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Thursday, October 3, 2024

The Prime 15 Hitters within the 2024 MLB Draft Class


Jac Caglianone enjoying for Florida; CC by License 2.0

The Drummey Angle is again persevering with our protection of the 2024 MLB draft. Earlier this week, we launched our high 15 pitchers on this class, and at the moment we’ll be dropping our high 15 hitters. The category is dominated by school expertise on the high, with solely 2 prep hitters cracking our checklist this 12 months. On the checklist, you’ll discover names like Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon, and Braden Montgomery who make up our high 3. Milan Prevander and Perry Nadreau are right here to supply full stories on all 15 hitters because the draft is now formally lower than every week away.

  1. Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State, 6’0” 199lbs

This 12 months is not like most in that there’s really no clear reduce high prospect. Whereas there are a variety of attractive gamers, none of them are full sufficient to warrant the hype that number-one picks have acquired in previous years. Bazzana, an Australian native, seems to be the preferred possibility and is who we’re going with right here. Bazzana did every thing you would’ve hoped for and extra this season in Corvallis, hitting to the tune of a .572 OBP and .608 wOBA. The offensive profile is about as superior as you would hope for a university hitter. Bazzana is one in all only a few newbie gamers I’d be comfy assigning a 60 to for each hit software and energy. Travis has proven astronomically higher plate self-discipline than his friends on the high of this class main main league scouts to place confidence in the power of his skillset to translate to the professional stage. His method permits him to get himself into good counts and hunt fastballs, the place he’s been capable of do injury. He has confirmed the power to make pitchers and make himself a particularly troublesome out. Bazzana chases pitches outdoors of the zone at a 13% charge and solely whiffs within the zone at an 11.4% clip, each properly above common. He has a really fast and environment friendly swing, permitting him to place the ball in play and hit the ball onerous. By the school season, Bazzana’s common exit velocity was 95.9 mph (95 mph is taken into account onerous hit). In a draft with a variety of growth or bust gamers, Bazzana gives a very excessive flooring. He may not blossom into the star that he’s able to being, however there’s little cause to doubt that even within the worst-case state of affairs, he’ll be an on a regular basis man within the large leagues. There’s definitely nothing to be blown away defensively, however Bazzana can play an affordable second base and may be capable to be a mean defender there for years. Regardless of the lackluster defensive profile, he’s price a high choice for the superior method and offensive potential. Bazzana needs to be on a quick observe to the large leagues and might be an everyday by Opening Day, 2026.

  1. Charlie Condon, UGA, 3B/OF, 6’6” 216lbs

Condon burst onto the scene in 2023 and adopted that marketing campaign up with a historic season this previous 12 months. The Golden Spikes Award winner, SEC participant of the 12 months, and new BBCOR period residence run chief is now able to convey his explosive offensive toolset to skilled baseball. Condon’s record-breaking 12 months featured a online game triple slash line of .441/.531/1.014 and 37 HRs. The underlying metrics and batted-ball knowledge are simply as spectacular. Whereas the exit velocities are assured to come back down a couple of ticks as he makes the shift over to utilizing a wooden bat, there isn’t a denying that Condon hits the ball very onerous, typically. He posted a ninetieth percentile exit velocity of 111.9 mph, with a max of 118.2. It’s comfortably 70-grade uncooked energy, and it has an opportunity to be an 80-grade software when all is alleged and finished. He’s capable of get to this energy constantly in video games, as proven by his 67% hard-hit charge. He might stand to lift his launch angles a bit, as his common is 14.7 levels and his common on hard-hit balls is 15.8 levels. Even with the marginally beneath optimum launch angles, he was nonetheless capable of publish a powerful .586 xWOBAcon and a .801 xSLG, exhibiting the power he has to constantly produce and do injury on the plate. As with most guys together with his immense uncooked energy, Condon has some self-discipline points, chasing pitches at a 23% clip. Nevertheless, there’s not a ton of swing and miss within the profile, as his in-zone whiff share was solely 10.4% this 12 months. I’d grade the hit software out as a 60 at current. There’s additionally some defensive versatility current right here, as he’s frolicked at third base and the nook outfield, even getting some reps in heart subject through the season. He could find yourself a primary baseman in the long term, however the offensive toolset ought to present lots sufficient worth to make up for the defensive worth. No matter what place he finally ends up enjoying, the bat would be the calling card. I’ve it as a reasonably excessive flooring with a very excessive ceiling. For me, he tasks as an on a regular basis middle-of-the-order bat in his fiftieth percentile consequence, with all-star and MVP-caliber seasons as his ninetieth percentile consequence. He’ll enter professional ball ranked close to the highest of prospect rankings, and I anticipate him to dwell as much as the expectations. 

