The sector for the Grade 2 $175,000 HPIbet Autumn Stakes options 5 horses coming off wins and 6 stakes winners and will likely be one of many featured races this Saturday at Woodbine.
Main the sector in profession earnings is Paramount Prince, winner of the Grade 3 Dominion Day Stakes and Grade 2 Seagram Cup Stakes back-to-back this summer season earlier than a fifth-place end within the Durham Cup Stakes. That race was gained by Dresden Row, who then gained the Grade 3 Ontario Derby final month. Bail Us Out was only a half-length behind Dresden Row within the Ontario Derby and may enhance, as can Durham Cup third place finisher Stanley Home. Artie’s Storm gained the 2023 Durham Cup and enters the race following a powerful win in a dash prep following 11 months off. Tosen Want gained a prep race final month on turf in his second begin since importing to the U.S. and may enhance. Without end Souper has gained three straight stakes races in a row together with the Presque Isle Mile Stakes and goes for his 10th profession win in his 19th profession begin. By no means Shocked enters the race off a win in an allowance race however proved he belongs in prime firm when second within the Grade 1 2022 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes. Conflict Bomber has completed second or third in 4 straight stakes, all at shorter distances, however does possess a win at this 1 1/8-mile journey. Lac Macaza gained the Niagara Stakes on turf in September and should add depth to the sector. Depraved Django and Sir London each earned their wins this yr in allowance firm and seem a bit overmatched at this Grade 2 stakes degree.
High Contenders:
Artie’s Storm seems to be the precise horse on the proper time to win this yr’s Autumn Stakes. He returned off an 11-month layoff virtually 4 weeks in the past, possible with this race in thoughts, and ran fantastically properly. That was a six-furlong dash and contemplating his final 10 races previous to that had been routes it seems he’s all set for his finest effort, which is nice sufficient to win. It’s because final October Artie’s Storm gained the Durham Cup Stakes on the barely shorter distance of 1 1/16 miles with a powerful 109 Equibase Velocity Determine. That wasn’t his finest effort ever, as he led late and settled for second within the 2022 Durham Cup with a 115 determine. Within the prep race final month, Artie’s Storm earned a 109 determine which he’s extremely possible to enhance upon second off the lengthy layoff. Jockey David Moran was aboard for the prep win in addition to for the close to miss within the fall of 2022 within the Durham Cup and within the Seagram Cup Stakes previous to that. Significantly with Paramount Prince prone to set a powerful early tempo, Artie’s Storm appears poised to make a powerful late run ok to win this race.
By no means Shocked gained 4 of 16 races by this previous Might for prime coach Todd Pletcher however then transferred to the barn of Kevin Attard. This previous July, when racing in his first two-turn race since altering trainers, By no means Shocked ran probably the greatest races of his profession when main from the beginning earlier than settling for second, incomes a 103 determine. Again in 2022 within the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational on the identical distance of the Autumn Stakes, By no means Shocked earned a career-best 112 determine when main till simply earlier than the eighth pole then settling for second. Now stretching again out to the space of his finest effort, the largest query could also be how By no means Shocked might run on all-weather for the primary time. That query was answered in a scorching latest half-mile exercise the place he ran 46.4 seconds and the quickest exercise amongst 67 on the day on the distance.
Tosen Want ran 13 occasions in his native Eire earlier than importing to North America between Might and August of this yr. In his first begin for Mark Casse in September, Tosen Want didn’t run a lot in any respect when eighth of 10. Nonetheless, he improved markedly in his subsequent race, on October 12 at Woodbine, when rallying from final of eight to win by a neck with an enormous late rush. That effort earned a 104 determine which he’s anticipated to enhance upon in his third begin since coming to North America. Though each begins for Casse had been on grass, there’s little doubt Tosen Want can run as properly or higher on all-weather as he’s by no means been worse than second in 4 begins on the floor, all in Eire, together with a 104 pace determine effort final summer season. With jockey Sahin Civaci driving again after being within the saddle for the primary time final month, Tosen Want might go a bit unnoticed by bettors given his lack of stakes races in North America and has a shot to run properly at excessive odds.
4 others deserve honorable point out. Paramount Prince, winner of the 2023 King’s Plate Stakes, likes to go to the entrance and has been very robust when allowed a straightforward lead, recording six wins from 13 begins. His finest effort earned a 108 determine when successful the Seagram Cup Stakes in July at 1 1/16 miles. Nonetheless, at this distance he solely earned a 100 pace determine successful the Dominion Day Stakes in June and in his most up-to-date race, even when on a straightforward early lead, he pale badly to fifth within the Durham Cup Stakes. Dresden Row and Bail Us Out completed first and second, respectively, within the Ontario Derby final month, every incomes 103 figures. That race was restricted to 3-year-olds solely so each are going through harder foes right here as most of those are older horses. Nonetheless, Dresden Row gained the Durham Cup Stakes previous to that and versus older competitors with a 110 determine. Nonetheless, Dresden Row might be deprived by an excessive outdoors put up which could trigger him to lose floor on the primary flip or expend an excessive amount of vitality within the early levels to get a ahead place and keep away from dropping floor, notably as he’s raced no farther again than third after a half a mile in all his two-turn races. Equally, Without end Souper will get the farthest outdoors put up within the gate, so though he’s gained three stakes in a row, the most effective with a 107 pace determine, he may additionally be at an obstacle as he has the identical operating model as Dresden Row.
Maybe not a contender to win, Stanley Home is a horse to think about for second and third on exacta and trifecta tickets performed. He doesn’t have plenty of late kick, having run evenly within the final eighth of a mile in his final 4 races. Simply the identical, he earned 106 and 107 figures in his final two when third behind Dresden Row within the Durham Cup and when second behind Lac Macaza within the Niagara Stakes. Previous to that, Stanley Home completed second twice in a row behind Paramount Prince.
The remainder of the sector, with their finest Equibase Velocity Figures in an analogous race, is Lac Macaza (109), Sir London (105), Conflict Bomber (106) and Depraved Django (102)
Win Contenders, in choice order:
