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If you happen to’re a fan of Beyer Pace Figures or Brisnet Pace rankings, you realize which horse you’ll be betting to win Saturday’s $250,000, Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct.
Beyer Pace Figures and Brisnet Pace rankings each search the identical purpose: to match the pace of racehorses who compete throughout totally different distances, tracks, and days. Many components can affect the uncooked time of a horse race, so Beyer Pace Figures and Brisnet Pace rankings try and calculate the influence of these components and convert uncooked occasions into numbers (85, 88, 97, 104 and so forth.) that may be in contrast no matter circumstances. The upper the quantity, the higher.
It’s a difficult process, made much more sophisticated by the very fact racehorses routinely enhance or regress from one race to the following. However once you’re handicapping a horse race and a number of pace determine scales recommend one horse is quicker than the others, there’s a superb likelihood you’re trying on the most definitely winner.
Such is the case within the Remsen, a 1 1/8-mile Street to the Kentucky Derby qualifier awarding 10-5-3-2-1 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve factors to the highest 5 finishers. Each the Beyer and Brisnet scales point out #5 Keewaydin is the quickest entrant, so he have to be rated because the horse to beat.
Conditioned by four-time Eclipse Award-winning coach Chad Brown, Keewaydin debuted on Aug. 24 in a maiden particular weight sprinting three-quarters of a mile at Saratoga. After settling a few lengths off the tempo in third place, Keewaydin closed floor gamely to complete third by a neck. Already two of the opposite entrants from that debut race have come again to carry out properly on the Street to the Kentucky Derby: the victorious Tip High Thomas completed second within the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, whereas fourth-place finisher Sovereignty (overwhelmed by three lengths by Keewaydin) received the Grade 3 Avenue Sense Stakes.
Unsurprisingly, Keewaydin received his second begin with out a lot problem. Favored at odds of 1-5 to win a maiden particular weight dashing seven-eighths of a mile at Aqueduct, Keewaydin dueled for the early lead, opened up a three-length benefit in early stretch, and completed up strongly (working his remaining eighth of a mile in :12.10) to prevail by 1 3/4 lengths. The runner-up pulled 10 lengths away from the remainder.
Keewaydin hit the end line within the snappy time of 1:22.09, a wonderful clocking that earned a 92 Brisnet Pace ranking (one level decrease than the 93 he posted on debut) and a 91 Beyer Pace Determine. Not one of the different Remsen entrants have posted a quantity within the 90s on both scale.
If there’s one doable vulnerability with Keewaydin, it’s the very fact the Remsen is a quarter-mile longer than Keewaydin’s final race, and his pedigree (by Instagrand out of a mare by Officer) is geared extra towards pace than stamina. However on the intense facet, the Remsen isn’t overly filled with tempo, so Keewaydin ought to have each alternative to set or press a modest tempo and carry his pace the total 1 1/8-mile distance.
There’s one different constructive in Keewaydin’s nook: he’ll be ridden by scorching jockey Dylan Davis. In keeping with Brisnet statistics, during the last 60 days Davis has received at an outstanding 42% charge when teaming up with Brown.
For all these causes, we advocate betting Keewaydin to win the Remsen. Your technique doesn’t should be sophisticated; with luck you’ll be capable of at the very least double your cash with a win guess.
However if you wish to make investments a bit extra capital and shoot for an even bigger payoff, why not add a trifecta guess, which requires deciding on the highest three finishers so as? By enjoying Keewaydin on prime and utilizing #1 Tux and #4 Studlydoright for second and third place, it’s best to have each likelihood to money a successful ticket.
Studlydoright is probably the most achieved horse within the Remsen area. Twice he’s received on the stakes stage, taking the Tremont Stakes by 1 3/4 lengths and the Nashua Stakes by half a size. The latter victory got here racing one mile at Aqueduct final month, and stretching out over 1 1/8 miles shouldn’t be a difficulty for Studlydoright since he’s a son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of a mare by two-time Horse of the Yr Curlin.
Tux isn’t almost as skilled as Studlydoright however he made a pleasant first impression when dominating a maiden particular weight dash at Aqueduct final month by 3 1/2 lengths. The son of Tapit has a robust likelihood to run as properly or higher whereas stretching out in distance for Corridor of Fame coach Invoice Mott, who wins at a 20% charge in graded stakes per Brisnet statistics.
Wagering Technique on a $10 Price range
$10 to win on #5 Keewaydin
What to say on the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 7, $10 to win on 5
Wagering Technique on a $30 Price range
$18 to win on #5 Keewaydin
What to say on the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 7, $18 to win on 5
$6 trifecta: 5 with 1,4 with 1,4 (whole price $12)
What to say on the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 7, $6 trifecta 5 with 1,4 with 1,4
Good luck, and benefit from the race!
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