  1. Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M, 6’2” 220lbs

Montgomery has been the middle of many debates all through everything of this draft cycle. He’s a top-tier athlete who has one of many larger ceilings within the class, however occasional swing-and-miss woes have scared some scouts away solely. Amongst school hitters with over 200 plate appearances, Montgomery ranks first in common exit velocity, coming in at a powerful 98.5 mph. So as to add to that, his ninetieth percentile exit velocity is 110.8 and he had 69% of his hits register as “onerous hit balls” (a minimum of 95 mph). He’s among the many finest within the sport in all of those classes proving that the facility potential is actual. I’d grade his energy as a 65 proper now, nevertheless it might work its approach as much as a 70 if he continues on an upward trajectory. After transferring from Stanford to Texas A&M previous to the 2024 season, many scouts have been to see if there can be any rising pains adjusting from PAC-12 to SEC pitching. Montgomery shortly proved any doubters incorrect and was an enormous a part of the Aggie’s success this 12 months. Whereas Montgomery’s 20.9% strikeout charge wouldn’t be regarding on the skilled stage, some will query if that might be an indicator of future offensive issues. Whereas some concern is cheap, Montgomery’s 17.2% stroll charge, .419 ISO, and .561 xwOBAcon restrict concern. These stats show that his method on the plate is common at worst, he has the power to be a real energy menace, and he generates very spectacular outcomes when he makes contact with the ball. Defensively, Montgomery will possible spend the vast majority of his time in proper subject the place he has common vary. The previous pitcher’s arm is plus plus and he has the power to maintain runners sincere with throws coming within the mid-90s from the outfield. Whereas there’s some danger related to the profile, the upside is just too thrilling for Montgomery to presumably fall out of the primary ten alternatives.

  1. JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia, MIF, 5’10” 190lbs

Wetherholt entered the 12 months seen by many because the slam-dunk 1.1 choose on this 12 months’s draft. Sadly, he handled some hamstring points and missed time, inflicting him to slip a bit down draft boards. He got here again in the direction of the top of the season and put up some stable numbers, cementing his place once more as one of many high gamers within the class with a shot nonetheless to be chosen with the primary general choose. In 36 video games performed, he posted a triple slash of .331/.449/.589 with 8 residence runs and extra walks than strikeouts. Beneath the hood, the metrics and batted ball knowledge all look fairly stable as properly. He posted a max exit velocity of 110.9, however his ninetieth percentile exit velocity was 108.2. It’s a minimum of above-average uncooked energy, and I might place it at a 55 grade at present, although I’m strongly inspired by the minimal separation between the ninetieth percentile and the max in terms of exit velocities. He hit the ball onerous at a 57% clip final season. His launch angles are a lightweight yellow flag for me, as he hit the ball at 10.6 levels on common, with that quantity leaping to fifteen.6 levels on his hard-hit balls, which is definitely an encouraging signal. Wetherholt definitely profiles as successful over energy sort participant, although I do suppose there’s extra energy right here than some folks might imagine. Nonetheless, the hit software is definitely spectacular and a 70-grade software for me. He has spectacular bat-to-ball expertise, as he posted a 15.3 whiff share on the 12 months. His method and plate self-discipline are additionally glorious, as he solely chased at a 14.10% charge final season. I might wager that whichever group drafts him will make a concerted effort to get him to hit the ball within the air a bit extra constantly, however the pure hitting skill and bat-to-ball expertise will definitely entice groups near the highest of the draft. On the defensive facet of issues, he has extra of a shot at sticking at shortstop than his top-of-the-board middle-infield peer Travis Bazzana. West Virginia made a concerted effort to provide him appears to be like at quick after he returned from his damage, and he made a couple of spectacular performs on the place. Wetherholt gives premiere hitting skill with sneaky uncooked energy and an opportunity to stay at probably the most beneficial positions on the sector, and he will definitely be in competition for the primary general choose.

