

Jason Martinez: The Mariners are one of many few groups that may afford to commerce considered one of their greatest beginning pitchers so I feel it’s reasonable. However, even then, beginning rotation is the explanation they’re a legit contender each season so possibly they simply don’t wish to subtract from that. One potential very attention-grabbing commerce choice, in my view, might be Dylan Stop if the Padres are handcuffed financially this offseason. The value for beginning pitchers is loopy excessive and Stop could be reasonably priced at round $13-14MM for one season.

Jon Becker: I uncared for to say Stop earlier once I stated they don’t have a Soto-level contract/participant to commerce, and Stop definitely isn’t that, however he would convey again fairly the return. They may then flip round and signal an honest starter for half as a lot. Martín Pérez pitched properly there after the commerce, for instance.

Matt: Which of Cubs prepared or near-ready prospects deserve a legit shot this yr?

Jon Becker: Assuming well being I feel we’ll see Matt Shaw in some unspecified time in the future this yr, possibly early on Hoerner has a setback or the offense isn’t clicking. Ballesteros is one other one who may get the decision if Amaya/Thaiss are the 2 catchers and aren’t hitting. On the pitching facet, a wholesome Cade Horton in all probability debuts in some unspecified time in the future, too.

Ben: I’ve questioned this for therefore lengthy however how are the ability rankings measured on RR? I may by no means discover an correct correlation with WAR so I by no means knew.

Jason Martinez: For batters, it’s in all probability nearer to wRC+ as a result of there is no such thing as a protection included within the method. After which the difficult half is to steadiness out counting stats and fee stats so small-sample measurement doesn’t get weighted too closely. After I created it a very long time in the past, the purpose was so {that a} reader may simply get a normal concept of whether or not a participant was having season (general or final 7/14 days) or not after which analysis additional if essential. I feel it really works properly for that.

Eric: If the Mets signal Juan Soto, do you anticipate them to match their 2024 payroll in 2025 by frequently including?

Jon Becker: Even should you determine Soto’s at $50M/yr, spending one other ~$125M on prime of that feels actually, actually arduous, however not not possible. Going aggressive on the rotation (Burnes + Manaea + Flaherty, or one thing like that) continues to be solely $75M or so.

Coach73: Do you see jonathan aranda making an affect this yr?

Jason Martinez: Sure, I do. That is his make-or-break season, in my view. He’s out of choices and the Rays haven’t actually given him a lot of a possibility. And accidents haven’t helped. As of now, I’ve him penciled in to the beginning lineup … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/rays

I’d love for the Padres to amass him, which is feasible if the Rays don’t actually consider in him as an on a regular basis man. After all, I feel the Padres are obligated to have a couple of gamers from Tijuana on their roster. Tirso Ornelas, Alejandro Kirk, and Aranda would match that purpose for me.

Jason Martinez: Gonna wrap it up now. We’ll be again for an additional chat subsequent Friday on the similar time. Have a fantastic weekend!

Jon Becker: Thanks for stopping by, everybody!