  1. Jac Caglianone, 1B, Florida, 6’5” 250lbs

Whereas the “Jactani” moniker could also be an aggressive parallel, Caglianone has been probably the most spectacular and thrilling school athletes all through the previous couple of years. To not put too positive a degree on it, Caglianone’s method on the plate is reckless. He chases at a 38.3% charge on the school stage, a stat that might make him unplayable on the subsequent stage if he doesn’t get it underneath management. With that being mentioned, there’s a cause Caglianone finds himself within the high 5 on each draft board. When he hits the ball, he mashes. I want there was a greater, extra subtle phrase I might use, however there’s actually no different approach to describe it. Jac places all of his 250 kilos behind his swing to generate a 111.7 ninetieth percentile exit velocity and 122 max exit velocity. He battled Charlie Condon all 12 months for the house run crown, and whereas he fell quick, he nonetheless hit 35 homers via the course of the season. I really feel fairly assured calling this a 70-grade energy profile. One other encouraging factor concerning the profile is that regardless of the regarding chase charge, Caglianone does an excellent job of constructing contact with pitches within the zone, solely whiffing at a 7.8% clip. Moreover, he solely strikes out 8% of the time, lowering issues concerning the chase charge. If he can enhance his plate self-discipline and reduce down on his 53% swing share, Caglianone might find yourself being one of the best participant on this class. He’ll be a positive defender at first base, however as with virtually all first basemen, you aren’t drafting Jac for his protection. He has a rifle for an arm and has been as much as triple digits, though that may possible be rendered ineffective at first base. Caglianone hits from an open stance which is conducive to a pull-heavy method and causes him to be barely inclined to offspeed low and away. Search for him to make some changes in that division as he strikes up the rank. Though there’s nonetheless a reasonably lengthy developmental journey, Caglianone’s uncooked potential solidifies him as one of many higher gamers within the class.

  1. Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest, 1B, 6’5” 235lbs

Kurtz has one of many extra thrilling and explosive offensive toolsets in all the class, although he lacks the positional versatility and defensive worth as a few of the different guys on this checklist as he appears to be fairly locked in as a primary baseman. Nevertheless, there needs to be sufficient offensive worth for Kurtz to be a beneficial middle-of-the-order bat on the skilled stage. He struggled a bit this 12 months at Wake Forest, as he was pitched round a bit and struggled to discover a groove. Nevertheless, that didn’t final lengthy, as he went on a torrid stretch in the midst of the 12 months and confirmed the entire offensive instruments that had him positioned so excessive on boards going into the 12 months. This season, he slashed .310/.522/.772 with 22 residence runs and extra walks than strikeouts. He flashes comfy 70-grade uncooked energy, with a max exit velocity of 114.6 and a ninetieth percentile of 110.4. He accesses it ceaselessly in video games, working the ball across the park whereas posting a mean launch angle of twenty-two levels and a mean launch angle of 24.4 levels on his hard-hit balls. Kurtz additionally doesn’t swing and miss a a lot, as he posted a 20% whiff charge on the 12 months, with a 12.8 in zone whiff share as properly. He additionally not often expands the zone, chasing at solely a 13.5% clip this 12 months. The flexibility to not broaden the zone will serve him properly as he enters professional ball, and even when the swing-and-miss jumps up, he ought to be capable to hit the ball onerous and within the air sufficient to proceed to be a mainstay in the midst of the lineup. It’s a mature method with a 55-grade hit software and 70-grade energy for me at current, and although he can be a primary baseman on the subsequent stage, the offensive toolset and high-level energy projection needs to be sufficient for him to be taken within the high 10 of this 12 months’s draft.

  1. Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard Westlake (CA), 6’3” 195lbs

In my eyes, Rainer is the highest prep prospect on this draft class. He’s additionally one of many few gamers in all the class who deserves to be spoken about as a possible five-tool prospect. There are few obtrusive holes in Rainer’s sport, and whereas the 19 12 months previous will definitely want time to develop, it’s simple to get excited concerning the instruments he possesses. He makes contact at a stable clip and might be a 55-grade hitter. Moreover, Rainer was spectacular on the showcase circuit final summer time, posting top-tier exit velocities that confirmed his energy potential. Whereas he’s in all probability solely at a 55-power grade proper now, I might simply see him getting as much as 65-power grade quickly. After getting on an enormous league energy routine, I’d think about Rainer provides 15-20 kilos permitting him to faucet into his uncooked energy and switch a few of his potential into precise sport worth. Defensively, it’s too early to inform the place Rainer will find yourself, though I believe he has pretty much as good of an opportunity as anybody to stay at shortstop. The actions are superior and the arm will definitely play from quick. If he ultimately strikes away from shortstop, the California prep product might use his plus arm to play third or anyplace within the outfield. Rainer will possible get an enormous bonus thrown his approach throughout the first ten picks in an try and encourage him to forgo his dedication to Texas.

  1. Konnor Griffin, Prep (LSU recruit), MIF/OF, 6’4” 210lbs

Griffin possesses probably the most tantalizing profiles in all the class, with loud instruments throughout the board. At simply 18.2, Griffin is pretty younger for the prep class, however his sport has been superior past his age for a couple of years now. On the defensive facet of the ball, Griffin has an opportunity to play a number of premium positions at a excessive stage, as he has performed each shortstop and heart subject successfully. I might wager on him being a middle fielder long run, the place his 6.36 velocity and 96 mph arm will enable him to be a plus defender on the highest stage. On the plate, he reveals actually spectacular uncooked energy, with some query marks across the hit software. I’d place him in the identical class as Vance Honeycutt, with each having explosive instruments and a few lingering regarding traits. Griffin hasn’t been examined in opposition to high-quality pitching as a lot as Honeycutt, so the hit software might very properly not be as large of a problem as Honeycutt’s, however the slight hitch in Griffin’s swing is a minimum of mildly regarding for me at current. Once more, nevertheless, he’s nonetheless solely 18 and the abundance of athleticism, twitch, and power-speed mixture ought to see him taken early on this 12 months’s draft. Griffin has a few of the most fun potential and highest ceilings within the class, although the ground could also be a bit decrease than fellow prep hitter Bryce Rainer. 

  1. James Tibbs, OF, Florida State, 6’0” 200lbs

Tibbs is among the extra constant performers on this draft class, and subsequently one of many least talked about. After a stable marketing campaign for the Seminoles in 2023, he was one of many high performers on the Cape final summer time, placing him on the map and constructing momentum for a robust 2024 season. Tibbs made essentially the most of that momentum and continued to rake within the 2024 season with a .379/.481/.818 slash line. There isn’t something significantly thrilling about his profile, however he’s a stable participant that may greater than possible be a stable major-league participant. The Florida State product has a powerful method, strolling at a 15% clip whereas solely putting out 9.8% of the time. His contact high quality is superb as he averages a 93.3 mph exit velocity and has a mean launch of angle at 15 levels that means that he hits a variety of line drives. He can hit the ball to all fields, and regardless of searching the fastball, has proven development in his skill to deal with spin. Tibbs is a below-average athlete who can be a below-average defender anyplace on the sector and can possible find yourself as a nook outfield possibility who additionally rotates in at first base and designated hitter. If Tibbs’ consistency over the previous couple of years is any indication of what’s to come back, the group that drafts him is a man who’s on a quick observe and can be capable to anchor a lineup for years to come back.

  1. Cam Smith, Florida State, 3B, 6’3” 229lbs

Cam Smith joins fellow Florida State teammate James Tibbs III as one in all our high 15 hitters on this draft class. Smith actually burst onto the scene within the Cape Cod league final summer time, and this success actually carried over into his 2024 marketing campaign at Florida State the place he posted a slash line of .384/.483/.653 with 16 residence runs and a 1.39 Ok/BB ratio. He has a clean, albeit prolonged, swing that gives some actual influence when he will get it on the barrel. The batted ball knowledge was actually stable this 12 months, with a max exit velocity of 115.7 and a ninetieth percentile of 111.3. The uncooked energy is definitely plus right here, however he has a tough time accessing it in-game resulting from sub-optimal launch angles. He hit the ball on the bottom 52% of the time final season, with a mean launch angle of 4.8 levels on common. His common launch angle on balls that he hit onerous was barely higher at 10.9 levels, however there’s nonetheless loads of room for enchancment on this space. The group that selects him will virtually definitely make a robust effort to get Smith to elevate the ball an excellent bit extra to permit the uncooked energy to play extra ceaselessly within the sport. This may trigger some struggles early on in his skilled profession, however he’s nonetheless solely a sophomore and there’s loads of time for him to determine that out and have a stable profession on the subsequent stage. All the instruments are there for him to be an actual energy menace on the subsequent stage, and the hit software is a minimum of above common as properly. He doesn’t have a lot swing and miss within the profile, as he solely whiffed at a 17% clip final season. He’ll present worth over at third base, however the offensive profile would be the carrying software for Smith as he enters skilled baseball. All the instruments are current for him to have a profitable profession as a power-hitting third baseman with an above-average hit software, he’ll simply have to elevate the ball extra constantly to essentially faucet into his big-time energy projection.

  1.  Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee, 6’1” 210lbs

One of many key items to Tony Vitello’s championship squad, Moore doesn’t match the standard second baseman mildew. His high-energy method to the sport and uncooked energy helped propel the Vols to their finest season in class historical past. Regardless of his compact construct, Moore was one of many higher energy hitters within the nation, hitting 34 bombs all through the 2024 season. He slashed .383/.449/.782 for the Volunteers, good for a 1.231 OPS. He’s aggressive on the plate, particularly within the zone, swinging at in-zone pitches at a 75% charge. The method wasn’t detrimental to Moore’s success this 12 months, largely resulting from his 65% hard-hit charge. He’ll in all probability find yourself at second base however may be capable to play left subject as properly. Moore grades out as a mean runner and fielder so should hit to make himself a serious league mainstay. The swing is explosive and Moore’s arms are extremely fast, nevertheless, he tends to have an extended bat path in an try and make more durable contact. This sacrifice is extra affordable on the school stage however will depart him susceptible to excessive velocity on the subsequent stage. The workforce that drafts Christian will possible look to simplify the swing and optimize it to generate essentially the most energy in essentially the most environment friendly approach. With some sprucing and a refined method, Moore might find yourself being a .270 hitter that has true 25 residence run energy.

  1. Vance Honeycutt, UNC, OF, 6’3” 205lbs

Honeycutt possesses a few of the most explosive instruments on this 12 months’s draft, with 4 of the 5 instruments at above-average or plus. He’s a terrific runner, a lockdown defender in heart subject, has a stable arm, and reveals some actual uncooked energy. The hit software, nevertheless, is comfortably beneath common and an actual trigger for concern. This previous season, Honeycutt put all of his instruments on show, slashing .311/.403/.689 with 26 residence runs and 28 stolen bases. It’s a very stable power-speed toolset that might blossom into an elite offensive profile if he can scale back the chase and whiff charges. The batted ball knowledge reveals Honeycutt’s spectacular uncooked energy, as he posted a max exit velocity of 115.5 and a ninetieth percentile of 109.4. When he does make contact, he’s tapping into his uncooked energy successfully, with a sprig chart exhibiting heavy motion to the pull-side within the air. His launch angles can attest to this, as his common was 17.7 levels and his common on hard-hit balls was a stable 24.8 levels. Whereas it’s nice that Honeycutt has proven the power to do injury when he’s making contact, I’m involved that he merely gained’t make sufficient contact to supply a lot offensive worth. He posted an in-zone contact charge of 79% with a 32.1% whiff charge and a 26% chase charge. These holes are solely going to get extra exploited as he begins his skilled profession. The mix of all of his different instruments will definitely be sufficient for him to be chosen early on day 1, however I’m very fascinated about monitoring his development within the minor leagues. If a company can determine a mechanical tweak that they wish to make and hopefully improve the bat-to-ball expertise, Honeycutt might be an extremely harmful participant. He has one of many larger ceilings within the class, but in addition a decrease flooring. Both approach, he needs to be a plus defender in heart subject with plus energy and velocity, the one query is that if he’ll hit sufficient to supply optimistic worth.

  1. Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State, 6’1” 185lbs

Benge is sort of a jack-of-all-trades sort of man, with a profile that often finally ends up being very profitable in the long term. The Oklahoma State product isn’t significantly flashy, however he’s a stable participant who has produced for the Cowboys all through his school profession. There isn’t something regarding about Benge’s profile, the largest query is how will he differentiate himself from different related prospects whereas rising via the farm system. Benge walked and struck out at a 16% charge exhibiting his superior plate self-discipline. He labored counts all 12 months lengthy and solely swung at 64% of pitches within the zone, considerably decrease than most. The affected person method paid off as he was capable of take walks and put himself into favorable counts. The most important factor I can nitpick is his 8-degree common launch angle which implies that he’s hitting floor balls at a charge larger than most organizations would like. Regardless of that, his launch angle on onerous hit balls is 15.6 levels that means that when he hits the ball onerous it’s typically on a line. Benge is a prototypical mid-first-round choose and can possible discover himself coming off the board in that vary.

  1.  Ryan Waldschmidt, Kentucky, OF, 6’2” 205lbs

Waldschmidt has risen steadily up boards all through the 2024 marketing campaign, showcasing a stable all-around offensive toolset with minimal big-time flaws to his sport. This 12 months at Kentucky, he slashed .330/.467/.608 with 14 residence runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 1.12 Ok/BB ratio. Beneath the hood, his batted ball knowledge and underlying metrics are stable as properly. He posted a max exit velocity of 112.4, with a ninetieth percentile of 108.8. It’s not 80-grade energy by any means, nevertheless it’s comfortably an above-average software for me. He’s additionally capable of faucet into it constantly, with a mean launch angle of 14.7, a hard-hit launch angle of 15.3, and a sprig chart that reveals a number of fly balls to the pull-side. He reveals a stable method as properly, with solely a 17.3% chase charge, an 88.1 in-zone contact charge, and a 19.9% whiff charge on the 12 months. He hits the ball onerous 58% of the time, and he posted a .454 xWOBAcon in 2024. Not one of the instruments are going to leap off of the web page and wow you, however he’s been a stable SEC performer, has very minimal holes to his sport, and has above-average hit and energy instruments. He’ll present some defensive worth in a nook outfield spot shifting ahead, however his offensive manufacturing will paved the way. 

  1. Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State, 6’0” 220lbs

Jordan is unquestionably the largest wild card out of this group however is one in all my private favorites. That’s not essentially an endorsement, I simply discover his profile fascinating and am very fascinated about seeing how his profession performs out. Dakota initially determined to move to Starkville as each a baseball and soccer participant, which might simply be guessed after his huge construct and seeing his unbelievable uncooked athleticism. Jordan’s exit velocities are proper on tempo with Montgomery’s and within the high 5 of all of NCAA with a 97.2 common exit velocity and 64% hard-hit charge. His xwOBAcon is a powerful .513 so it’s clear that when he’s making contact he’s a menace. I really feel that “when he’s making contact” is a good lead into this subsequent part, the place it ought to turn into clear that “when” was the operative phrase of that assertion. Dakota Jordan’s strikeout charge via 259 2024 school plate appearances was 29.3%. There are a variety of scouts who will have a look at that quantity and cease studying the remainder of the report. Jordan whiffs on 35.1% of the pitches he sees. Each of those statistics are going to want to alter for him to even make it out of A ball. Moreover, Dakota’s 8.1 launch angle will have to be adjusted so he can elevate the ball extra and higher faucet into his 65-grade uncooked energy. To me, Jordan nonetheless appears to be like like a soccer participant attempting to play baseball. He isn’t nice within the subject however has the velocity and the arm to ultimately be a stable heart fielder or plus proper fielder. The freak athleticism is evident, and the potential is evident. He simply wants time to proceed to develop to understand that potential As of proper now, you’re in all probability a 4-year developmental path right here on the naked minimal, but when Jordan can shortly and successfully implement the modifications his group needs to see, his path might be accelerated. Regardless of all of the work that must be finished, there’s cause to consider that Jordan will be capable to rise to the event. He’s improved immensely over the previous couple of years and has the athleticism to proceed doing so.

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